Member Info for marcus-aurelius

I'm a firm believer in Ukraine and this company, having held from virtually the start of this war, however I sold out yesterday. The mysterious lawsuits from unknown entities, the coincidences involving $500 billion rare minerals to Trump, more sanctions against Zhevago. In my opinion there is a major risk to this company from the Ukrainian government.

Ukraine will do whatever it takes to protect their sovereignty. I don't blame them for their actions, they are fighting a war, however anyone holding here now should factor in losing all or a significant portion of their holding.

I will also add that it looks increasingly more unlikely Trump is going to negotiate a fair peace deal for Ukraine. The man is more interested in taking credit for a "deal" rather than ensuring the long term security of Ukraine. If Russia gets rewarded for it's actions, then this war kicks off again in 2-5 years time.

Good luck all investors and Slava Ukraini!

Does anyone know the HRMC address for sending your tax forms (86) to ? Is it just the general PAYE address or is there a specific department? Having some bother locating information for this.

On the form, how would you list multiple purchases of Ferrexpo that occurred on different dates? Would it be acceptable to combine all stock purchases and list the last date of purchase? Does anyone have experience with this, or encountered this issue before and is willing to share their opinion. Thanky ou

I was unaware of this withholding tax before I purchased my Ferrexpo shares back in February. It was only brought to my attention through reading the posts made on this forum. I must say it seems like a lot of hoops to jump through to get the tax refund!

It appears from reading the official form, a self assessment tax return has to be completed as part of the process. Assumedly, this is needed as proof that you are a tax payer within the UK. The actual form itself that is sent to the Swiss Tax Authority is slightly vague, and complicated in areas. For example, for multiple different purchases of Ferrexpo, occurring on different dates; This requires separate entries in the form? The form explicitly asks for the date of the purchase of the security, then the dates of each dividend, so just say there are 4 dividend payments a year, and you have made 3 separate purchases of Ferrexpo- this requires 12 individual entries for dividends within the form?

I suspect, the risk of filling out a portion of the form incorrectly is relatively high. Does anyone have a guide, or does Ferrexpo offer any more information on how to ensure this form is filled out correctly? Might be easier to keep track of the dates of purchases and dividend payments and get an accountant to do it for you for a fee. Clearly I am biased, however, seems a bit odd for a company to list on the LSE, knowing that all residents of the UK will be charged 35% on their dividends.

Having to surrender first is not negotiations or offering peace talks. It is most likely Putin expected a fast victory, and now his forces are being bogged down by fierce fighting and logistical problems. I suspect a pro longed drawn out affair here, ultimately the Ukrainians, with the backing of Europe will emerge victorious. In the meantime, expect operations at Ferrexpo to be significantly affected, however the demand for it's product will be in ever more demand during the aftermath of all of this. peace

Shell wiped off almost $20 billion worth of debt in less than 2 years. In an environment of higher oil and gas prices, it looks significantly undervalued still.

In terms of a windfall tax on companies like BP and Shell, imo it would not be wise or fair. The market determines the price of energy, not the actual companies themselves. A higher tax is a good soundbite for politicians to win votes, but ultimately the action ends up damaging the industry, as less investment occurs. In much the same way as the energy cap made like 40 suppliers go bust, in the end its the consumer that suffers.

Who is going pay the trillions of ££ needed for the energy transition? The government? They dug their heels in at paying their nurses and doctors a 1% pay increase after the covid pandemic....

In my opinion oil will probably hit $90 soon, then $100 at the start of the next year, but $200 is a little sensationalist.

By the current oil price, Shell is still significantly undervalued. The cost of the transition is still weighing on investors mind, and uncertainty over future cash flows are the main reasons for the SP being held back. However, if oil prices stay high for even just another 6 months, this gives Shell the opportunity to significantly reduced it's debt and further help it's future objectives.

Everyone talks about a peak oil demand, however peak supply is not often mentioned. The lack of investment in infrastructure and new fields over multiple years has significantly constrained oil supplies. Petrol, gas, fossil fuel products, are just as popular as ever. High oil prices will be here to stay for some time to come, maybes even indefinitely.

