Member Info for MarketGunslinger

There are no new shares in issue and there is no additional dilution on the way.

If you look at the details on Zenith here: https://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=ZEN&share=Zenith-Energy you will see that this website shows that there are 1,269 million shares in issue with a market cap of £11 million. This is correct (and it includes outstanding warrants)

If you look at all of the announcements that Zenith have made recently they show 1.2 billion shares in issue in Oslo and 313 million shares in London. This is because the Oslo listing includes all of the shares in issue but the London one does not show the 955,488,507 admission shares that are listed in Norway but cannot be added to London until the prospectus is completed.

Essentially this is an administrative matter that is caused by having a dual listing in London and Oslo. The shares issued in Oslo go straight onto the exchange there but they have to have a prospectus issued in order that they can also be listed in London and Zenith have not released the prospectus yet because they wanted to get the company focus moved from Azerbaijan to Africa first.

In short, it is an administrative matter only and will not effect the share price.

The Prime Minister of the Congo and his government resigned two days ago as the political landscape there has started to take shape after the Presidential election. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/06/c_139927155.htm

The news report says that President Nguesso is, in accordance with the Congolese constitution, expected to appoint a new prime minister to form a new government in the coming days. This should mean that we get a new oil minister appointed this month and then we should start to get some progress on the formal granting of the Tilapia license.

There is a process that needs to be followed for Zenith to receive the license and the company has been very clear about this. Zenith to get the new Tilapia license:

1. The President Denis Sassou Nguesso needs to win the election (Done)

2. Once DSN has won the election he will need to be inaugurated before he can appoint ministers and begin the process of running the country (this was completed in late April)

3. Denis Sassou Nguesso then needs to appoint a new Prime Minister and cabinet of ministers to run the country. The relevant appointment that relates to Zenith is the appointment of the Minister for Hydrocarbons (we still waiting for the President to do this but yesterday’s resignation of the existing PM was the first step).

4. Once the new Minister for Hydrocarbons is appointed (and JMTT and Teresa Goma are kicked out) then we can expect that we will proceed with the next stage of the license renewal which is getting the Production Sharing Agreement sorted out. (as the new Minister for Hydrocarbons needs to approve this).

5. After the PSA is sorted then it goes to the cabinet of ministers to be ratified (so this cannot happen until the cabinet is appointed).

6. 5. Finally, it goes to parliament for final ratification into law. Only after all of these five stages are completed will Zenith receive the 25 year license for Tilapia.

Mls – you appear to completely misunderstand how warrants work. This is not a placing that was issued by the company today it is an investor who already owned the warrants choosing to exercise them. The company have no control over when a warrant owner does this.

The comment that it is a “big dilution” is also completely wrong. It is 0.4% more share issued and since the warrants were already in issue it should already have been priced into the market cap.

Finally, the other point to note is that the warrants were exercised at a higher price than either the UK or the Olso markets were showing today (0.12 in Oslo and 1p in London) so the warrant owner clearly has faith that the shares are going to be trading at a much higher price than they are today in the near future. Oh, and the company also raised £450,000.

There are no “usual tricks” here and no "big dilution" – just a complete misunderstanding of how warrants and the stock market works. Or out and out trolling…

I see that Tunisia is the base step in the development of Zenith as a serious O&G developer. Tunisia will provide the revenue to cover the company's costs and the revenue to service debt repayments. From the conference call earlier this month we know that AC wants to ultimately fund all exploration and development out of the bonds instead of placings but we cannot do this until we have regular cashflow coming through the company from oil sales.

Once we get up to 1,000bopd in Tunisia then we are really well situated for exploration to get to the next stage which would be 10,000bopd. This will have to be done through exploration and development in new territories as Tunisia itself only produces 35,000 bopd throughout the whole country. Congo, on the other hand, produces 350,000 barrels.

The way I see it is that we are concentrating on Tunisia for the moment and acquiring as many production assets with development potential that we can. Selling the stored oil will pay for all of the development/workover costs in Tunisia and the result of this development will provide us with a substantial income going forwards - 1,000bopd giving us a gross revenue of $22 million and a net of about $11million (assuming $30 costs).

