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Your basis for this foresight being 44,000 sold today Vs 117,000 bought?
Low volumes like these don't suggest placees are lining up to sell. Especially when buys outnumber sales by a factor of 3.
The numbers tomorrow are very likely to be spectacular so I suspect there will be a pretty significant hike in the SP.
Hoping for the best for the faithful next week.
It will be 23rd according to 8Capital note posted earlier on the thread. Numbers should be stellar.
Folks anticipating further upward momentum.
https://equity.guru/2022/08/17/southern-energy-continues-uptrend-as-natural-gas-prices-spike-on-european-rationing/
I anticipated Tom selling DEC and bought his shares a couple of days ago. ;)
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-energy-shortage-natural-gas-winter-storage-production-freeport-lng-2022-8
That won't hurt either.
An important piece of the plan will see significant revenue growth and profitability announced next Tuesday. Atkinson gave qualitative confirmation of good Gwinville flows in the interview. Quantification imminent.
Next drilling starting Oct will result in step changes to resources and production by end of this year. Freeport back online in Oct and winter price hikes to come
So there are plenty of short term catalysts for SP advancement.
Still it's nice to know there are other plans beyond this year. Show me another share that promises to increase value at a similar rate 'in the current market' and I'll thank you for the info.
Good interview. All very positive. Pleased to hear him talking about organic AND inorganic growth again as the tone of one of the recent 8Capital notes seemed to hint that they were deprioritising acquisitions post the hype of the placing.
Should all be fuel to the fire of SP momentum.
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Post# 34899406
VIII Capital - drooling over this one still
Just a reminder of our technical view
It falls into the bucket of Jr’s that we like---ones who can grow production meaningfully.
The company is drilling wells using Generation 3 technology, which we see providing upside to management guidance/5 year plan.
It’s important to note that due to securities laws in London, where the company is dual listed, management isn’t allowed to show guidance based on Gen 3 until they provide actual results. Therefore, this is a key potential catalyst.
Our latest note from July (link) demonstrates the upside potential is meaningful in estimated total production through 2026 (see first figure below).
The company continues to ramp up the first three wells drilled using Gen 3 technology. We expect an update by the time the company reports on 8/23.
Early results provided by SOU have been on track with Gen 3 expctations.
Pure play on U.S. Gulf Coast natural gas pricing.
The continued LNG export buildout from the U.S. plus the U.S./EU LNG agreement (as way to eliminate consumption of natural gas from Russia) has made U.S. natural gas prices even more globally linked. Issues in Europe continue to push European natural gas prices higher (see Figure 2).
SOU provides you with US Gulf Coast pricing exposure, which we see going higher in October once the Freeport LNG facility comes back on line.
SOU’s natural gas production has been receiving a premium to NYMEX of late due to strong cooling demand (see third figure).
As we point out in our aforementioned July note, on 6/27, SOU entered into basis swaps covering just under 40% of its physical price exposure with a basis swap transaction securing an average premium to NYMEX of US$0.39/MMBtu from 7/1/22 to 12/31/22. This compares to the traditional range of between NYMEX plus or minus US$0.05/MMBtu. The company stated that it will continue to look for opportunities to hedge more basis differentials.
Finally, it is cheap trading at only 1.4x EV/2023E DACF at STRIP
One of the cheapest in our coverage
The placing shares went to selected institutional investors and they presumably will have been briefed as to why they should anticipate a healthy return on their investment.
There has been no indication of regular selling at any meaningful scale and traded volumes have been a fraction of average volumes for several weeks. It seems most are awaiting H1 results and operational updates in anticipation.
Broker views suggest at least a doubling of the SP by mid next year. With NG prices creeping higher even before we hit winter it's hard to imagine a clamour to sell, but who knows what tomorrow might bring. DYOR and good luck.
California predicted to be facing an imminent heatwave which has seen the Nymex spot price for NG touching $9 again. With Freeport getting capacity back in October the gap to European pricing should narrow. Souc revenues will make for very interesting reading later this month and all the drivers suggest they will remain spectacular for the foreseeable. SP should undergo a step change very soon.
Springing a placement on shareholders that knocked 40% off of the value of their shareholding dents trust big time and takes some recovering from.
I expect very impressive revenue growth for H1 and if combined with good news on flows and future drilling we should see souc take off. Patience needed for another week or two.
Decent finish in Canada yesterday ~52p. Don't expect much movement in SP pending news.
Trading volumes have been low both sides of the pond of late as folks anticipate next RNS. Hopefully stellar on income alone. Updates on flows and clarity on drilling and M&A as potential cherries the cake. Not long to wait now.
Thanks for your latest Viable. Always appreciate you sharing your thoughts.
The company seems to have used a broker note from the main underwriter of the placement to back away from the acquisition story and to give emphasis to an accelerated drilling program. In terms of use of the money raised that seems fine. However I'd like to see the SP back above the placement price soon other to reduce the risk of II's selling off from impatience and reinvesting elsewhere. Are they struggling to secure a drilling rig or natural gas piping to upgrade the infrastructure? If not the radio silence seems strange.
Lack of news since the placing is now eroding the recent recovery in S.P. The H1 results are due later this month but the impact of apositive RNS is reduced each day that goes by with continued silence. Surely an update on Gwinville flows could be given to underpin current S.P.
Bigger fish circling?
It certainly wouldn't surprise if that is the case. By having an exchange with Kistos, SQZ has signaled that it is 'in play' as far as potential mergers or acquisitions are concerned. The big boys have money burning holes in their pockets and will surely be interested in picking up some European NG supplies at a time of record high prices.
Would seem to bode well for a positive update that can't be far off now. A few potential catalysts for share price include quarter earnings announcement, update on Gwinville flows, confirmation and details of Q4 drilling plans. With Nymex spot prices lose to recent highs and Freeport resumption before year end there are plenty of potential positives. Topped up yesterday whilst we are still at placing price.
Higher than average volume drove tsx up yesterday. Nymex spot price up again today and looks to be heading back above 9. Maybe an update on Gwinville to coincide with TSX opening today?
Nymex spot price back above $8. Souc's next revenue update going to look mighty good.