Member Info for MarketGunslinger

itsagame - in my experience shells that are taken over by people who know what they are doing are almost always successful in the short term. They bring new opportunities (resouces) and new finances to the shell (investors). For a brief and beautiful period the interests of all involved (management, large investors and retail investor - us) are all perfectly aligned and it is in the interest of everyone to get the share price going up as high and as quickly as possible, The directors cannot treat it as a lifestyle company because then they **** off their rich friends and so they work hard to bring in the results.

Investing in a (well run) shell is a very safe investment when it comes to AIM. After the first flush of success then you have to rely on clever management with good deal-making nous but in the first instance it is hard to go wrong - especially if we are buying at less money than Forum originally paid for their shares.

Canary, Zen has two exploration possibilities with massive upside and (assuming BMD) is right with the West African 1500 bopd purchase they also have a share in 2,200 bops production.

Assuming (and I realise it is a significant assumption) that Zen also get 22.5% of the West African asset then alongside Tunisia that would give them 22.5% of 2,200 bopd or 495 bops net to Zen.

At $10 POO = $4,950 per day / $34,650 per week / $150,563 per month / $1,806750 per annum
At $20 POO = $9,900 per day / $69,300 per week / $301,125 per month / $3,613,500 per annum
At $30 POO = $14,850 per day / $103,950 per week / $451,687 per month / $5,420,250 per annum
At $40 POO = $19,800 per day / $138,600 per week / $602,250 per month / $7,227,000 per annum
At $50 POO = $24,750 per day / $173,250 per week / $752,812 per month / $9,033,750 per annum

Obviously, Zen does not get keep all of this as there are some significant Opex figures to come out but even taking these into account it is a hell of a lot of potential money coming in every year for a company with a £6 million market cap. Put in the exploration upside of both Congo and Azerbaijan and you have a company that is making multibag money from production alone and with the potential to multibag the multibag if exploration is successful. The production also significantly limits the exploration downside which is just as important (as AAOG can tell you).

PS - sorry all for the double post but I wanted to make sure my reply was in the right place for Canary to see it.

Thank-you Ezhik, that is very interesting. I will have to go and read up on the potential of the Azerbaijan exploration possibilities. If they are as potentially rewarding as you say though then that gives two exploration possibilities with massive upside and (assuming BMD) is right with the West African 1500 bopd purchase then it also gives them a share in 2,200 bops production.

Assuming (and I realise it is a significant assumption) that Zen also get 22.5% of the West African asset then alongside Tunisia that would give them 22.5% of 2,200 bopd or 495 bops net to Zen.

At $10 POO = $4,950 per day / $34,650 per week / $150,563 per month / $1,806750 per annum
At $20 POO = $9,900 per day / $69,300 per week / $301,125 per month / $3,613,500 per annum
At $30 POO = $14,850 per day / $103,950 per week / $451,687 per month / $5,420,250 per annum
At $40 POO = $19,800 per day / $138,600 per week / $602,250 per month / $7,227,000 per annum
At $50 POO = $24,750 per day / $173,250 per week / $752,812 per month / $9,033,750 per annum

Obviously, Zen does not get keep all of this as there are some significant Opex figures to come out but even taking these into account it is a hell of a lot of potential money coming in every year for a company with a £6 million market cap. Put in the exploration upside of both Congo and Azerbaijan and you have a company that is making multibag money from production alone and with the potential to multibag the multibag if exploration is successful. The production also significantly limits the exploration downside which is just as important (as AAOG can tell you).

callit - it would be nice to think it was planned but wasn't it Napoleon who said that he'd rather have a lucky general than a good one?

Maybe we have our lucky general in Andrea Cattaneo LOL!

AGEOS - that is very interesting information. However, do you think that ZEN still has as much focus on Azerbaijan nowadays as they did in the past? Surely with the new Congo assets then the exploration upside there outweighs the upside in Azerbaijan? AAOG certainly spent enough money on it. That said, my knowledge of ZEN is weakest in Azerbaijan compared to everywhere else so I am sure you know more about that than I do.

