Member Info for Manyana

Given that the longer the government hang it out the greater the amount they will have to pay for as Rockhopper claims it is all about lost revenue. So Barryroe at 70,000 barrels a day lost revenue of say $70 a barrel equates to about $5m a day lost revenue.

How long do you think the government can hang that out? That is why I say they will compromise and do a deal which will allow the development of Barryroe. After all, as a current license there is no legal reason why Barryroe cannot be developed.

It all depends on how much the tribunal agrees the Italian government have to pay Rockhopper.

Salad man could find his toes have been burnt very soon and the Irish government could be shelling out big bucks to Providence.

https://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/2022/04/ombrina-mare-arbitration-update-3/

Rockhopper arbitration was closed on 25th April 2022 and it was agreed that the Italian government will have to pay Rockhopper for lost revenue from the Ombrina Mare oil well debacle. The tribunal then has 120 days to announce the settlement amount in favour of Rockhopper which can be extended by 60 days.

Rockhopper spent about $40m on the Ombrina Mare well and are hoping to get $400m compensation.

Since this EU precedent will equally apply to Providence and Barryroe we could be in clover by the end of the year.

If Rockhopper are expecting a 10x cost to revenue how much do you think Providence can claim from the Irish government having spent about $200m to date? On a pro rata basis they could be due up to about $2billion.

So I am sure the management of Providence don't give a cat's cu**e about the license at present as I am sure they are waiting for the outcome of the arbitration 's decision on how much Italy has to pay Rockhopper.

Rather than go to arbitration now that precedent has been established I expect the Irish government will try and strike a deal with Providence.

What happens when the EU phases out Russian oil and gas? Ireland gets 6% of its gas from Russia so that has to go and it is beholden to the UK for nearly half of its gas.
and..
"Ireland is one of the most fossil fuel dependant countries in Europe and is particularly exposed to geopolitical events which determine how much we pay to heat our homes and generate our electricity."

So, when the UK stops sending us gas because they need it themselves what are we going to do?

Von der Laden also said it will be up to "members" to make up the shortfall. " In 2021, the EU imported $108 billion (€99bn) worth of energy from Russia".

If the embargo is enacted Von der Laden says it is up to the members to make up the shortfall. Ireland is one of the "members" so it has to make a contribution. Where is that going to come from?

Even Ryan will not be able to stand in the way of that and Providence can appeal to Brussels if he does. And legally Ryan has to approve the Providence license irrespective of how long he tries to hold out. After all, Providence planned to drill the appraisal well in 2023 any way so they are technically in no rush for Ryan to fall on his sword.

Interesting times ahead.

As for "Clon" by which I presume you mean Clontarf Oil and Gas, Teelings "rip off", I see they have just diluted from 800m to 2.2billion shares. And you think that is a good alternative to Providence? I wouldn't trust Teeling or his sons any more than I would drink their whiskey.

Amazon just got the green light to build a 49mw centre outside Drogheda.

You can add that electricity usage to the following:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/data-centres-now-consuming-more-electricity-than-rural-homes-cso-1.4868221

Will take a lot of sunlight and wind to keep these running. Perhaps Ryan can suggest how it will be done.

March facts prove how badly Ireland needs Barryroe but gobs***** Ryan still sits on the fence.

I think an email to him asking how he heats his own house would be of interest as he has a handicapped child so I presume they do not leave the poor child in the cold.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/gas-demand-increases-in-march-as-renewable-electricity-generation-falls-1.4865334

I see Barryroe got a mention in a letter to the Irish Times today where Ryan got a kick in the proverbials as follows:

"When we most need energy to survive, we need to utilise the transition fuel assets Ireland has available to supply Ireland’s people and her economy.

There is additional offshore gas at Corrib and there is gas at Barryroe which could utilise the nearby Kinsale gas field infrastructure to bring the much-needed gas to Irish consumers.

The fact is that Eamon Ryan is refusing to sign licence and lease extensions for willing energy providers for both Corrib and Barryroe.

Our Government may consider flying away from the fools’ paradise in which they are living. – Yours, etc,"

Rightly said, this Government is a party of fools led by the nose by a lunatic.

Fine Gael country TDs not too happy with Ryan.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/eamon-ryan-accused-of-threatening-stability-of-government-at-heated-meeting-with-fine-gael-tds-41590541.html

Can the three monkeys continue to hold the country together as they "Are all a Danger". "Speak Total Rubbish" and "Scratch Each Other's Backs".

How many site surveys did Providence carry out in 2021?

