Member Info for Manofnomeans

Link to Prospex's Jan23 presentation is available on the corporate website.

https://www.prospexoilandgas.com/home/

Warrego being an Australian company report revenues in Aus$. There is nothing unusual or sinister about that.
Spanish electricity generation is dominated by wind, nuclear, base load NG plants, and Hydro. El Romerel is a small peak load plant currently operating at 30% capacity. It is a minor element in the Prospex portfolio but is generating useful income pending first gas at Selva and potential drilling at Tesirollo.

New wells are anticipated at El Romerel which will allow capacity at the power plant to increase to 100% and facilitate gas sales to the grid if more profitable than electricity.

The following presentation should help explain the true potential.of Prospex which isn't based on El Romerel.

The investor presentation from earlier this month is a good place to start to understand the real drivers for revenue and profit growth. The first of these (Selva) is "literally weeks away" according to the Po Valley opco.

Following a 4% increase yesterday, shares in Prospex's operating partner, Po Valley Energy, have now risen 33% in s month in anticipation of Selva first gas.

Just a few years ago in 2019 gas prices in Europe were 5.5 eur/MWh. Today they are 57 eur/MWh. Forward pricing for autumn/winter 2023 is above 60 eur/MWh.

Worth remembering this.

Warrego's quarterly activities report just out. Flags some significant positives particularly on permitting. Notable that Tesorillo has moved on from regulators to ministry for review and approval. Talks with ministry said to be positive and decision expected this year.

https://warregoenergy.com/

Chairman of PXEN's operating partner confirms first gas 'literally weeks away'.

https://twitter.com/KevinBaileyCFP/status/1617535559467139074?t=OUHfRUl3KeefLdTfpWsUJg&s=19

http://www.kereport.com/2023/01/17/southern-energy-introduction-to-a-growth-oriented-us-natural-gas-producer/

Link from ADVFN forum.

Highlights

Regular newsflow expected Feb through July. Drilling and completions.

Still getting Premium to nymex through Transco 4 location.

Sees current SP as misvalued and expects rerating this year.

All about European energy security. With China reopening and supply chains improving competition for supplies only going to get tougher.

From Malcy's Blog 22nd November 2022,

"All these mean that when the wells start to come into their prime in around February there should be a number of producing sites and the company will have a pretty good idea of production for 2023. Also worth noting is that early next year the company will be drilling longer laterals of 5,500-6,500 feet which should translate into improved well performance and further cost efficiencies".

First gas from the wells currently being drilled in February is consistent with the 60 day drilling schedule in the corporate presentation on the website.

With several analysts and now Malcys Blog talking of price targets around the £2 mark, we should hopefully see the SP starting to pick up in a few weeks time.

Reopening of Freeport is widely regarded as a negative for gas pricing as it argued it will reduce competition for LNG. Personally I think there are bigger factors at play such as the reopening of China and the impact of lower energy pricing and lower inflation on energy intensive industries. I see gas demand growing significantly. Look at the bidding war that is taking.place for Warrego ASX as big mining companies look to get into gas production.

Gas prices are still 4 or 5 times higher than recent historical prices even if they have fallen back from the ridiculous levels of a year ago.

SP being knocked down on ridiculously low volumes. About 12k worth of shares traded on tsx yesterday was enough to zee the SP marked Fownhope more than 2%.

News needed to stem the bleeding.

Strike Energy (33.5c) trump the Han**** offer (28.5c) for Warrego. State that increased offer is to reflect true value of Spanish assets. Can only help increase valuation of Prospex's share of those assets.

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/sorry-gina-strike-energy-boosts-its-original-takeover-offer-for-warrego

It's a long list Viable, but a cursory examination of the data for other producing wells confirms that the recently drilled wells are easily some of the companies most productive and should remain so for several years to come. It certainly reinforces the transformational potential of the ongoing drilling campaign.

I found this paper to be a helpful document to put the decline rates of the recent drilled wells in perspective. Far from being disastrous, as some have claimed, they are actually typical of what should be expected. SOUC production would seem set to grow dramatically as the drilling campaign progresses.

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/drilling/curve_analysis/

Good to hear of the high.expectations for CityBank. Do you think the Board are likely to improve communications? The radio silence since the placement has been counterproductive in terms of the SP?

https://ws.ogb.state.ms.us/MSOGBOnline/DataMining.html?EntityType=Well&EntityKeyName=WellID&EntityKeyValue=2306521128&DETAILSONLY=True

October's numbers now on the Mississippi OGB Web site (click production tab in link)

October data indicates a dramatic flattening of decline rates and suggedts the well appears to be behaving in a normal and predictable manner. The rapid initial decline in production (to be expected) is tailing off in a manner that does not support de-rampers (Stockhouse forum) that have been suggesting abnormal behaviour. Their remarks seem to have coincided with a period of falling SP from low blume trading. Hopefully we can begin to see a recovery in SP now.

SP getting a bit of a bashing on ridiculously low volumes today. 10,000 shares sold on tsx enough to see a 3.5% fall in early trading! Fingers crossed for a Santa's rally next week!

Correct. However it is not a realistic proposition that someone has a 25 year old ISA account that they have emptied to accommodate 500k worth of Prospex shares let alone £1 million worth in a 50 year old ISA account.

It was a transfer between accounts but most probably a broker or similar. It was not a purchase.

At last some communication even if there is not much we didn't already know. Still good to have confirmation that the first 3 wells remain on track for first gas in February with another 10 to follow on their heels. A tripling of production in the next 6-7 months should be good news for the SP.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Artic-Blast-Draws-Down-European-Natural-Gas-Inventories.html

Nymex up 10% today and threatening $7 again.

Had enough of the CEO's bluster and non-delivery and have now sold out. I have been fearful for some time about his pronouncementsbof and imminent J.V. as etiquette and business lawyers would typically require that such news be kept under wraps until a deal is done and both parties agree to the content and timing of an announcement. Have now reached the stage where I don't believe a word the guy says.

Good luck to those holding out for news.

Tom it has been dropping on small volume trading. Seeds of panic have been sown in relation to decline rates on initial gwinville wells. Given that 70% decline in year 1 is typical and that the drill did not stay on track I don't see the decline rates as particularly concerning.