For me, the really exciting thing about ZEN at the moment is the way they are starting to balance production assets with exploration assets. Having cash coming in on a regular basis and also having the potential lottery win of exploration seems to me to be like the perfect balance for a small cap oiler.

BMD did indeed call it right with the Tunisian asset and it looks like he is ahead of the game again.

AC has definitely been busy. The 12th March Update on Acquisitions RNS mentioned:

1) Tilapia oil field , The Congo = done, for a bargain £200k
2) Tunisia - share of a 700 bopd $15 million asset = done for $500k
3) West African Assets 1000 + bopd = looks like it is about to be done according to BMD
4) Acquisition of Coro Energy's Italian gas production portfolio = still waiting but wouldn't bet against getting hold of this for a bargain price wither.

So two of the four done. One on it's way and we can assume that the last one will follow shortly afterwards.

I do like the fact that BMD is saying that this is a 1,500 bopd license. That is 50% up on what Zen mentioned in the RNS.

We have just acquired an asset that will deliver cashflow (Tunisia) and an asset with amazing future upside (Tunisia). The market needs to recognise this and the sooner the better.

He's only posting on the Zen board because he is so furious that Zenith got control of Tilapia and the Jub Capital team of which he was part didn't. Apparently, Tilapia is a brilliant asset when it belongs to him and a terrible one when it doesn't.

That is an extremely impressive RNS. The key takeaway for me is the fact that we have already received $350,000 from SOCAR. I was not sure if we would ever receive any money from them, but the fact that they have made this first payment bodes well for receiving a much bigger chunk of money gradually over the forthcoming months.

Yesterday we announced that the company had paid off $1 million since October and therefore debt was substantially reduced. Today we announce that we should be receiving over $1million in the near future and that we have already been paid some of it.

This is a VBERY good news RNS. The company is being set up to be in the best position it has been in years from an investors point of view.

AAOG is a shell now.

Forum do not want anything to do with the assets that were in the company before they effectively took control. Forum have no intention of developing Tilapia, which is why they sold it to Zenith for a song. They simply want to get it off the books so that they are not incurring any further costs in an asset which they have no intention of developing further.

This is a good deal for both sides. Forum get £200k cash and they get rid of the expense of having an asset on the books that they have no intention of developing . Zenith get an asset that they ARE interested in developing and that compliments their strategy of otherwise buying production assets - so they have a basic income as well as the upside of a major exploration play.

Forum are not stupid though. The did not sell a very good asset for next to nothing because they thought that somebody else would develop it better than they did - they gave it away because it brought in some cash, cut out some expenses and left the field free for the assets that they want to bring it. They clearly think that the assets that they are bringing in are going to be worth more to the company and it's shareholders (of which they are by far the biggest) than the ones they have just got rid of (or they would not have got rid of them).

Forum are just cleaning house in preparation for new assets coming in as part of the RTO. As Tiburn says below, these are not necessarily going to be petroleum assets and could quite easily be mining assets instead. However, either way, they think that the new direction of the company will be profitable for them - and therefore to all other shareholders from 0.5p up.

it is a new management team in place (or will be soon) with new projects and a new outlook. THis is generally a good thing for shareholders from this position as the people who are running the company will do everything that they can to take the price up from here.

This is a very good investment point for AAOG and is why I have been getting in gradually over the last few weeks.

GLA.

mls678 - we did not announce this in October.

1) We announced on October 24th 2019 that we had renegotiated our debt so instead of the total being US$2,080,523 (US$1,485,000 plus interest) we were now just paying $1 million (a saving of US1,080,523). This was good news, but it still meant that ZEN owed $1 million less the first tranche payment.

2) Today we announce that the debit is completely paid off. So instead of owing $1 million less the first tranche payment we owe nothing. This is even better news, because the company (whose market cap is £5 million) is now approx. $1 million better off than it was in October.

The company is almost $1million better off today than it was in October. That translates into £800k or 16% of the market cap.

No this is still wrong.

