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i can understand why bearishness is increasing and even bulls have gone stale given the share price stagnation. much of the investor annoyance could have been avoided with better comms imho. and yes, there have been over-optimistic projections in the past. still, i do think seeing machines as a business is in a stronger position than it has ever been in.
most importantly for me, and the reason i've not sold out, is that:
1) auto delays are not see's fault. our tech is the best but oems have altered requirements {even the euroncap requirements have been in doubt at times} and there is now some hold up between magna + oems, i believe. that may also be the case re. bdms as autonomous driving has crashed, with companies closing down projects.
2) gen 3 is set to open up new markets - although not as quickly as we were originally told. still it is happening.
3) aviation is moving forward at pace - again not as fast as we would have liked.
certainly, i think the messaging has been poor at times (even non-existant just before a fundraise), leading to us having unrealistic expectations. that's the company's fault not ours. iis will have taken a harder line, which is probably why the share price languishes.
the clock is most definitely ticking to improve things. if we're ****ed i'm sure many iis are too. moreover, i think pm and the team has delivered on the core areas as much as was in their power to do so; auto, gen 3 and aviation.
let's not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. that said, let's hold their feet to the fire.
clearly, there is some deep problem at seye. lots of high level departures recently. a future fundraise and a lack of near-term revenue is most likely the cause imho. martin is standing there stark ******* naked, with the tide going out. if see could only communicate effectively some of those seye shareholders would be moving to our part of the beach. the future is bright for see, regardless. dyor of course. it's dms/oms tech is the best (colin ought to know) and we await magna's deals with oems.
Given the escalating war in the Middle East, this looks like a compelling play. Oil could go to $150 given the stupidity of the US in not stopping Israel's genocide. Instead they attack the Houthis.
ISB,
I don't understand the bitterness and the blatant misrepresentation of some of the facts. The delays in auto contracts were down to OEMs. In case you haven't notice SEE recently won 2 decent auto contracts.
Re. the Magna mirror SEE is going into Honda and VW with it. On what basis do you think Gentex has won Toyota?
I don't believe SEYE has won Ford from SEE. Whatever scraps SEYE picks up will be in budget models. BMW and Audi moved to SEE.
Your view on what constitutes a launch is laughable. Moreover, the partnership with Mobileye in Fleet should enable a fast ramp up in volumes from April onwards.
The Airline developments have taken longer than forecast but it's clear they will all be realised.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the Naked Trader puts his Paddy Power pants on and takes a bet on SEE very soon. Still, I make my own investment decisions and I'm here because I want a ten-bagger this year.
Some oems may get away with inferior products in the beginning but top quality Fleet operators really will be prepared to pay for the best DMS and monitoring if they grasp the business benefits. That's my belief. We'll see, I guess.
The contract news today is very positive for a product that was only launched yesterday. It's a good start, 3,000 a year are only initial amounts and over 6-7 years would be roughly 20k. Moreover, it is likely to ramp up considerably as the benefits in terms of safety and reduced insurance premiums are felt.
Quite apart from the legislation, the business case for this makes sense. Those fleets that choose inferior products (Smart Eye and Cipia) will be at a commercial disadvantage.
Nik Nak,
1) They didn't announce any POs or even detail the size of the market opp in the Gen 3 RNS. It was a poor RNS. And yes, the launch was later than I had originally expected. However, these things aren't like producing garments.
2) The auto delays aren't PM's fault. Moreover, it is well documented that SEE underplay their contract sizes and SEYE inflate theirs.
3) Ford hasn't moved over to SEYE from SEE. There may be dual sourcing though.
4) I'm confident SEE will announce big Gen 3 contracts in due course.
5) Re. PM's 7.5 'freebies'. In all honesty, I don't know the truth of it. I read the RNS and asked SEE but got no reply.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/seeing-machines-ltd-npv-di---see/director-pdmr-shareholding/7742556
NikNak,
Misquoting me then lacing that lie with sarcasm is unfair. Still, take your best shot.
Btw, you actually doubted Gen 3 would be launched, may I quote you re. your CES prediction: "It will be the same old crap collaborations that equate to nothing."
I can't deny that the RNS fails to do justice to this pivotal development; the launch of the Gen 3 Guardian. Yet, even the launch was something that some knockers had publicly doubted. Would you like salt with your humble pie Baxter et al?
I certainly hoped we'd hear more about the substantial purchase orders that PM told us about months ago, without that the share price is unlikely to respond as I wanted. Still, perhaps our partners will demonstrate how to effectively PR SEE's cutting-edge tech over the next few days.
Re. Cipia,
I'd have thought Cipia would be negatively affected by the war in Israel/Palestine. Some OEMs/companies might think twice about using tech from a country that is embroiled in a war, which may soon face international sanctions for genocide. That said, the same caveats might be said to apply to Mobileye - although it still is mostly owned by Intel. There is also the impact of the war on the Israeli economy to be considered...from what I read staff retention and recruitment could also be an issue for Israel if the war continues to escalate.
niknak,
firstly, i said it could double. that depends on them putting substantial contracts alongside the launch of gen 3.
secondly, i doubt you hold any see. why would you come on here to **** off the company you own just when its cutting-edge tech is being demoed at ces?
for those that do hold, you may want to watch this today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tozavllqzmo
Baxter,
If SEE announce details of Gen 3 alongside substantial Purchase Orders (as already indicated) I think the share price could easily double next week. That's apart from any news re. auto, which is also coming.
Is that why you're turning more positive Baxter, my old China?
This is a perennial dog. If you seriously want an undervalued share that is going to rocket this year, take a look at Seeing Machines (SEE). Next week is the CES show in the US - there will be lots of news. Before you buy DYOR, of course.
Aaron,
That's very fair. I think the management has done a superb job in developing this business. Naturally, frustration at the share price has embittered investors at times. Yet, finally, 2024 has to be the year that the market starts to recognises the value of this stock. Wishing all investors and the hardworking staff at Seeing Machines a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
Latest blog from Safesstocks doesn't pull its punches, quoting Peel Hunt note. TKO v. Smart Eye.
https://www.safestocks.co.uk/2023/12/22/peel-hunt-note-questions-smart-eye-and-seeing-machines-comparison/
Dream Machine,
As a newbie you may not be familiar with how many SEYE wins have subsequently been scaled back or lost; BMW, Jaguar, Audi etc. There is also talk of them losing Volvo.
It's also commonly known that SEE is very conservative re. the value of its wins, indicating minimum values, not 'going large' as SEYE does. For instance, in a note dated 10th May 2022 Cenkos analyst Mark Bunce wrote: "The ‘cumulative initial lifetime value’ of these award wins now up to A$345m/US$240m which we believe is predominantly based on conservative
minimum production commitments for initial vehicle models. However, with actual production volumes usually much greater than minimum commitments, and the technology already being seen on models beyond the initial award win, we believe the likely lifetime value of these awards is already considerably larger."
As Seeing2020 coined the phrase 'McDelivery', I may be infringing on his copyright by stating PM has delivered on his promise that we'd win sizeable auto contracts this quarter. Still, it is true. Moreover, I'm confident we'll have a lot more good news coming out of CES - not least the launch of Gen 3 Guardian. Those buying at these levels should have a lot to celebrate in 2024. Where is Baxter today? (In the soup?)