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Up 3% so far today. Expectations of disruption to Russian Gas flow to Europe from today as Russian troops disrupt operations of key Ukranian pipeline.
Another reason why the upward trend in gas pricing is unlikely to change in the next year or two.

@ Mole.

The absence of TR1 is striking. It is very nearly 2 months since the last one and my sense of things, based on the numbers of large round number sells is that institutional holder(s) have been selling at a rate of roughly 250k shares per day. If my impression is reasonably 'correct' it would mean a single II, acting on its own would sell off 1% of the shareholding every 2 to 3 weeks. Either there are several large holders in sell mode or someone is shorting the SP? Hard to explain the relentless sell off with no TR1 otherwise?

My guess is they are assuming normal trading conditions but is that a reasonable assumption when ~30% of the companies shares are in the hands of administrators? The fundamentals (financial) promise much, but it seems the many uncertainties associated with LOG outweigh those and seem to deter new II's so the ongoing profit taking is acting to drag the share price down. There's no doubt that since first gas IOG must be in the bottom quartile performer's in the sector. Last 5 days IOG down 12%. Others are up 25%!

Happy I recently switched some of my IOG investment to SOUC. It is flying with recent broker targets of 3× current shate price. I have recouped most of recent IOG downturn but still retain some shares here (sentiment beating sense?). SOUC worth a look but DYOR.

What rumours?

@Peak.

It all defies logic and is hugely frustrating. I finally succumbed and switched some of my holding into SOUC this morning. Felt the need to remind myself what a blue day looks like!

Still holding here but it does feel like there is no immediate end to the sell off in sight. Made a bit on Souc already today so can always use dome on that profit to average down here.

By the way, unless I'm mistaken the LOG sell down was pretty much coincident with first gas. That seemed to set the ball rolling.

Given the persistent downward pressure on the SP I wonder how many of the II's are selling? Looking at the daily figures and assuming the big 'round number' sells are mainly II's I would have thought a TR1 would be imminent unless the selling is a wider trend than I had imagined?

I doubt there is any link to daily gas price. BP up, SOUC up UK.Oil and Gas up. Iog down...again!

@GIGS

That would be great. Have I got pricing wrong or conversion to tonnes?

SP unimpressed so far. Down 3% in early trading. Something stinks.

From what I see on Google condensate is worth ~£120
Per tonne and 1000 bl equates to about 130 tonnes. So it should add 15-20k per day to revenues. Worth having, but a relatively small contribution to revenues.

Suggests an average revenue since first gas of something like 500 to 700k per day given the fluctuations in price and volumes. Not too bad considering the chemical injection issue at Blythe. If thie volumes continue to ramp up as suggested, we should see revenues closer to £1 million per day in the near term future (subject to price fluctuations). In broad terms roughly 3 months of revenues should cover the anticipated capital spend for the rest of the year. This should leave 200 to 250 million of revenues from the remainder of the current year with those revenues projected to more or less double by year end if Southwark meets expectations.

Morning Sailor. Many thanks for a positive update and have a great holiday weekend!

Hi Edgar,

They may be in regular contact with the administrators but they have not discussed how IOG can proactively and directly work with them to minimise the negative impact of the overhang. Rather they have asked the administrators to give them a share price that they might be willing to sell at so that IOG can then try to find 3rd party II's willing to pay that price! Little wonder the administrators have not responded.

IOG has an obligation to shareholders to deliver value and in the longer term I believe the SP must rise to reflect the value of the assets. In the interim they seem content to sit back and watch the SP drop 25% from the first gas high back to pre-production levels. I ask myself how they plan to attract new and enthusiastic II's when they are apparently doing little to support and sustain the SP?

As others have speculated maybe they are hoping for a buy out. For now I continue to hold whilst actively seeking to average down but it is hard to see this SP going anywhere unless and until there is some structure and certainty about the LOG sell down.

@aligator.

You are talking about a transient pressure on share price. I was discussing the longer term influences.

@Phippsy

I see no reason why they couldn't do that. The LOG administrators need to sell to settle with the LOG creditors. On the other hand IOG want to settle debts and increase shareholder value. A portion of the new revenues could be used to arrange a controlled buy back from the LOG admin.

The BOD has stated that the administrators have refused to give a price at which they would sell, but the question was apparently put to them implying IOG were seeking to facilitate purchase by an institutional investor rather than a direct buy back.

Notice my two buys £2500 & £1500 just after 8:00 have been recorded as sells. Should surely be simple to record such things accurately.

Precisely. So why don't IOG solve the problem by negotiating a share buy back? The BOD are there to create shareholder value. This lot seem content to sit back whilst the LOG overhang suppresses the company valuation and the SP.

They recently established significant positive revenue streams so results are encouraging. The BOD stands to benefit from generous incentive plans linked to easy to reach share price targets so unless they think they can make more from a buy out it's hard to see what their ulterior motive might be.

As an explanation of why SP is underperforming I lean towards a lack of strategy to manage the LOG overhang.

TR1 due?

If I assume the majority of the 'big round number sales' are from LOG admin and/ II's then my sense is they are selling down roughly 150-250 thousand shares per day or approximately 1 million shares per week. Since the 1% reporting threshold equates to about 5 million shares we can perhaps anticipate another TR1 announcement in the coming few weeks. The last TR1 was 16th March.

It will be interesting to see who is still bulk selling.

It is, how can I say it...counter intuitive, that a company that has just established significant profitable revenue streams sees it's share price plunge by some 25% since. The coming AGM might be an appropriate opportunity to ask the BOD to explain why they seem unable to deliver meaningful shareholder value in spite of key operational and financial milestones being passed.

@Dunder.

You are of course right that a persistently underperforming share price is ultimately the responsibility of the corporate management team.

I was agreeing with the principle that MM's can and do manipulate share prices and often to the detriment of retail investors. The base price from which they manipulate is down to IOG corporate. I have already commented on the lack of constructive support for the SP coming from IOG. RNS's lacking clarity and an spparently dysfunctional PR department contribute to the SP underperformance. For me the biggest problem is the LOG overhang and the associated risk/uncertainty which must serve as a deterrent to new II's. IOG could help by directing some of the new revenue streams to share buyback.