We also know from the conference call that AC expects that we will be drilling Tilapia in autumn this year, so between now and then we will be concentrating on Tunisia and the acquisition of new assets both there, within the Congo and in Nigeria.

The Congo is always going to be very important in our development towards AC’s stated aim of having us produce 20,000 bopd by the end of 2022. We know that Tilapia ha the potential of producing 5,000 bopd and no dobt we are looking at other licenses that are similar. However, we also know that AC sees Nigeria as the big exploration prize with licenses there regularly delivering 12,000 bopd.

So my view on this is that we concentrate on improving production in Tunisia while we wait for the Tilapia license to be improved with a potential to get up to maybe 2,000 bopd with good workovers and the acquisition of 1-2 more assets. We then look to get 1,000 bopd from a single well in Tilapia this autumn with a view to then drilling others shortly afterwards to get production there up to 5,000 bopd. We then look at assets in Nigeria to take the next step forwards. Starting small, getting bigger and then going for very big options with a strong safety net behind us.

AC’s ambitions are definitely big. 20,000 bopd is $438 million per annum gross revenue. Getting anywhere near that number should give the company a market cap of many hundreds of millions of pounds – but he has to prove that he can do it first and showing profitable oil production in Tunisia is a very good first step.

Docit - From reading my post earlier, do you now understand the process which needs to be gone through for Zenith to be granted the Tilapia license?

All of us investors should understand the relevant steps that need to be completed for the Tilapia license approval process to avoid unnecessary panic at imagined delays. .

Our license approval cannot proceed until the Minister of Hydrocarbons is appointed - so this is the next key Congo step for us to watch out for. Only once this is done can the PSA negotiations be finished and approved.

Key elements of today’s RNS
1) An additional 125 barrels of oil coming into the company each day – gross value $7,500 per day or $2.3 million per year with a guess that the net value will probably be approximately half of this.

2) This takes the current production in Tunisia to be: 245 bopd(SLK), 203 bopd(Ezzaouis) 125bopd (new license) – total current production 573 bopd. The value of this (at $60 oil) is $12,548,700 gross per year and therefore approximately $6 million (£4.5 profit)

3) The announcement also states significant development potential in the new acquisition. One well used to produce up to 600bopd and could do again after remedial work and another has the potential to deliver an additional 175bopd after drilling activities.

4) AC has explicitly said that he expects our production to almost double from 573bop to 1,000bopd just from the development program that he plans to carry out at these existing acquisitions. This would mean a gross revenue of $22 million per annum and therefore a net of about $11 million – which would make the company not only self-financing but also profitable.

5) If they think that they can generate an additional 775bopd just from remedial work at the new license and there will also be an improvement after the works at Ezzaouia then (assuming all goes well) then we may find that the figure of 1,000bopd for production is actually rather conservative.

This is a very exciting RNS. What I particularly like about it is that we are now not just buying assets that have existing production but we are buying assets that have significant development potential too. The company is building a really solid income stream quietly in the background and when the Tilapia license is approved then the market will catch up with this and we will all be in line for a massive re-rate as a company that can pay it’s own way while still having huge exploration upside.

Docit, at the end of March you were on this site alleging that the company had not updated shareholders about Congo since 23rd December 2020. This was incorrect. You are now claiming a stumbling block exists based on nothing more than your desire for news.

You have to understand that there is a process that needs to be followed for Zenith to receive the license and the company has been very clear about this. I have written this in full a number of times, but here it is again. For Zenith to get the new Tilapia license:

1. The President Denis Sassou Nguesso needs to win the election (Done)

2. Once DSN has won the election he will need to be inaugurated before he can appoint ministers and begin the process of running the country (this was completed 3-4 days agon).

3. Denis Sassou Nguesso then needs to appoint a cabinet of ministers to run the country. The relevant appointment that relates to Zenith is the appointment of the Minister for Hydrocarbons (still waiting for DSN to do this).

