Member Info for Manyana

Obviously it would be preferable to avoid the JR but as a last stop it is obviously the clearest way to put Eamon Ryan back in his box = and then preferably bury it.

Ryan, we know invoked a "law" that does not exist and this is exactly what a JR is used for.

"Judicial review is a type of court proceeding in which a judge reviews the lawfulness of a decision or action made by a public body. In other words, judicial reviews are a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made, rather than the rights and wrongs of the conclusion reached."

This surely fills the bill exactly for Ryan demanding 3X liquid assets before you can start drilling. It is a recommendation not a directive therefore has no place in law.

A short, sharp kick in the teeth for Ryan would be far more preferable and perhaps the threat of a JR will bring him to his senses.

Also, Ryan days in Government are numbered, so at worst, we can wait for the next election as long as somebody bails the company out in the meantime. Every time something like this happens we all think "What an a/h O'Reilly was". when he wasted all that money - like father like son.

It depends on how they want to fund it. Will it be a loan or will it be equity?

Either way, it is our last throw of the dice so we must be grateful for small mercies.

On July 7th 2021, Vevan announced:

"Vevan Unlimited Company, now holds 45,435,708 ordinary shares of €0.001 each in the

capital of the Company representing 4.66% of the issued ordinary share capital."

Given that the shares were approximately 10p, that was an investment then of about £4.5m.

Since Vevan now owns about 16% of the company we can assume that it has cost a minimum of about £12m.

Now, how is a judicial review, at least, or even better a court case, even if it runs to £1m, not going to happen since the alternative is for the company to go into liqidation and Vevan lose £12m.

“You’re then taking a bet on who’ll be in Government next,”

One thing certain, Eamon Ryan will not be in the next government.

To form a majority you need 80 seats. Currently the Government (80 seats) is made up of Fianna Fáil (36) Fine Gael (33)

and the Green Party (11).

Sinn Fein will be the biggest party next time and could possibly get fifty or sixty seats. They will form a coalition with either Fine Fail or Fine Gael to form a majority and the Greens will be for the high jump. Ryan has antagonised so many people that they will probably be decimated.

So, all Barryroe needs is funding to take it past the next election which could be in November 2024 but must be before end of March 2025.

You can be sure one of the big hitter shareholders or a number of them are going to step into the breach. It just depends on what sort of a deal they can come out with.

The following defines the rules for oil and gas discoveries in Ireland.

https://assets.gov.ie/24944/eaee2e58d17a4c2c98f68bf56d123439.pdf

Check Section 51 for arbitration and the resolution. I wonder if Barryroe is following this path?

You will note that it says any disagreement between the Minister and the oil company will be settled by arbitration and there are specific timescales to determine this. Check it out at section 51 in the rules.

Ryan issued his edict on 21st May so first part is 30 days followed by 10 days followed by 21 to agree an arbitrator.

Has Barryroe done anything about this?

Taxation on oil and gas in Ireland ranges from 5% to 40% depending on volume produced in any one year. Check it out at:

https://www.revenue.ie/en/tax-professionals/tdm/income-tax-capital-gains-tax-corporation-tax/part-24/24-04-01.pdf

If Barryroe's solicitors, we presume Goodbodys, cannot use these pieces of legislation to cut the proverbials off Ryan they are not worth the heat of our ......

If the CVL is invoked and a liquidator is appointed it will be their job to "find" as much money as the company owns or is owned.

Given that Barryroe are now entitled to about $280m in tax rebates , having invested that amount in Barryroe and the other wild geese chases by O'Reilly, from the government it will be up to the liquidator to get that money.

It might enter a CVT but it will take years to be concluded and in the meantime, the liquidator will surely put the proverbial to the government's head and it will be faced with another bout of "money message".

I suspect the government will consider this matter seriously and you may find they back off sooner than later.

No problem, thenShen. I know the different time zones mix everything up. I have a son in Sydney and I have to be careful not to ring him up in the middle of the night by getting the time zones wrong.

Yes, I was aware of the reference you stated when Brid Smith got her "proverbials" in a twist.

I think Ryan took cognisance of that when he stumped Barryroe because he can claim his recommendation is not "a law" and hence is not subject to the "money message".

The question is, if it is only a recommendation it can only be rescinded by a judicial review or a court case.

Hopefully, Larry or his pals will support Barryroe as I am sure they would like to fight this in court but with so little reserves they need financial assistance.

We live in hope.

ThenShen,

I did not see the reference of Varadkar and "money message" regarding Barryroe.

What did he say and is there a reference to it?

I believe Ryan will do the Pontius Pilate trick.

Barryroe will take a case. The government and Ryan will do what they did to Smith and invoke the "money message" which says we cannot do something which is going to cost the government big bucks and they will withdraw the decision to rescind the approval.

