Timing is Everything3 Nov 2022 10:52
I think BEY is being kind to Ryan and the government and timing is everything.
The least Barryroe could do would be to sue the government for all the fees paid to date for Barryroe which amounts to millions of euros. They could also sue the government for the costs spent to date, amounting to about $200m on Providences searches, which under the Oil and Gas law in Ireland, can be claimed out of profits but if you are prevented from working then how can you create profits?
Look at Corrib. I don't think they have to date paid any taxes as they are still recouping costs. I think they are reclaiming about €3billion over the life of the field which is estimated to be the cost of how much it took to develop the field.
There are a few other issues in Barryroe's favour and hopefully will come to pass.
First of all, I believe there are lashings of oil and gas in Barryroe otherwise Ryan would not try to stop it. Why put blockers on Barryroe if the 2023 license is a dead duck? Why not just let Barryroe get on with it and do what O'Reilly did in the past, spend big and waste hundreds of euros and dollars on wild goose chases if it is just another wild goose chase and Barryroe is non-commercial.
Next, 15th December (or slightly later) Ireland will have a new government when Martin and Fine Fail hand over to Varadkar and Fine Gael but, in fact that is no certainty that either will be in charge as the government has to be voted in by the Dail and the Fine Fail/Fine Gael/Greens combination has only a wafer thin majority. It is possible that the Greens will be ditched and with it Ryan as Minister for "Minister for the Environment, etc," as the new government has to be voted in; a vote it could easily lose as Fine Fail and Fine Gael just won the last vote of confidence when 4 Independents voted with them so no guarantees this time.
The Barryroe plan "is to appraise in 2023 and produce by 2026" so it has all of next year to appraise so they are in no rush to get approval and even if they have to wait until 2025 or later there will be an election in 2025 and it is a near certainty that Sinn Fein will be part of the government and Ryan, even if he is still there then, will be for the birds as the Greens will certainly be for the high jump by then.
So it is a waiting game. Barryroe will be developed. It is just a case of when. It was always anticipated no gas or oil would flow before 2026 and there is a lot of water to flow under the bridge between now and then by which time Ryan will be for the birds and sanity will return to Irish politics.
As John Milton said "We also serve who only stand and wait". We are waiting even if we have to wait for 2025 for a new government and, hopefully, flowing oil and gas by 2026. We have waited ten years already so what is another few?
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