4. Once the new Minister for Hydrocarbons is appointed (and JMTT and Teresa Goma are kicked out) then we can expect that we will proceed with the next stage of the license renewal which is getting the Production Sharing Agreement sorted out. (as the new Minister for Hydrocarbons needs to approve this).

5. After the PSA is sorted then it goes to the cabinet of ministers to be ratified (so this cannot happen until the cabinet is appointed).

6. 5. Finally, it goes to parliament for final ratification into law. Only after all of these five stages are completed will Zenith receive the 25 year license for Tilapia.

The idea that Tilapia “is dead in the water until further notice” is complete untrue. It merely demonstrates that you have misunderstood how the process works. At the most basic level, how can the Ministry for Hydrocarbons approve the PSA when there is no Minister for Hydrocarbons appointed to approve it?

Hi Ymir - thanks very much for the offer of help. I have just sent you an email.

This is a message to all the Norwegian posters who are on this board .

I have been trying to join the https://finansavisen.no/forum/register website, but I have no Norwegian telephone number to fill in and I never get an email response. Does anyone have any idea of how the registration process is meant to work and how I would go about becoming a member of the site from outside Norway? Are people from outside Norway not permitted to post there?

Any help would be much appreciated.

Thanks,

MG

I have just seen Upside’s post stating that Dennis Nguesso has now been sworn in for his fifth term and he will now be about to appoint his cabinet including the Minister for Oil.

This is a significant step forwards for Zenith in the acquisition of the Tilapia license as it means that, for the first time since we acquired the license we will finally be dealing with a minister of Hydrocarbons who is an ally of the President instead of an opponent.

As we all know, Zenith’s contacts within Congo are at a presidential level and AC made it pretty clear a while ago that the company were banking on the President, their ally to be re-elected. He even pointed out that he thought that in the event of DSN’s re-election that we would no longer have to deal with the same people that we were dealing with in the Ministry of Hydrocarbons at the moment.

Remember, the previous Minister for Hydrocarbons Jean-Marc Thystère-Tchicaya and his Director of Hydrocarbon, Teresa Goma clearly hated Zenith – hence their consistent leaking of damaging and un-verified allegations against the company to Africa Intelligence. I am not sure why there was so much antipathy from them but assume that they had their own plans in mind for who they wanted to receive the new Tilapia license and perhaps even their own financial incentive for backing a different horse in this race…

Now JTT and TG will no longer have any influence in the Ministry of Hydrocarbons and working on the assumption that the new appointment as Minister will be an ally of the President and not an opponent I think that Zenith’s road forward will get much smoother. We have already completed the first steps in our journey with DSN’s election win and his swearing in. Now the government is back up and running we should expect some action soon. The next key milestones are the appointment of the new minister and the agreement of the Production Sharing Agreement – which should happen shortly after the ministerial appointment.

After the PSA is agreed then this has to receive of ministerial approval and then finally Parliamentary ratification which, all being well, I think that we should see by the end of May or early June. Make no mistake, significant steps are coming, and coming soon.

Congo
1) Andrea is going back to Congo on 24th April.

2) There has been no progress on new acquisitions there or the issue of the PSA because of the elections. The President will be re-inaguurated in a few days and will then announce his new government and then after this life in the country will restart.

3) We are confident that we will drill Tilapia this year but it will not be until the second half of the year as we have to sort out license and customs for the rig. We are aiming for a drill in fall (autumn) 2021.

4) We are very confident in our claim against the SNP and very happy with our lawyers. SNP did two other terrible drills in Congo so there is a pattern of failure. We are confident that the Paris courts will decide in our favour (possibly even higher than the $3.1 million that we have asked for. We expect a judgement in approx. 12 months time.

5) SNPC money is $5.7 million plus further interest (no running total kept). Relations between us and the SNPC are “excellent” and once the new president is installed there will be more finance available to the SNPC. We are very confident about recovery of 100% of the money owed.