1) We announced on October 24th 2019 that we had renegotiated our debt so instead of the total being US$2,080,523 (US$1,485,000 plus interest) we were now just paying $1 million (a saving of US1,080,523). This was good news, but it still meant that ZEN owed $1 million less the first tranche payment.

2) Today we announce that the debit is completely paid off. So instead of owing $1 million less the first tranche payment we owe nothing. This is even better news, because the company (whose market cap is £5 million) is now approx. $1 million better off than it was in October.

As I said, there is a world of difference between negotiation a debt down and announcing that you have paid it off.

Quite simply, this is a totally different (and much better) announcement. For you to keep claiming that it is the same thing is an outright lie.

mls678 - Don't change the subject to something else once your original lie has been called out. Address the original issue and admit that the post you made at 8.06 was completely wrong.

To confirm - you claimed that the RNS today was a recycling of the RNS from Oct 24th 2019. In reality, the announcement today showed that the company had paid off nearly $1 million worth of debt between Oct 24th 2019 and today.

mls678 - with respect, the RNS of the 24th October stated that ZEN had agreed to reduce the debt payable to $1 million and had paid the first tranche of that. Today they announce that the debt has been completely repaid.

There is a world of difference between saying that you have agreed to reduce your debt liabilities by 50% and then saying that you have paid off the debt and no longer have these liabilities.

The bottom line is that on Oct 24th Zen owed a lender $1million less the first tranche of payments. Today they own the lender nothing. The company is almost $1million better off than it was at the beginning of November.

"I am a member of a small "informal" private investment group. "

In my experience that is code for a gang of traders who get together to pump up shares and leave their fellow investors holding the baby when they get out. They are the kind of people not to be trusted at all because everything that comes out of their mouth is just designed to get others to increase the value of investments that they have already made - either while they are long or short.

Why else would someone who has apparently been out of this share for months have made 80% of his posts in the last 30 days on a share that he is not invested in?

It's just one of those days. All oilers are going down on tiny amounts of shares sold and nobody wants to buy today until the oil price stabilises a little. Unfortunately this means it will be a bad day, for Zen as well as all the other small cap oilers.

On the plus side for us, at least we are putting together projects that will really pay off when the oil price stabilises which should see us with a platform to move back to 1p+. When the recovery kicks in properly then the true value of the deals being done with desperate competitors will really be picked up by the market.

How may small cap oilers are there out there who have revenue from production as well as very significant (£100m +) exploration upside? Not many is the answer.

I have never seen the oil sector in such a chaotic mess. Oil prices that are actually negative is something that I never thought I would see in my lifetime.

However, one thing that is always true is that out of chaos comes opportunity, and those that seize the opportunities that are there now will benefit significantly in the future. As long as we believe that the world will still need cars and planes and ships and plastic then the demand for oil will return with a bang and when it does those who have acquired the right assets in this time period will be the beneficiaries. As Warren Buffet famously said: “Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”.

I hope AC still has his buying suit on as this is the opportunity of a lifetime.

As Cliveas has rightly pointed out below, the Tilapia deal and the Tunisia deal are likely to be far from the only deals that we can expect from Zenith in the near future. So far they have only spent £700k of the $2 million mentioned in the Letter of Intent RNS on March 31st. I would expect news on the West African production assets and also updates on the potential Coro gas acquisitions in the near future.

Also, given that £105k has been sold into today's rise already plus roughly the same done on Friday, we are starting to really burn through the overhang from the last placement. Once this is cleared then this share should rocket. £170k+ traded already today which is starting to be a big number.

All the ducks look like they are lining up nicely for ZEN at the moment and I think that this is only going to be the beginning of the ride.

We need to get rid of those who want to get out asap. Then the share price can start to shift forward and deliver a pair representation of the value of the assets that are starting to be in this company.

When one of the other shareholders in the venture is the China National Petroleum Corporation you can definitely be sure that Tunisia will not mess around with the deal. China does not take kindly to having anyone mess with it's state owned assets and they carry a very big stick.