Don't forget that customers who have to switch through their supplier going bust, do not keep their contract tariff. They are placed on a new contract, with a new tariff, with the new company. These new customers will basically be going onto Shell's lowest variable tariff, which is likely to be far higher than what they had before (bust companies were not hedged). The worst scenario for Shell in this situation is that they might be making a loss on some of these new customers, but it will be far lower than the loss being made by the previous company.

Shell cut the dividend, reduced debt and weathered the storm during 2020. It's a totally different environment now with higher oil /gas prices and more positive sentiment. The free cash flow of Shell over the next 2 quarters is going to be off the graph. With a special dividend likely to be announced, and a higher regular dividend, plus with debt being paid down further with these bumper profits, this can only translate into higher SP over the next few months.

esecallum a rights issue of 20 to 1 raises petrofac over £6 billion. Please tell us all what the company needs 6 billion for?

Apparently snapper knows more than the market, up 50% and still spouting the same nonsense. DYOR.

20% of the world's LNG sales come from Shell. It is hard to picture anything other than record breaking cash generation in the next couple of quarters. Potential special dividend next year from assets sales, increased regular dividend, a significant increase in profits, Shell is now even more undervalued than before.

Bearing in mind Shell is still trading well below it's pre pandemic price, I wouldn't be surprised if it surpasses £20 in the not too distant future.

Snapper, the case may continue against individuals involved, but the investigation into Petrofac is over. Petrofac made a settlement for £77 million. In all investigations the SFO have ever done, they leave the door open to go after individuals feat Rolls Royce, Airbus etc etc.

I wonder how much you have lost in the last couple of day shorting Petrofac. DYOR.

RealitBites, the investigation into Petrofac is over. Haven't you read the news recently. Ofcourse the SFO is more than allowed to open up new charges, if new evidence comes to light, but this applies to every investigation the SFO has ever done.

The SFO will always keep a close eye on companies, or "investigate" further, however on these particular charges Petrofac has made a settlement with the SFO. The legal pursuit of Petrofac is over. This is a new start for the company.

Ah the return of Snapper. This is most unexpected, I didn't expect to hear from this low life ever again. How's the 9 pence prediction coming along? Did you manage to close your short in time before Petrofac rose by over 70%?

Ok now to address the fabrications in question; the SFO will continue the case against individuals who may be involved, for example ex Petrofac employees who were involved but didn't come forward, however, the case against Petrofac is closed. The SFO will always say they continue the investigation, but it is in relation to individuals not companies.

Check out the other SFO investigations into Rolls Royce and others. The SFO will always leave the door open to go after employees. This would have been stated in the settlement agreed with Petrofac. A company will not legally agree a settlement for a large amount of money, if it can be investigated again for the same offences.

I wonder how much Snapper is underwater now. He sounded pretty desperate before. DYOR

£77 million fine is a great outcome for the company. I can only see this going one way now.

esecallum do you know a guy called snapper?

Leaving an open short on Petrofac over the weekend is taking quite a big gamble imo. The fundamentals are changing for this company, however, there is also going to be a short squeeze, as the bigger long term shorters have made their money and want out. PTC has the potential for a very steep rise in a small time frame. Be careful all derampers. DYOR.

Whatever the fine is, it won't have to be paid immediately. That is not how these things work. The fine is to deter the behaviour from happening again in the future, it is not to bankrupt companies. It will be paid off over several years.

Throughout the investigation, SFO continued to win contracts. The closing of the SFO case enables the companies to bid for larger contracts. It will be a fine of between £100-£200 million. Once the market absorbs the information the SP will spike. With oil and gas prices at high levels, the services of Petrofac will be in high demand.

This is about to hit 170, I wonder if Snapper closed his short in time.

Largest fine ever imposed by the SFO since 2011 (new rules) was around £900 million on airbus. Petrofac, a company that is currently .5% of the size of airbus, imo the likely fine, worst case maybes £50- £100 million, makes this company significantly undervalued. Even if SFO throws the book at Petrofac with a higher fine, the potential for growth with this company is very strong. I see another massive spike on monday, which will almost certainly be good news for PTC.