Nigeria Information

1) Nogeria is a difficult country to operate in. An example of this is that originally with the marginal field bids it was meant to be one winner per field and they have now changed it to multiple winners with no consultation.

2) We have been talking to many figures in Nigeria and this has opened up other opportunities to us unrelated to the marginal fields. We have not had any confirmation that we have won any bids on the marginal fields but nor has anybody else, Once we hear anything then we will tell the public. At t moment neither us nor our partners in lagos have received any informatopn about the status of our bid.

3) We are interested in Nigeria because the fields there tend to produce in very big numbers due to their geology (5k,7k,12k bopd is common there) so operating a concession could be very lucrative.

Overall

The aim over the nest 12 months is:
1. To have steady production in Tunisia (with the company owning stakes in 3 different assets and producing 2,500 bopd gross from these three assets in the next 12 months)

2. To have drilled a well targeting between 1,000-5,000 bopd via a relatively derisked drill in Tilapia(as we know that we just have to drill a sidetrack off the previous drill)

3. To acquire an opportunity in Nigeria which has the potential to be very big (12,000) bopd if it comes off.

I listened to the Investor conference call earlier and it was very informative. I would be very much interested in re-hearing the full recording when it is made available to see nay bits that I have missed but in the meantime here are the highlights from the notes that I made during the meeting.

General Information

1) We have found bargains because of the transition to green energy. This means that a lot of bigger companies are transitioning out of difficult countries and marginal fields. This works in Zenith’s favour as their priority is exiting and not getting the best price.

2) We hope to improve these assets by being more interested in them and being more aggressive about how we push them forward. We will also make the operating structure leaner and reduce the cost of workovers by using our own kit.

3) We are continuing to work on raising money by bonds but it is a slow process. The end target is to get or bonds to a BBB rating and then at this point we will start raising money by bonds instead of equities.

Tunisia Information

1) Our current Tunisian assets produce 1,000 bopd (45% to Zenith)

2) Over the last 20 years in Tunisia there has been no new drilling but just the workover of old wells. Now the Tunisian govt is keen to get all operators to start drilling new wells as well as just operating old ones. Many operator s do not want to do this and would rather sell them instead of running a drilling campaign – which is where we come in. We currently have 3 announced transactions (1 completed and two pending) and we hope to complete at least 4 in 2021. Our production target for Tunisia over the next year is 2,500 bopd (gross with 45% net to Zenith).

3) We intend to use our workover rig in Tunisia from the second workover onwards (as it takes time to negotiate bringing it into the country without paying customs duties). Drilling a workover in Tunisia costs $300k-$500k and we have budgeted $1.2 million to drill all three and have targeted an increase in production of 500 bopd when these are completed.

The reason that there have been no updates since Feb 10th – is clearly because nothing has happened since Feb 10th as the country has been preparing for and carrying out an election. As I said back on the 23rd March there are five steps that are needed to be completed before we get the Tilapia license granted to Zenith.
1. DSN needs to win the election – this step has already been completed.
2. Once DSN has won the election he will need to appoint a cabinet to reward all of those who have had his back during the election and then the business of government will get back to normal. Hopefully this should not take more than a couple of weeks.
3. Once the new Minister for Hydrocarbons is appointed (and JMTT and Teresa Goma are kicked out) then we can expect that we will proceed with the next stage of the license renewal which is getting the Production Sharing Agreement sorted out – though there is a decent possibility that this could be started even without the new minister being appointed.
4. After the PSA is sorted then it goes to the cabinet of ministers to be ratified (so this cannot happen until the cabinet is appointed).
5. Finally, it goes to parliament for final ratification into law.

Only after all of these five stages are completed will Zenith receive the 25 year license for Tilapia and only after we have the 25 year license will we send the rig over to commence the work. Personally I think that it will be the beginning of May at the earliest before we get the Tilapia license and so the rig will be sent in late May or early June IMO.

The next key stage that we have to look out for is the appointment of the new Minister for Hydrocarbons. Once this is announced I think that we can expect to see some movement from there.