At that point Ryan will wave his hands in the air (or wash them) saying "I did my best but I was forced to give the approval" because of the potential cost to the government.

Can anybody really see Goodman and the other major shareholders giving up after all the money they have invested in Barryroe.

Synopsis of the "money message" in the Irish constitution:

"The rationale behind Article 17.2 (called the "money message") is simple enough: while the Government does not, strictly speaking, control the legislative process, it does have overall responsibility for managing the State’s finances. Article 17.2 attempts to ensure prudence in the State’s finances by keeping spending on a coherent agenda and making sure that conflicting legislation and spending does not come about."

I believe Ryan scuppered the approval because he is convinced that there is actually 340m barrels of oil and a load of gas in Barryroe.

If you followed the history of Barryroe from 2012 you will note that deals fell apart because of doubts and questions about the potential thin layer of oil and whether the field extended across the whole area or whether it was actually a number of discrete fields all of which would have to be developed separately.

If Ryan thought Barryroe was a non-runner why did he not approve the permission and let Barryroe fall flat on its face?

My reasoning is because new technology says it is what it says it is and there is 340m barrels of oil and probably even more lower down plus plenty of gas.

Also, by denying the permission Ryan is probably playing for time. How long will it take to get a case into court? One year or more? If so, Ryan will be for the birds before than as he will be out to grass by late 2024 or at the latest March 2025 when a new election will be held.

Actually I am old enough to have met Larry Goodman on a few occasions

Larry Goodman exploited every avenue, political and non-political, to better him and his businesses.

Note:

"Larry Goodman, said at the beef tribunal he saw every meeting with a powerful politician as an opportunity to extract advantage. He explained to the tribunal he had "fairly liberal access" to ministers at this time, and that this gave him a competitive edge in dealing with rival companies. "I did have access," he said, "and I did use it to the best of advantage for my company any time I could . . . If I felt it gave our company an advantage, I wasn't worried about the competition in Ireland."

Yes, he got into a few "scrapes" but he always came out on the right side to benefit him.

Hopefully, he will do the same with Ryan. Larry has friends in high places.

The major shareholders in BEY with in excess of 3% of the shares are:

Vevan 19.83%

Kite Lake 10.18%

Paegant 9.35%

Mersey Side 7.92%

Roaring Water 4.4%

Nick Furlong 3.31%

That is over 50% of the equity in BAE and they bought them at prices far in excess of today's price paying millions.

Are they willing to lose all that investment or will they fund BAE and take on Ryan?

The cost of funding and Ryan will be small potatoes compared to losing their investments so I reckon they will fund the company and fight Ryan.

And, by the way, I may be wrong, but does not BAE still own Hook Head which is estimated to hold 70mbbls of oil. Surely that is an asset that has not been exploited.

Larry Goodman never, in his history, has backed off a fight and he has never lost.

My opinion is "watch this space".

Not correct that BEY have not produced a "drop of oil" or gas in over 40 years.

Many moons ago Barryroe had a number of producing gas fields in Mexico and secondly, for quite a few years they had producing oil wells in the South of England. Both went their ways when "baby" O'Reilly sold them off.

Furthermore, the tax credits due to Barryroe via Providence is about $200m which is the amount spend by "baby" over the years and is reclaimable against revenues from Barryroe under irish energy rules. This could be a game changer if somebody came in to buy the company.

The potential sale of Whitegate could also be a benefit if it was sold and would be even more of a benefit if the Irvings shut it down. Where would Ireland get its "refined" oil and gas then to take up the slack? That would be another "hole" in Ryan's strategy. After all, it was envisaged that the 70,000 barrels a day refined there would come from Barryroe as it is far cheaper to pipe it ashore rather than using oil carriers.

This whole mess looks more like an Irish Gordian Knot every day.

The Greens do not have a chance in the next election.

Sinn Fein made a mistake in 2020 in running, on average, one candidate in each constituency. If they had run at least two in each they would now be in power. For example, Look at the Wexford election in 2020.

John Mythen Sinn Fein won the first count with 18,717 votes nearly 25% of the vote. The next was Brendan Howlin with 9,223. When you consider that Verona Murphy had 7.76% first preferences and got elected with 5,825 first preference you see the major mistake Sinn Fein made in 2020 by not running at least a second candidate.

Because Sinn Fein only ran one candidate Mythen's excess went to all the other parties where they would normally go to a second Sinn Fein candidate but they did not run one. Given his excess votes a second or even a third Sinn Fein candidate could have been elected in Wexford.

Now extrapolate that across the country and if Sinn Fein had run at least two candidates in each constituency they would have won about 50 seats and would now be in power.

Do you think they will make the same mistake in 2025? Not on your nelly and even now Sinn Fein are more popular than they were in 2020 because of the mess this lot, and especially Ryan, are making of Ireland's present and future.

