Member Info for marik

Greenmile, good luck with GGP but this won't be down at these levels for long, I would expect it to shoot up in the near future.

HarChris, you are right there are possible stumbling blocks.

> We don't know how long the protection lasts
> We have no idea if the vaccine reduces viral shedding
> How much of the public will take up the vaccine with many who are covid deniers
> Any adverse reaction in the public will be publicised

Should the vaccine hit stumbling blocks, then the market cap will be bigger, but not by that much. Initially in the next 6 weeks this will go up to £4 and hit the lower broker target price. On approval this will be hitting close to £20 per share.

One thing to remember is that Synairgen never produced this drug to cure the world of covid-19. You would have never been able to do that with 10,000 doses per month. The SNG team have been fully open and aware of this. Simply put, you can't treat our way out of this disease. It was always expected that we would have a vaccine, but the real value is that not only will SNG001 treat covid-19, but broadly speaking any of the many future predicted respiratory viral epidemic/pandemics. Expect this to be stock piled and the price to shoot up.

Synairgen has been heavily oversold as drug sng001 will still be required well beyond next year. Not only is it a broad spectrum antiviral, it also has very positive phase 2 results - for covid-19 and COPD. Both of which are very big markets.

SNG001 will be the main drug being used for the fight against covid and other viruses. Along with a strong performance in COPD.

Furthermore a number of questions remain on the vaccines by moderna and pfizer:

> the fda required them both to submit two months of data post inoculation, which means they will have 2 months of data. Why did they just provide the first weeks data showing 95% and nothing at 1 month and 2 months? Do the benefits tail off?

> the placebo groups had lower than expected incidence of disease. Why was that? Can it be explained through volunteer bias?
e.g. more of those who are careful (socially distance, wear masks and practice hygiene) registered for the trial, if they are careful to begin with, could they have had a lower infection inoculant i.e. a less symptomatic infection.

> The vaccine trials were not designed to answer the question of whether the vaccine reduces viral shedding (spreading). What are the expected values?

> For those who did get infected, why did they? Were they of particular age group or other indications e.g. diabetes?

> The suggestion is that we continue wearing masks and socially distance even after getting vaccinated. How likely are we to return to normal?

It will be interesting to see these questions answered in the coming weeks.

£50Bn to:

> Enhance testing capacity
> Purchase vaccines
> Increase supply of key Covid-19 medicines
> purchase and distribute PPE

Both covid-19 meds and vaccines are mentioned together. They will both be required.

Titania, you haven't missed anything. SNG will likely go very big once phase 3 is completed.

Some reality check:

> May is not realistic it's more wishful thinking. Expect autumn/winter next year.
> The Phase 3 trial is expected to be quick, it will start soon and the expectation from SNG team is that could be end of Jan. The trial can be stopped earlier if there is positive data.
> Pfizer, moderna and AZ have not released their data and it's not been reviewed.
> The vaccine numbers at the moment don't stack up, which I've asked about in a post below (in due course I presume we'll find out more).
> Despite vaccines, there is still a population who will get infected, for whom we will need therapeutics. This was the view of management from big pharma just two months ago.
> Flu jab hasn't resulted in flu meds to vanish.
> Recent acquisitions of covid-19 asset would suggest that there is a big need.
> The 100,000 production line per month will be stock piled. sng001 is effective against other viral respiratory infections.

I think the team should stick to covid and make their $300m per month in revenues.

All thanks to Oxford12 today [Today 10:23] for summarising the key points which the many new comers here will really appreciate:

Here’s why SNG is worth holding (or adding).

1) covid is not over. Look at the global stats. This is not going away anytime soon. We have a scientifically proven treatment that works. It will be approved shortly and 100k treatments A month will be fought over.

2) The vaccine will not be 90% effective in the real world. But let’s just assume it is. How long will rollout take? Will it get to every country in the world? Will it work for all groups of people? Even if it works to 90%, there’s still 10% of the global population needing treatment.

Now the really important stuff:

3) governments will not want this pandemic chaos to happen again, their short little attention span is very focused right now. Think of the stockpiling opportunity that SNG Offers as a broad spectrum antiviral against ANY future viral pandemic, and there are a few on the horizon. Monoclonal antibodies target one virus, SNG organises the immune response against any virus. Which would you buy for your “nuclear bunkers”?

4) worthy of its own point, SNG is a broad spectrum
Anti viral. If the COPD market doesn’t get you excited, think of it as the “viral penicillin”. Do you think anyone told Alexander Fleming that bacterial infections were solved? There is no broad spectrum anti viral currently. You are invested in a highly effective one.

Finally and very very important

5) long covid is affecting people of all ages all over the world. It’s debilitating for the individual, and healthcare systems. The numbers are growing rapidly. Scientific papers have suggested that interferon suppression is involved in long covid, leading the immune system to be hyper alert (google covid interferon and Rockefeller university if you haven’t heard about this). We are ideally placed to treat current and future cases of long covid. RM has added a review of patients in the p3 trial at 30,60,90 days. Genius. We could be the first drug proven to help long covid. Take a minute to think of the value of that.

