RE: Value of Graphite Asset7 Nov 2017 18:24
The bottom line is: behind all the corporate issues Armadale has an attractive graphite asset with a Jorc inferred mineral resource estimate of 40.9Mt at 9.41% TGC. This means that they are essentially sitting on top of 3.8Mt of actual graphite and not just any graphite. 48% of what they have tested is Super Jumbo, Jumbo and Large flake size and this has a dramatic effect on the price it can be sold for (prices sourced from here: http://northerngraphite.com/graphite-pricing/ )
XL flake $1,750/t (+50 mesh)
Large flake 1,150/t (+80 mesh)
Medium flake $950/t (+100 to -80 mesh)
Small flake $700/t (-100 mesh)
With the ACP graphite having a purity of at least 97.6% then it is in the top range for quality globally.
To do some quick and dirty maths � the 29th September 2017 RNS told us that ACP had the following graphite size percentages:
3.6% Super Jumbo
20.9% Jumbo
23.5% Large
If we assume (guess) that the other 52% is divided equally between 50% medium and 50% small then we can attach the following fag-packet calculations of value to the asset:
40.9Mt Graphite at 9.41% = 3,848,690 TGC
24.5% Jumbo or above = 942,929 tonnes @ $1,750 / t = $1,650,125,838
23.5% Large = 904,442 tonnes @ $1,150/t = $1,040,108,473
26% Medium = 1,000,659 tonnes @ $950 / t = $950,626,430
26% Small = 1,000,659 tonnes @ $700 / t = $700,461,580
In total the potential market value of the graphite is $4,341,322,320. (�3.3 billion)
Now, I am not claiming for a second that the market value of ACP should be anywhere near this figure. The mine will only produce the graphite if it gets built and even then production will take a number of years (perhaps 10?) and there will be overheads associated with the production (Syrah state on page 13 of their latest presentation that their opex is expected to be $400 / tonne dropping to $300 per tonne as their planet reaches full capacity: http://www.syrahresources.com.au/application/third_party/ckfinder/userfiles/files/Equity%20Capital%20Raising%20Presentation-19Sep17.pdf
If ACP can match the Syrah costs then they will be making the following profit from production:
24.5% Jumbo or above = 942,929 tonnes @ $1,350 / t = $1,272,954,150
23.5% Large = 904,442 tonnes @ $850/t = $768,775,700
26% Medium = 1,000,659 tonnes @ $550 / t = $550,362,450
26% Small = 1,000,659 tonnes @ $300 / t = $300,197,700
Total = $2,892,290,000 (�2.2 billion)
I am not claiming the company should be worth �2.2 billion either � as even with the overheads taken out the plant still has to be built and still has to produce over a number of years.
However, as a rough calculation it is not unreasonable to assume that the kind of value that should be attached to ACP now should be 1% of this �2.2 billion (�22 million). At the moment the market cap is worth barely 0.21% of the product�s potential end market value.