Member Info for Markyess

Hi Canaries, there is a Calidus BB on ADVFN as well as the Hot Copper forum.

NMH19 - bear in mind the shares aren’t actually issued until Friday, but, there is a very good chance CAI won’t pull back given POG, proximity to production and that the raise was a critical step on the plan to that realisation.

That's a fair and inescapable point, Jim!

But sub £5m?? For a company that returned around £21m in value to its shareholders inside of the last 12 months? It still beggars belief.

I hope so.

It still baffles me that this one has a MCAP of sub £5m given the proximity to fast cash flow in a high demand/growth mineral. It can only be sentiment and I hope for a swift correction when financial reports start to show turnover, profit and dividends.

The fact that this little sub £5m company actually spun out the $130m Calidus in very recent memory should mean sentiment is higher as it stands. Let alone the fundamentals of the remaining projects.

I do think the high volume of issued shares works against us. Certainly market reactions to trade volumes is inconsistent against a near 3bn base of issued shares. I almost can't wait for us consolidating and moving to a sensible number here.

Haha, I based my valuations on my jaded view of market sentiment as experienced with Keras over the years.

If it was based on our sentiment, it'd be worth $1bn by Christmas!

It's definitely going to be a fun journey.

How nice would that be?! How about a target timeline:

150m - October 1st 2020 - DFS
250m - January 2021 - Fully funded for production
500m- January 2022 - First pour and progress on drilling at Otways, 10+ year LOM increase at Warrawoona
750m - December 2022 - PFS @ Otway plus additional LOM from Warrawoona (St Georges Shear?)
1bn - September 2024 - Production commences @ Otway

Just for giggles - it'd be nice though!

An exceptional vote of confidence in CAI and DR and board by the gold market. 25% oversubscribtion and extending the raise could be a very clever move. It publicly highlight the demand and confidence in us.

With $25m plus the cash reserves already in bank, it's possible we're now done with equity raises until final stages of construction and multiple re-rates.

There's a very, very good chance this will be trading well above the raise price in short order.

It's great to see this newsflow in Oz whilst our manganese play is in enforced hiatus. I am so excited about where both of these plays will be in 12 months time.

ATB
Mark

It's certainly a thought, Prop - I would think with the proximity to production for Warrawoona and Otways about to go under the drill, I would think we'd avoid over stretching ourselves at the moment, financially, from a risk perspective and in terms f management focus.

If an absolute gift of an opportunity comes along, we might be less likely to wave it by if we have a $2-3m on hand (and supreme confidence it will add MCap in short order).

It's a great question, Prop - and that is precisely why I want to see what Alkane do.

JimBL had commented on Hot Copper that he'd seen a since deleted article suggesting that Alkane will take their pro-rata entitlement in the capital raise and maintain their current position. If that's all they do, then it'd suggest we're going it alone for now.

I still have a question mark over where the remaining $10-15m of non-debt finance will come from - but it doesn't represent a significant enough investment to suggest a JV - unless we're looking to reduce the debt percentage. If that were the case then I'm not sure we'd have done the c/r so early.

More questions than answers at the moment.

Quite interesting to read that some recent Australian gold peers actually saw their share price rise off the back of a similar capital raise exercise. I'm going to hunt down the specifics, but it'd be great to see Calidus follow the trend.

After all, additional equity is a critical milestone towards moving us closer to production and significant profit inside of just 18 short months!

Honestly Jim, I'm in a similar boat. I have a significant house renovation project on hold, pending full funding by (hopefully a smallish portion) of my Keras holding.

It has been a frustrating journey, but I struggle to see any obstacles in our way now - barring the global pandemic, and the abysmal performance in our country in managing it.

I don't know for certain, but I would be very confident in stating that we won't see any progress until Gnassingbe and his team are able to look Lamming square in the eye and have as many publicity generating photo shoots as possible. Were this deposit in Western Australia, the formalities would have been done over Zoom!

ATB
Mark

I'm with you Jim. The big differences this time are that the project has been given a public stamp of approval in Togo and the corporate structure has now been set up and finalised ready for production. The fact that this is now a common knowledge, job producing project in Togo, pressure for momentum is not just coming from Keras Resources, but from the Togolese people too.

Covid-19 is what it is. We are insignificant against it and we need to wait for it to play out. On the positive side, there is negligible detriment to KRS whilst we are on care and maintenance and (likely) receiving financial support from the British government.

We've just got to wait out the current global challenge.

Hi Prop,

The timing certainly interests me. There's still far too many variables at this point to come out with any definitive hypotheses. My rough estimates had us raising in 2-3 months time at ~65c/share. Let's assume that the talk of a $20m raise (at 51c/share) is accurate for now.

I wonder if the fact we do have some decent funding behind us, and off the back of a recent price hike actually influenced the decision to perform a raise - with clear evidence that it is not a raise under duress. With $25m in the bank (plus the illiquid equity assets we hold from the conglomerate rights sell off), it will make discussions with lenders that much easier.

I would anticipate that we'd need somewhere between $10-15m in additional non-debt capital to fund and commence production, assuming a 70-30 debt ratio. Are we gambling on a re-rate down the line that would make a further raise less dilutive?

It will be easier to make some assumptions when we see what Alkane do (or don't do) within this raise.

With knowledge of how Dave Reeves and this BoD operate, I am currently assuming that there are one or two aces up the sleeve - that we are as yet unaware of - that will make this raise make a whole lot more sense in short order.

I daren't speculate on the news much further at the moment. The good thing about the ASX, we'll only have to wait a couple of days maximum to get a much clearer view of the picture.

I know, and I share your frustration and enthusiasm for progress. Unfortunately, given the UK's poor performance in managing the virus to date, it's not going to be quite so straight forward as traveling on via a 'cleaner' lay over country.

The BoD have a huge amount of skin in the game with this one, it's in their interests to move as fast as they can - but there are external factors that are currently prohibitive.

I don't think there's anything to report with the preventative Covid measures in place. I don't want us to be wasting cash on an RNS that says 'still no news guys'.

It would be nice to see RL as active in interviews as Dave is, though.

Suggestions it will be a $20m raise at 51 cents

A vital step in the process. I was expecting it a little later, but maybe with $6m in the bank and the recent positive price run, the time is right.

The values, levels and timing intrigues me. I have a number of questions (nothing concerning) but will keep my counsel until we know a bit more, from or after the next news release.

Let's hope that they're prepared to let the 'dirty man of Europe' in.

And I don't mean our South African CEO.

Hang on, it's deja vu all over again.

I will certainly be raising a glass or two to Steve when this takes off. Top man. Rest his soul.

It's my pleasure.... I think.... ;-)

Would you not be as well moving just your Calidus shares, and leaving the Keras ones in the HL wrapper for now?

Appreciate it'd be double fees, but I suspect that KRS news is highly likely to land inside of the migration window.

Schedule the CAI shares to move now, and wait until the license issue and move the Keras holding separately?

Just a thought. :-)