Member Info for marcus-aurelius

Classic case of market intervention intended to help the consumer, ends up damaging the market and negatively impacting the consumer. How many more energy companies need to go bust before they remove the pricing cap?

By the end of this, there will be less energy companies willing to supply to the UK consumer. Less competition and less options for the retail market.

Snapper clearly either has a short, or is mentally unstable from his time spent "working" at PTC. My view is, this rather unsavoury character has a short and is underwater. Why else would someone dedicate so much of their time on this?

Snapper claims he is on a quest to fight against bribery and corruption; why only Petrofac? Most companies at some point have had charges laid against them, recently Rolls Royce, Shell, Bab****, O2 to name a few. Rolls Royce were fined, and yet they are still making engines right?

I am all for balanced objective views, and anyone who invests in PTC should be aware it is high risk, however Snapper's opinion is very biased and one sided.

Snapper that is an 8 month old article. It might have been helpful 8 months ago. Is your short position 110?

Snapper watching his short position slowly erode day after day.

Snapper must have really hated his time working for Petrofac. The amount of time and effort he puts into his posts is incredible!

Excellent advice from Neversellshell.

No one can predict the future, everyone has different circumstances, expectations and needs. All shares have the capacity to go to zero, however unlikely, it can happen. What is your capacity to absorb risk? Do you have your risk spread in a diversified way? Is Shell part of income in retirement? All these questions can only be answered by yourself, and advised on by a qualified expert privy to your requirements. Strangers on internet bb/forums is not the way to go.

I've had some pretty big loses in the past. One thing I have learned, the decisions have to be made by you. Do your own research and don't be a sheep in the crowd. Listen to the advice others give, but make your own decision. Then own that decision and accept future outcomes.

"I left because they would not listen to MY Strategy as I told them theres was all wrong"
Snapper, either your holding a short position, or your still butt hurt from your time working at PFC.

Like I have already said, the information you keep repeating is known to the market. The share price reflects this information.

Snapper, that could all be true, however the important thing is; does the share price reflect fair value? Nothing you have stated is not known to the market, and, like you have previously said the share price has fallen significantly in recent years. So, on that basis, what is your breakeven price for your short option?

Snapper, it's not what happened that matters, its what can be proved in court. How's your short position?

If you think about it, dividend takes money out of the company, so share price should go down because there is less capital available. So there is an equal tradeoff (in theory). Investor does not see any real benefit from dividend because it infers a lower SP.

Shell cut their dividend, they are no longer seen as the safe reliable income stock it once was. If Shell immediately re instated their full dividend, it is unlikely the rise in stock value would equal the fall that occurred, as investors now know Shell is willing to cut the dividend. The share buy back is another mechanism to prop up the share price.

They could have reduced debt, however, they probably see the SP as undervalued, and this is a good opportunity to engage in share buy back. Plus, they have reduced their debts significantly over the last 18 months and have very good credit scores/loan rates. Now is probably optimal for them to buy their own stock. For example if their interest debt is 5%, and the stock value rises by 10% end of year, then they make more money- which can either reduce debt more or returned to investor.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Cheap-Natural-Gas-Is-A-Thing-Of-The-Past.html

Char August 2020
"many footie 100 companies will consider rights issue to prop up groaning balance sheets. Banks & retail more likely ATM I would think. But if cv19 fallout continues well into 2021 then many others will not hesitate to go down the rights issue route. Shell & BP included."

"many footsie companies will consider rights issues, especially banks & retail stocks. But BP & shell too could go down that route"

Char you add nothing to these boards. Shell considering a rights issue was sheer lunacy, we all told you this, but just like now, you refuse to listen to anyone else. If this share is so dead beat (just like vodaphone) then move on no?

Very strong results from Shell. Net debt reduced by $12 billion since march 2020, strong cash flows almost as high as pre pandemic, dividend increase, guaranteed $2 billion share buy back, aviation about to massively pick up- this share is only going in one direction.

I made a comment almost a year ago about ch**r333 rambling. I actually tried to help him by saying sell this stock because it was affecting his mental health. This was reported by someone and removed.

I have filtered him now.

Most of the uncertainties are already baked into the Shell price, which is why it has not risen to pre pandemic levels. Does anyone actually believe the assets will become worthless in 10 years, or even 50 years? Shell has already began divesting it's less profitable refineries, so, the assets that will be left are larger, more efficient and ultimately more profitable. The demand for oil and gas is likely to remain for our lifetimes, and quite possibly several others after us, the demand for these assets will always remain.

The transition to renewables will be costly, and the reduced dividend still continues to hit the share price, however Shell at current prices represents an opportunity that probably wont last much longer. Once the planes start flying again maybes 6 months- one year?, that will be when the share price will begin to rise back to pre covid levels.

Exactly what does "fully audited by Ernst and Young" mean?- feat Carillion, Thomas Cook, NMC.

There may be value here with Petrofac, but the question really is how far the rot goes. £30 million is a large amount, surely members of the board must have been aware of the payments?

Even if oil comes back to $50 or even $60 dollars a barrel, banks are going to be very hesitant to give out more loans to shale companies because of the inherent risk that has been demonstrated during the pandemic. The big banks are also under pressure to follow ESG protocols from not only their own shareholders but government initiative. Pure oil and gas companies will not get the finance they were able to obtain a couple of years ago (this trend will only continue).

These bb's should always be taken with a pinch of salt, and no one should make decisions based on what they read here. They are a bit of fun to share news and ideas. I personally see Shell doing very well after the pandemic. The sentiment is firmly against oil related companies at present, but this won't hold forever. The transition to renewables is going to require expertise and infrastructure on a massive scale. Big oil like Shell, who already have a large number of engineers and scientists are ideally placed to make this happen, and fast. The world needs Shell and BP and other oil companies more than is probably fully realised.

Tullow just wrote down $1.4 billion in assets, the debt is now well over $3 billion, and the entire market cap is only $300 million. A massive percentage of Tullow's assets are currently intangible. The company in the present climate is worthless. Any jump in share price is merely a dead cat bounce. In January 2021 when the debt covenants are breached that will by the nail in the coffin. I wouldn't be surprised if the Uganda sale doesn't go through and it goes tits up even sooner.
Char666 don't listen to him, your far better sticking with shell.

scaredycat
Yes I predict a massive oil price rise in 2021, leading into 2022, but I don't see Tullow surviving to then or being in a position of strength to benefit from it. Oil prices are going to hover around current prices or lower for some time still to come. Unfortunately, time is not on Tullow's side with the debt pile converging towards being 10 times it's market cap.
Just to survive Tullow have had to weaken their capex, and make some brutal cuts to investment- which for me raises some significant uncertainties for the strength of the company on a long term basis. The debt mountain is what will ultimately end this Tullow.

Think of it this way, how long can Tullow survive these low oil prices and still be in a position to pay off that massive debt pile? The company needs $50 a barrel asap to have any hope of survival.

The share price is going to go into the teens in the next month, then it will be on life support till the money runs out.