Perhaps you know better but I believe it was only one as follows:

""Providence is pleased to confirm that the Marine Institute’s Celtic Voyager survey vessel mobilized on 24 October to the Barryroe field where it will undertake a seabed, shallow geophysical and environmental baseline survey over the K area of the Barryroe field. The site survey is expected to take up to 7 days depending on operating conditions," Providence said Tuesday."

Note, it specifically states "Over the K area of the Barryroe field". That is only a very small portion of the field.

Furthermore, the February review stated that " An economically and technically attractive case for an initial Barryroe oil and gas development has been identified and independently confirmed."

I thought you said there was not talk of "gas". That is not what the above states.

I think you need to read the Barryroe Strategic Review of February this year and admit your mistakes and then you can stop making up your own fairy stories.

Ryan trying to fudge his proposal to ban the sale of turf.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ryan-s-proposals-on-turf-sale-ban-exemption-in-some-rural-areas-won-t-wash-1.4861769

Now proposes villages with less than 500 people will be exempt. Is he going to go round and count them?

Fine Fail and Fine Gael rural politicians are now getting close to ditching the government.

The populations of Norway and Ireland are pretty equivalent at 5 million each.

Irish debt is €250billion v. Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund is €1.3trillion and getting larger as Russian oil and gas are bypassed.

Where did Norway get all that money? From oil and gas, actually. It drills it, sells it but uses very little of it for itself.

Now, how stupid are Ryan et al. in the Irish Government when they preach "holier than thou" to others who are laughing all the way to the bank. And, of course, Norway is not a member of the EU so it is not forced to obey those crazy "crooked banana" or "ride on mowers licenses" rules that the EU so loves.

When Sinn Fein gets its "United Ireland " will they join the EU or will we all join the EU and do a United Ireland Irexit?

"Today Sinn Fein launched its 2022 Election Manifesto and in it it says "In the South, Sinn Féin leads the opposition and we are ready to lead government." The sooner, the better says I.

So today's news anticipates Sinn Fein to be largest party in NI in the next two weeks and then onward to a United Ireland minus that gob*****e Eamon Ryan. "O Happy Days", as they say.

Sinn Fein manifesto:

https://vote.sinnfein.ie/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/A4_MANIFESTOenglish.pdf

Isn't amazing how "The Pimple", aka Grubber runs for cover when faced with an uncomfortable truth.

Having pointed out two major investors in Providence who, between them, are worth €3billion when he tried to convince us that the major investors in Providence were "short of a few bob" and were here by mistake - poor deluded fool - him not they.

So let us just take one more investor from the list of major investors and he can explain why they are here and what their investment philosophy is and we can then wait for his explanation.

Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP who currently hold 9.75% of Providence equity which equates to about 950m shares state as follows:

Strategy: "Kite Lake Capital’s offshore fund invests in a range of event-driven equity & credit strategies,
with a specific focus on situations where there is a near-term hard catalyst".

Perhaps he would like to explain to us what a "near-term hard catalyst" is. Perhaps he thinks it is investing in his crazy cryptocurrencies so that you can lose your shirt.

Any bets he will refuse to answer because it would just prove what an abject f*ool he really is.

The pimple criticised my idea that Providence could always raise capital from major investors through equity release.

He said the investors in Providence had been "sucked dry" and did not have the resources to do it.

Well then why have these two "penniless" investors bought into Providence and still hold on if it is a dead duck?

Larry, Kitty, Laurence and Mark Goodman: are worth €2.46 billion and Martin Naughton and family: are worth €1.4 billion . So these two alone are worth nearly €3billion euro between then but according to him they are "penniless".

With that amount of money why have they both invested in a penny share? Because they see profit. That is always their be-all and end-all. So wise up chump! They are not here to smell the roses.

Now I know pimple is like a chicken and probably cannot count above three but it does not appear to me that these two, among others, with assets of about €3billion are penniless and they could easily fund or buy out Providence with their small change.

It is a pity his mouth is bigger than his brain but what would you expect from a gob*hite who clearly does not know what a billion is.

Is Norway a contradiction when it produces so much gas and oil and yet is a "Green" country? Can Ireland learn from this?

"In many ways, Norway is exceptionally green. About 95% of its electricity comes from hydropower, and nearly all the rest from other renewables such as thermal and wind. It has the highest per capita use of electric cars of any country in the world: in September, a whopping 77.5% of new cars sold there were electric.25 Nov 2021"

So, its "green" credentials don't stop it from making a fortune from developing and selling its oil and gas.