Docit, the 23rd of December is not the last time that the company have updated shareholders on Tilapia progress. In actual fact there was an RNS released on February 10th entitled: “Successful completion of IPU in Congo” https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZEN/successful-completion-of-ipu-in-congo-hd5vr3nz75mu6is.html

The RNS announced that the IPU stage of the license granting had been successfully completed and that “the Company will now proceed with the potential finalisation and ratification of the Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") for Tilapia II.”

You will also no doubt be aware that the release of this information caused the almost instant publication of an article from Africa Intelligence claiming that this announcement had “provoked the ire of Congo's head of hydrocarbons Teresa Goma” and then went on to explain that they had seen a letter that she had written to them about this on 15th February accusing them of claiming that they had been granted the whole license (which they had not claimed). This caused an enormous furore when Zenith said that they had never received this letter and threatened legal action against Africa Intelligence.

It did open up my own investigations into Teresa Goma though, who is apparently known in the Congo as a volatile character who has a strong dislike of anybody with a different colour skin-tone to hers. AC also made a response to an investor from the Oslo boards where he said that “I would also draw to your attention that the General Elections are fast approaching in the Republic of the Congo - they are scheduled to take place on March 21, 2021 - and it is likely that the lady mentioned in this article will be replaced. This kind of behaviour should be seen in this context.” It was a pretty strong response from our MD and made it clear that he saw Teresa Goma and her boss Jean-Marc Thystère-Tchicaya (the minister for Hydrocarbons) as not on our side.

When I looked further into the history of JTT it became clear why AC sees him and TG as enemies. You can check my post history for full details but to cut a long story short JTT appeared to blackmail Denis Sassou-Nguesso (the President of the Congo) into appointing him as Minister for Hydrocarbons just before the 2015 election as the price for his party supporting DSN in that election. In July 2018 JTT was accused of embezzling 2 billion CFA francs in an accusation that was widely seen as a political manoeuvre designed to spike his guns early as he was suspected of having ambitions for the 2021 presidential election. Obviously that election has taken place now and DSN has won it, so there is no question at all that JTT will now be sacked as Minister for Hydrocarbons and, judging from what AC said in his email then Teresa Goma will be sacked with him.

2. Zenith have issued 7% more shares in order to raise £725,000 which they say will be used to fund field development activities in the Ezzaouia concession. It is sightly irritating that we have a dilution just at the time that we were all hoping that we might be approaching the stage when the assets we have acquired would pay for themselves. However, with the Tunisian political crisis causing the delay in our approval for SLK (and the associated millions of dollars that come with it) then I guess it is a sensible precaution.

As ever though what is more important that the fact that the company has carried out a placing is the plan for what they are going to do with it. I think that what is interesting here is the line that “Proceeds from the Offering will be deployed to fund planned field development activities to be performed in the Ezzaouia Concession”.

The detail putout in the purchase RNS of March 15th stated that “Planned field production optimisation and workover activities are expected to increase Ezzaouia gross production to 1,000 bopd (potentially resulting in a production of 450 bopd net to Zenith).” While we are clearly not going to instantly increase the production levels of Ezzaouia from 465bopd to 1,000 bopd with one workover, it is perfectly possible that we could increase it by a further 100 bopd via this process. After all back in 2011 Candax had Ezzaouia producing at over 1,000 bopd following a development program that consisted of two sidetracks and three workovers.

100bopd increase (45 net to zenith) would deliver a gross revenue of over $1 million per annum so assuming that they workover is successful in delivering a significant increase then it would certainly be a worthwhile spending of the money raised.

I think that the other key thing the establishment of a field development program for Ezzaouia does is set to rest any further queries as to whether the license approval for the new 20 year license is definitely going to be received or not. It is, as there is no way that they company would be investing hundreds of thousands of pounds in a development program if they were not certain to receive the license

Well a lot appears to have happened this weekend…

1. In the Congo the main opposition candidate has died of Covid the day before the election, thus increasing DSN’s chances of winning significantly (though in my opinion this was not really needed as the election looks as if it was only ever going to end one way). I made a joke last week that DSN would probably still win even if he died before the election, which seems in pretty poor taste now. But with the death of the main opponent and the country’s main opposition party not fielding a candidate his victory looks like a formality now.

