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I doubt there is any link to daily gas price. BP up, SOUC up UK.Oil and Gas up. Iog down...again!
@GIGS
That would be great. Have I got pricing wrong or conversion to tonnes?
SP unimpressed so far. Down 3% in early trading. Something stinks.
From what I see on Google condensate is worth ~£120
Per tonne and 1000 bl equates to about 130 tonnes. So it should add 15-20k per day to revenues. Worth having, but a relatively small contribution to revenues.
Suggests an average revenue since first gas of something like 500 to 700k per day given the fluctuations in price and volumes. Not too bad considering the chemical injection issue at Blythe. If thie volumes continue to ramp up as suggested, we should see revenues closer to £1 million per day in the near term future (subject to price fluctuations). In broad terms roughly 3 months of revenues should cover the anticipated capital spend for the rest of the year. This should leave 200 to 250 million of revenues from the remainder of the current year with those revenues projected to more or less double by year end if Southwark meets expectations.
Morning Sailor. Many thanks for a positive update and have a great holiday weekend!
Hi Edgar,
They may be in regular contact with the administrators but they have not discussed how IOG can proactively and directly work with them to minimise the negative impact of the overhang. Rather they have asked the administrators to give them a share price that they might be willing to sell at so that IOG can then try to find 3rd party II's willing to pay that price! Little wonder the administrators have not responded.
IOG has an obligation to shareholders to deliver value and in the longer term I believe the SP must rise to reflect the value of the assets. In the interim they seem content to sit back and watch the SP drop 25% from the first gas high back to pre-production levels. I ask myself how they plan to attract new and enthusiastic II's when they are apparently doing little to support and sustain the SP?
As others have speculated maybe they are hoping for a buy out. For now I continue to hold whilst actively seeking to average down but it is hard to see this SP going anywhere unless and until there is some structure and certainty about the LOG sell down.
@aligator.
You are talking about a transient pressure on share price. I was discussing the longer term influences.
@Phippsy
I see no reason why they couldn't do that. The LOG administrators need to sell to settle with the LOG creditors. On the other hand IOG want to settle debts and increase shareholder value. A portion of the new revenues could be used to arrange a controlled buy back from the LOG admin.
The BOD has stated that the administrators have refused to give a price at which they would sell, but the question was apparently put to them implying IOG were seeking to facilitate purchase by an institutional investor rather than a direct buy back.
Notice my two buys £2500 & £1500 just after 8:00 have been recorded as sells. Should surely be simple to record such things accurately.
Precisely. So why don't IOG solve the problem by negotiating a share buy back? The BOD are there to create shareholder value. This lot seem content to sit back whilst the LOG overhang suppresses the company valuation and the SP.
They recently established significant positive revenue streams so results are encouraging. The BOD stands to benefit from generous incentive plans linked to easy to reach share price targets so unless they think they can make more from a buy out it's hard to see what their ulterior motive might be.
As an explanation of why SP is underperforming I lean towards a lack of strategy to manage the LOG overhang.
TR1 due?
If I assume the majority of the 'big round number sales' are from LOG admin and/ II's then my sense is they are selling down roughly 150-250 thousand shares per day or approximately 1 million shares per week. Since the 1% reporting threshold equates to about 5 million shares we can perhaps anticipate another TR1 announcement in the coming few weeks. The last TR1 was 16th March.
It will be interesting to see who is still bulk selling.
It is, how can I say it...counter intuitive, that a company that has just established significant profitable revenue streams sees it's share price plunge by some 25% since. The coming AGM might be an appropriate opportunity to ask the BOD to explain why they seem unable to deliver meaningful shareholder value in spite of key operational and financial milestones being passed.
@Dunder.
You are of course right that a persistently underperforming share price is ultimately the responsibility of the corporate management team.
I was agreeing with the principle that MM's can and do manipulate share prices and often to the detriment of retail investors. The base price from which they manipulate is down to IOG corporate. I have already commented on the lack of constructive support for the SP coming from IOG. RNS's lacking clarity and an spparently dysfunctional PR department contribute to the SP underperformance. For me the biggest problem is the LOG overhang and the associated risk/uncertainty which must serve as a deterrent to new II's. IOG could help by directing some of the new revenue streams to share buyback.
@Aligator,
Totally agree. The AIM market is a casino and the manipulation of SP's by market makers is outrageous at times. I have painful experience of their pump and dump tactics. It isn't unusual too see a share price drop by 5,10 15% to trigger stop losses so they can accumulate shares in the morning to sell on to II's in the afternoon resulting in quite ridiculous swings in a SP in a matter of hours. Such practices are dubious at best.
In any event let's hope today's increase sustains. A nice blue day was long overdue and another few like today would be both welcome and justified.
@Peak
Thanks again for your summary of the PI meeting, I'm sure it is appreciated by the vast majority and I am grateful for your efforts.
I'm equally convinced that the criticism isn't aimed at you so wouldn't take it personally if I were you.
To my mind there are many retail investors that are irritated by the board's lack of effort to protect the SP by simple things like better PR. Personally, I don't buy their 'nothing we can do' about LOG story . Surely they can prioritise the use of the revenue streams and, unless there are rules I am unaware of , I'm sure they could seek to negotiate a buyback scheme with the administrators and/or II's that actively selling? Removing the LOG overhang de-risks investment by new II's and I would have thought attracting fresh and enthusiastic investors would be high on any companies wish list.
As things stand I'm holding but looking for opportunities to average down. I don't see the SP moving towards the broker targets in the short term as that will take the emergence of a takeover bid or a structured buyback to eliminate the uncertainties relating to intent of the major shareholders.
Thanks Peak.
Whilst waiting on Peaks follow-up I suggest folks might find it interesting to have a look at the advfn board where there is some interesting feedback.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/iog-IOG/share-chat
I would love to know what was said at the PI meeting about the LOG administrators sell down. The line that there is an agreement with them that they will not sell in a manner that detracts from the development of a 'normal' market is, in my opinion, utterly worthless. There cannot be a 'normal market' when 27% of the companies shares are in the hands of administrators. It is rare that a companies largest shareholder is obligated to sell such a large tranche of shares in the (relative) near term future. How they go about this will obviously distort 'normal' market conditions. The only way I can see for the impact to be moderated is if IOG reach a share buy back agreement with the LOG administrators. This would facilitate an orderly and predictable sell down and make the company a much more appealing investment prospect for institutional investors.
Many will not have gone due to the ridiculously late email notification of the venue and demand of a recent negative covid test.
Maybe the caterers put a limit on the sausage rolls.
Many thanks Peak. Look forward to your insights.
Should anyone attending read this please ask how the board plan to ensure retail investors see a short-term return on their investment given the continuos sell- off by institutional investors and/or LOG administrators.