That’s why we are holding here. These prices are ridiculous. The market thinks we treat only hospitalised covid patients and the numbers may decrease with a magical vaccine!

As WedMe used to say, this drug has more legs to stand on than a caterpillar.

Great post Oxford, I might open a new thread later with these points. It would really help new comers.

Those who volunteer for the study could be deemed as more cautious/careful compared to the rest of the population they come from. The comparison for the bias is between the volunteers and the rest of the population. The question remains as to how cautious they will have been post vaccination?

It's a valid question of why the rate of infection was lower than in the population from which the volunteers came from? And was posed by someone on the FDA advisory committee.

A number of questions remain on the vaccines by moderna and pfizer:

> the fda required them both to submit two months of data post inoculation, which means they will have 2 months of data. Why did they just provide the first weeks data showing 95% and nothing at 1 month and 2 months? Do the benefits tail off?

> the placebo groups had lower than expected incidence of disease. Why was that? Can it be explained through volunteer bias?
e.g. more of those who are careful (socially distance, wear masks and practice hygiene) registered for the trial, if they are careful to begin with, could they have had a lower infection inoculant i.e. a less symptomatic infection.

> The vaccine trials were not designed to answer the question of whether the vaccine reduces viral shedding (spreading). What are the expected values?

> For those who did get infected, why did they? Were they of particular age group or other indications e.g. diabetes?

> The suggestion is that we continue wearing masks and socially distance even after getting vaccinated. How likely are we to return to normal?

It will be interesting to see these questions answered in the coming weeks.

SNG001 phase 2 data was exceptional. Different therapies will be required at different stages of the disease - often these are complimentary.

> SNG001 phase 2 data has been exceptional for both moderate and severe cases
> phase 3 data is likely to be highly positive
> The trial could be stopped early if the rolling data is positive and Emergency Use Authorisation will follow

> In context, SNG001 has been developed alongside vaccines and is not a vaccine competitor, the market has over reacted
e.g. Flu jabs and flu therapies (SNG001) are both required

> The vaccine data although promising, hasn't yet been scrutinised and major questions remain
> Meaningful vaccine roll out is expected winter 2021
> Herd immunity will be tricky if virus shedding isn't reduced substantially or if the virus mutates
> Vaccine efficacy data for 1 month and 2 months was surprisingly missing from the recent headlines

> 100,000 doses a month for SNG is more than achievable and the price attached per treatment of 3K is not to be sniffed at
> Revenue of £/$ 300M per month is very big news
> Other markets for SNG001 include other viruses
> SNG001 has excellent data for COPD
> Both markets are VERY big

I agree the share price is likely to push higher. The vaccines have questions still to be answered. The requirement for therapeutics like SNG001 never went away, evident by the recent Merck acquisition of the OncoImmune covid asset.

Just for the flu, the seasonal flu jab doesn't prevent the sales of; Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab and Xofluza as well as many generics. Treatments and vaccines, both, are essential for the fight against Covid-19. The discussion about the use of both took place at a joint press briefing over 2 months ago with the management of Eli Lilly, IFPMA, Gilead, Pfizer and Roche amongst others having airtime. It was never the case that vaccines or therapeutics alone would be sufficient and BOTH will be required. Selling a 100,000 treatments a month on a global pandemic will happen with or without vaccines.

For short term investors, sentiment, which is NOT fact based, will increase price fluctuation. For those without blinkers, this isn't an issue.

Just for the flu, the seasonal flu jab doesn't prevent the sales of; Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab and Xofluza as well as many generics. Treatments and vaccines, both, are essential for the fight against Covid-19. The discussion about the use of both took place at a joint press briefing over 2 months ago with the management of Eli Lilly, IFPMA, Gilead, Pfizer and Roche amongst others having airtime. It was never the case that vaccines or therapeutics alone would be sufficient and BOTH will be required. Selling a 100,000 treatments a month on a global pandemic will happen with or without vaccines.

For short term investors, sentiment, which is NOT fact based, will increase price fluctuation. For those without blinkers, this isn't an issue.

Phase 3 start and completion will happen very soon.

Even without mutations, if "They think it's all over... it isn't!"

Some context as to why there is a feeling that hospitals are "empty" is that we are having very limited visiting. But if you look at the bed occupancy as of 1 October (general and acute beds) was back at 87%. So with many appointments and visitations reduced for other indications, this should come as no surprise.

The low 3k price comment was made at a sharesoc event, but is not to be taken lightly and importantly was made after Pfizer had already announced their results. RM, Prof H & Team are no doubt acutely aware of vaccines and the impact they would have. I would say it is something that is priced into the equation by the brokers target price.

The impact of positive vaccine data is something that PI's having DYOR will no doubt be aware of before investing. Or were they?! Those who weren't aware should have done some more research and as such the sentiment is changing to a more positive side now that some investors are becoming more experienced.

However, sentiment does not dictate the sale price of a drug or a final M&A deal.

We have news in the webinar with monthly 100,000 treatments at a $3000. You can assume that this will sell out the moment it will be produced. There have been 58 million cases this year.

The vaccine clinical trials are very different to therapeutics trials in their design and numbers and are therefore not comparable.