Once the election is over (and we should find out the official result by Wednesday/Thursday) then we can expect a quick cabinet reshuffle and the imminent removal of office of the troublesome JPTT and his minion Teresa Goma. This should then allow the Tilapia license approval to go through in April/May. Obviously, nothing is certain in a country like Congo but the victory of DSN would definitely be pushing things in the direction that Zenith want it to go and, just as importantly, the country will get back to doing things (such as granting oil licenses) after the recent electoral hiatus.

What are the repercussions if he doesn’t win?
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I think that it would definitely cause difficulties for Zenith if DSN didn't win as it would probably mean that AC would have to effectively begin negotiations again with a new boss figure to schmooze. I don't think that it would be terminal for our ambitions but I definitely think that it would cause delays.

That said, the more I read about this election the more I think that DSN pretty much cannot lose. The largest opposition party is already boycotting the ballot and there seems to be a sense that his victory is inevitable. One report here has the quote from a local law student that: "There's no point voting, the dice are loaded in advance." https://ewn.co.za/2021/03/19/congo-veteran-sassou-nguesso-looks-to-extend-rule-in-election

The Independent report from earlier today is even more scathing and makes accusations of the military voting in advance as uniformed officers and then going out on election day and voting again in civilian clothes while at the same time running the quote that:

"“The political climate appears much calmer than in 2016. It is as if the opposition has already resigned itself to Sassou N'Guesso winning re-election,” said Maja Bovcon, Senior Africa Analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.

Frankly, the Republic of Congo does not seem like a place where the elections will ever be anything like fair and it seems to me that DSN will keep a grip on the country until he dies. This does not make it the sort of place that I would want to live, but it does look as if AC has once again backed the right horse.

From everything that I have read it seems like the only chance of DSN not winning the election is if he drops dead before election day - and even then the ballot boxes will probably have been so stuffed with his votes that he will be elected from beyond the grave.

I have just done a bit more digging on Jean-Marc Thystère-Tchicaya (JMTT) and it makes for some pretty interesting reading.

He is the President of the Rally for Democracy and Social Progress (RDPS) party in Congo which was created by his father, Jean-Pierre Thystère-Tchicaya (JPTT), in 1990. The party was based, Pointe-Noire which is the oil centre of Congo and it was designed solely to support JPTT’s political ambitions. Importantly, it never managed to expand it’s power-base outside its home region.

In the 1992 elections the RDPS won 9 seats and JPTT stood in the Presidential election but only received 5.8% of the vote.

From 1997 onwards the RDPS became a member of Denis Sassou-Nguesso’ spresidential majority and supported the president in each election. However, it only won 4 seats in the 2002 legislative elections and 2 seats in the 2007 elections. In 2008 JPTT died and was replaced by Bernard Mbatchi and at the 2012 elections it won 5 seats. In 2015 it was the third biggest party in the majority government with around 30 elected representatives (senators, deputies and advisers combined).

In May 2015 the party had a congress to elect a new leader where the only candidate standing was JMTT. At the same Congress it also announced that it would participate in the 2016 presidential elections with it’s own candidate. At the same time the outgoing President publicly announced that the alliance between the RDPS and the President did not benefit the RDPS because none of its members were ever appointed minister, prefect or director general.

It was a fairly unsubtle act of political blackmail but it worked. In August 2015 JMTT was appointed Minister for Hydrocarbons and in February 2016 the party announced that it would finally support the sole candidate of the presidential majority, and asked Denis Sassou-Nguesso to be this candidate.