So simple equation: Norway - very smart. Ireland - very stupid.

Just because you produce it does not mean you have to use it.

Wake up, Ryan.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/proposal-to-ban-sale-of-turf-unworkable-says-sf-ahead-of-d%C3%A1il-debate-1.4859610

"Sinn Féin announced its Dáil motion with Roscommon-Galway TD Claire Kerrane arguing that a ban on the sale of turf is “unfair, unworkable and will punish rural communities with no other heating options” amid the cost of living crisis and rising energy bills."

The motion and the vote will take place next Tuesday.

This will put it up to the Independents and the Country TDs and could be one in the eye for Ryan.

Interesting that Menton mentions 89m barrels when it is reckoned that Barryroe contains 346m barrels (311m oil and 45m gas). He is basing that on the 1c estimate where "The 1C, 2C and 3C reserves of the field are estimated to be 89 million barrels of oil (mmbo), 311mmbo and 624mmbo respectively.

So, if it is 346m barrels of oil equivalent versus his 89m the true value of Barryroe is about €34billion at today's prices.

Perhaps his reason for the 89m is to go for oil now rather than doing the survey next year with a possible date of oil in 2026 whereas oil now could be flowing by 2024 as I am sure the idea of 346m barrels would scare the living daylights out of Ryan.

Irrespective, it is good to hear that there is some activity in Providence and hopefully this will get a good publicity with the people of Ireland and they can put pressure on Ryan to pull his finger out.

Ranger4,

Providence will not run out of capital because it has no debt and it has a number of very large shareholders such as Larry Goodman, et al. and over 55% of the company is owned by institutional investors all of whom have very deep pockets.

In the "good" old days, before Providence consolidated down to 60m shares there were 6 billion shares in the company. There are now about 975m so it has a long way to go before it would get back to that number. And remember, they went from 60m shares to 975m so what is stopping them going from 975m back up to 6 billion?

So, let us presume in the worst scenario, that they issued 5 billion shares at 1p how much do you think they would raise?

That would raise £50m and I am sure Providence could survive on that for many years as their current run rate is peanuts and in that time I am sure Ryan will be for the birds, the country will be crying out for oil and gas, Sinn Fein will be in power and irrespective of their "green" credentials they will be after anything that will create revenue for the country.

So why all the gloom and doom?

Worth reading the current status of Rockhopper v Italy dated December 2021 and comparing it to Providence v Eamon Ryan.

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/rockhopper-in-high-hopes-after-italys-arbitration-objections-get-rejected-again/

May I remind people on here of a little item dating back to the last government when Brid Smith attempted to pass a bill banning all drilling for oil and gas which was kiboshed by a little item called a "money message" which is written into the Irish constitution.

This item says you cannot pass a bill in which there is a possibility of the government being sued for money .

The government killed the bill because it would have ended up in them paying companies such as Providence hundreds of millions of euros if it had been implemented. That is why all current licenses stand even though no new ones will be issued.

I would also refer people to the current situation with Rockhopper and Italy where Rockhopper are suing the Italian government for about $350m because the Italian government stopped them from developing an oil well in the Adriatic Sea.

The current thinking is that Rockhopper are going to win and if that is the case Providence will have the same opportunity, with EU precedent, to do the same to the Irish Government for Barryroe.

So why would the current management of Providence not sit on their hands, at no cost, as they wait for a final decision on Rockhopper as Providence are now owed much more than the $400m Rockhopper are seeking. And the longer Ryan stymies the development, the greater the sum Providence can claim because it is paying for the licenses on a yearly basis and therefore to prevent its development is a breach of contract.

The matter is even more critical now given that Europe is trying to ditch the oil and gas it gets from Russia.

Old adage: "They also serve who only stand and wait". We are waiting.

This lot could get buried under a load of turf.

Loggerheads between Varadkar, Martin and Ryan over turf.

Proposed embargo from September on the sale of "smoky fuel" is up for debate with Ryan saying it will still come in and the other two saying it should be delayed.

Varadkar, "It's off". .Ryan, "Its on".

Ryan on RTE debate with Sinn Fein.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0414/1292360-turf-sale-ban/

If you can burn turf even in the form of briquettes why can't you use gas?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40851419.html

Ryan under pressure has changed his tune.

Previously wanted to ban all turf in all forms and now he says you can burn your own turf and everybody can use briquettes which are only compressed turf as they are healthy, according to Ryan.

Ryan, "we will still be selling peat briquettes because science says that can be done so it doesn’t damage health."

But briquettes make smoke so why are they better than gas?