Surely the issue is whether Barryroe have been paying the fees attached to the license agreement. There is a sq.km charge for Barryroe which they have been paying for years.

So, if the license is intact and is being paid for, how can Ryan refuse it? He is the one who mentions "license agreement" when he said "was able to meet its conditions as set out in the license agreement". It is clear that Barryroe has been doing this now for about eleven years.

Looks like Ryan does not know the law and is due a rude awakening.

By precedent.

If Lansdowne won its case against the government through the Arbitration then Barryroe would take a case against the government using the Lansdowne decision as precedent.

Do you think the government would then prevent Barryroe from doing the development when Barryroe are entitled to €270m under the terms of the Irish oil and gas laws.

Ryan just hopes it is dragged out long enough for him to be booted out with the next election at which he is a definite to get the proverbials blown off him as he loses his seat. In the meantime he just likes being a troublemaker as he warms himself at his coal fires and wood burners in his Dundrum home.

As his wife said about their house:

"It's far more comfortable following the renovation. "There's so little need for a heating system," she says. The house's main heat source is a gasifying log boiler. But Victoria says the smaller wood stove in the kitchen is enough to provide much of the house's heat.

"The stove heats the house, it's absolutely incredible. The insulation is incredible in the house, it's just so warm."

But despite their energy inefficiency, Victoria was insistent on keeping the house's open fireplaces. "They're an intrinsic period feature and I wouldn't get rid of them on aesthetic grounds."

So wood burners and open fireplaces for Ryan but not for the rest of Ireland who shiver without coal, turf, oil and gas.

The article reiterates what I printed from the actual document. Nothing in the document is carved in stone. It is all discretionary at the Minister's and his department's whim.

As the article states and which is written in stone in the document:

"It wasn’t set in stone. The entire document highlights repeatedly that reliance on the various guidelines is at the “absolute discretion” of the department, now named the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications."

Ryan is a fool if he takes on Larry Goodman. How many court cases has Goodman been involved in and won? As far as I know, numerous and even going back to 1991 and the Beef Tribunal, which a former government took against him, he has never lost.

Ryan beware. A previous government was brought down by taking on Larry Goodman and losing.

In my opinion, any legal team can drive a coach and horses through this decision by Ryan based on the following from the guidelines:

Item 1.3:

It is important to note that this Guidance:

a) Is for guidance purposes only and the Department may, at its absolute discretion,

elect to depart from the approach set out in this Guidance;

b) Is supplementary to the Act and the Licensing Terms, both of which take

precedence over this Guidance;

c) Is not a substitute for any regulation or law and does not have binding legal effect;

d) Is not a substitute for any other financial assessments that may be carried out by

another regulator; and

e) Is made specifically and exclusively for the purposes set out within.

f) Will be kept under review by the Department and may be amended as deemed

appropriate by the Department.

What a load of fudge. So get your skates on "solicitors in A&L Goodbody" and blow Ryan out of the water.

If anybody thought for a moment this would not be legally challenged they were for the birds.

It is clear Lansdowne, as a UK company, has been charted with running this one through the legal process. But, unfortunately, going to Arbitration can take a long time.

Ryan, with his green stick stuck so tightly up his rear end, has done everything to thwart the Barryroe development and the reason he has done so is because the oil and gas "actually" exists. If he thought it was a wild goose chase he would have let Larry Goodman and the other major investors lose their money on a dry hole.

But remember, Ryan was surely aware that this would end up in court either local or at arbitration which is going to take possibly months if not years and since he has only two years left in power he will be long gone before a decision is made as a new election "will be held by March 2025".

Given the rise in support for Sinn Fein as shown in last week's local elections and their increased popularity in the South the chances of the Greens and Ryan being re-elected are slim to nil. Sinn Fein will win a vast majority of seats in the next election and probably form a single party government or will probably be in a coalition with Fine Gael or at worst Fine Fail.

And you can be sure Sinn Fein will be looking for every cent it can get to bolster it main ambition which is a united Ireland and the cost of supporting Northern Ireland will not be cheap as NI currently gets £15billion support per annum fro the UK and Barryroe would go some way to easing the pain of such expense and all the other expenses of tying the two parts together.

So goodbye Ryan and his decision unless of course Larry et al wade in before to speed up the process in the Irish courts which Larry, at his age, would prefer I am sure.

Interesting times.

Where in the Longboat RNS does it mention Barryroe?

It deals with the JV between Longboat Norway and Japan but I do not see any reference to Barryroe in that.

Rumoured that Ryan was going soft on LNG threatens rift in Green Party. (Here's hoping)

https://www.businesspost.ie/politics/green-party-tds-warn-eamon-ryan-any-u-turn-on-lng-will-be-a-slap-in-the-face/

Perhaps his alternative will be to sanction the Barryroe appraisal.

We would all like to give Ryan a good slap in the face.