Obviously, the payoff for JMTT’s support (or blackmail dependent on your point of view) was the position as Minister of Hydrocarbons and so there was no way of easily removing him after the election. However, as I mentioned earlier he was always considered more of an enemy than a friend of DSN and after the it only won 3 seats in the July 30th legislative elections and 2 seats in the August 31st Senatorial elections then it was seen as a significantly weakened force. Shortly after this DSN pounced and it was in July 2018 that JMTT was accused of embezzling 2 billion CFA francs in what was seen as a political act designed to prevent him being a threat in the 2021 Presidential election.

With his party weak, his relationship with President DSN in tatters and the fact that he only got his position as Minister of Hydrocarbons through political blackmail 6 years ago it is inevitable that JMTT will be dismissed as Minister for Hydrocarbons when the new government is formed. As long as DSN wins that is…

References:

https://tinyurl.com/yhk8ry74
https://tinyurl.com/yg6x3odm

What can we expect to happen after the election (and assuming that DSN is once again re-elected as President)?

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I was looking into the background of the Minister for Hydrocarbons in the Congo. He is a man called Jean-Marc Thystère-Tchicaya and he has been in office since August 20th 2015. This date is important because it meant that he was in office for less than a year before the previous presidential election which would have made him impossible to get rid of after the election. However, he is clearly no friend of DSN. In July 2018 he was accused of embezzling 2 billion CFA francs in an accusation that was widely seen as a political manoeuvre designed to spike his guns early as he was suspected of having ambitions for the 2021 election (the one on Sunday).

Assuming that DSN does go on to win his fourth presidential election in a row on Sunday then I think that it is a safe bet to assume that Jean-Marc Thystère-Tchicaya’s term as Minister of Hydrocarbons will come to a fairly swift end and he will be replaced by an ally of the President. When he goes, his Director General of Hydrocarbons Teresa Goma will certainly be sent packing along with him, and this is clearly what AC and Zenith think is going to happen. If you recall from the email that was published on the Norwegian forums back in February AC actually wrote to a shareholder that “I would also draw to your attention that the General Elections are fast approaching in the Republic of the Congo - they are scheduled to take place on March 21, 2021 - and it is likely that the lady mentioned in this article will be replaced. This kind of behavior should be seen in this context.We have achieved a great deal of progress in the Congo and I would invite shareholders to draw confidence from this and not be misled, has had happened previously, by false speculation and deception advanced online.”

So, once Jean-Marc Thystère-Tchicaya and Teresa Goma are replaced I imagine that Zenith will quickly get on to the finalisation and ratification of the Production Sharing Contract ("PSC") for Tilapia II. I assume that this will be completed during April and then the final license approval will go before Parliament for formal ratification at the beginning of May.

All we have to hope for is a successful election result for DSN this Sunday. I never thought I would be so interested in an Africal election result lol.

The attention of all Zenith investors should be on the Congolese elections this weekend.

Zenith are clearly allied to the incumbent president Denis Sassou Nguesso as we can see from the picture of AC alongside him: https://twitter.com/CattaneoGenoa/status/1321781146091401220 and so I guess the company and all it’s shareholders will be hoping that he will win his third consecutive term in office.

The likelihood is that he will win. He has been President since 1997 and 2002 he received 90% of the votes, in 2009 he received 78.61% of the vote and in 2016 he received 60.19% of the vote. Although his share of votes has declined over time it is still worth noting that in the last election his closest rival only received 15.04% of the vote so he was fully 45% ahead. There is therefore no reason to assume that things should be much different this time.

As with everywhere else, elections are a very sensitive time on the Republic of Congo. In the 2016 election the government banned the use of motor vehicles and also blocked telephone and internet communications as well as putting out a large number of security forces on the day. There were claims from the opposition that the results were fraudulent but nothing came of them. I have no idea what the truth of the electoral fraud situation is in the country – but I think that it is definitely one of those places where there are a number of factors that will make it very difficult for any opposition candidates to unseat a sitting president and I am glad that Zenith have nailed their colours to his mast.

Judging by the timelines of the 2016 election, which was held on the 20th March and had partial results announced on the 22nd March and the full results on the 24th March we can probably expect a strong indicator of the winner by Tuesday 23rd March 2021 and an official result by Thursday 25th March 2021.