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All about European energy security. With China reopening and supply chains improving competition for supplies only going to get tougher.
From Malcy's Blog 22nd November 2022,
"All these mean that when the wells start to come into their prime in around February there should be a number of producing sites and the company will have a pretty good idea of production for 2023. Also worth noting is that early next year the company will be drilling longer laterals of 5,500-6,500 feet which should translate into improved well performance and further cost efficiencies".
First gas from the wells currently being drilled in February is consistent with the 60 day drilling schedule in the corporate presentation on the website.
With several analysts and now Malcys Blog talking of price targets around the £2 mark, we should hopefully see the SP starting to pick up in a few weeks time.
Reopening of Freeport is widely regarded as a negative for gas pricing as it argued it will reduce competition for LNG. Personally I think there are bigger factors at play such as the reopening of China and the impact of lower energy pricing and lower inflation on energy intensive industries. I see gas demand growing significantly. Look at the bidding war that is taking.place for Warrego ASX as big mining companies look to get into gas production.
Gas prices are still 4 or 5 times higher than recent historical prices even if they have fallen back from the ridiculous levels of a year ago.
SP being knocked down on ridiculously low volumes. About 12k worth of shares traded on tsx yesterday was enough to zee the SP marked Fownhope more than 2%.
News needed to stem the bleeding.
Strike Energy (33.5c) trump the Han**** offer (28.5c) for Warrego. State that increased offer is to reflect true value of Spanish assets. Can only help increase valuation of Prospex's share of those assets.
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/sorry-gina-strike-energy-boosts-its-original-takeover-offer-for-warrego
It's a long list Viable, but a cursory examination of the data for other producing wells confirms that the recently drilled wells are easily some of the companies most productive and should remain so for several years to come. It certainly reinforces the transformational potential of the ongoing drilling campaign.
I found this paper to be a helpful document to put the decline rates of the recent drilled wells in perspective. Far from being disastrous, as some have claimed, they are actually typical of what should be expected. SOUC production would seem set to grow dramatically as the drilling campaign progresses.
https://www.eia.gov/analysis/drilling/curve_analysis/
Good to hear of the high.expectations for CityBank. Do you think the Board are likely to improve communications? The radio silence since the placement has been counterproductive in terms of the SP?
https://ws.ogb.state.ms.us/MSOGBOnline/DataMining.html?EntityType=Well&EntityKeyName=WellID&EntityKeyValue=2306521128&DETAILSONLY=True
October's numbers now on the Mississippi OGB Web site (click production tab in link)
October data indicates a dramatic flattening of decline rates and suggedts the well appears to be behaving in a normal and predictable manner. The rapid initial decline in production (to be expected) is tailing off in a manner that does not support de-rampers (Stockhouse forum) that have been suggesting abnormal behaviour. Their remarks seem to have coincided with a period of falling SP from low blume trading. Hopefully we can begin to see a recovery in SP now.
SP getting a bit of a bashing on ridiculously low volumes today. 10,000 shares sold on tsx enough to see a 3.5% fall in early trading! Fingers crossed for a Santa's rally next week!
Correct. However it is not a realistic proposition that someone has a 25 year old ISA account that they have emptied to accommodate 500k worth of Prospex shares let alone £1 million worth in a 50 year old ISA account.
It was a transfer between accounts but most probably a broker or similar. It was not a purchase.
At last some communication even if there is not much we didn't already know. Still good to have confirmation that the first 3 wells remain on track for first gas in February with another 10 to follow on their heels. A tripling of production in the next 6-7 months should be good news for the SP.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Artic-Blast-Draws-Down-European-Natural-Gas-Inventories.html
Nymex up 10% today and threatening $7 again.
Had enough of the CEO's bluster and non-delivery and have now sold out. I have been fearful for some time about his pronouncementsbof and imminent J.V. as etiquette and business lawyers would typically require that such news be kept under wraps until a deal is done and both parties agree to the content and timing of an announcement. Have now reached the stage where I don't believe a word the guy says.
Good luck to those holding out for news.
Tom it has been dropping on small volume trading. Seeds of panic have been sown in relation to decline rates on initial gwinville wells. Given that 70% decline in year 1 is typical and that the drill did not stay on track I don't see the decline rates as particularly concerning.
From Malcy's Blog.
"I have been a huge fan of Southern since it came to the London market last year and time after time the company has delivered solid results and this announcement is no exception. It really does tick all the boxes, production of 3,408 boe/d gives strong revenues, growing net profits and strong free cash flow deliver a healthy cash balance and all at premium prices.
One of the key differences that makes SOUC a standout in the sector is the pricing it achieves, average realised natural gas and oil prices for Q3 2022 of $10.00/Mcf and $91.93/bbl, respectively, are quite astonishing and delivered due to strategic access to premium-priced US sales hubs in a geographic region with strong industrial and power generation natural gas demand.
Next up is the top of class total process costs, running at some 65 cents per mcfe which is genuinely outstanding in the sector. Even the super-majors who should be much cheaper with their vastly larger throughputs are well over $1 per mcfe, the answer is partly in the much cheaper transportation by Southern and partly due to the high quality infrastructure particularly in the Gwinville where the Selma and City Bank formations are key.
All these mean that when the wells start to come into their prime in around February there should be a number of producing sites and the company will have a pretty good idea of production for 2023. Also worth noting is that early next year the company will be drilling longer laterals of 5,500-6,500 feet which should translate into improved well performance and further cost efficiencies.
All these mean that when the wells start to come into their prime in around February there should be a number of producing sites and the company will have a pretty good idea of production for 2023. Also worth noting is that early next year the company will be drilling longer laterals of 5,500-6,500 feet which will be in the reservoir for most of that time.
So, to sum up Southern does indeed tick all my boxes, plenty of wells ensuring growing production which get premium pricing and at the lowest costs possible. The company will therefore produce low cost, high margin gas with massive potential upside, what’s not to like? With a target price of 150p before looking at the longer term upside a place in the Bucket list is a given for Southern"
https://www.malcysblog.com/2022/11/oil-price-southern-kistos-coro-petrofac-and-finally/
Nymex back solidly above 6 today.
You are spot on about folks having a grasp of the history of postings. Those that do might struggle to relate to your suggestion that I offer a different explanation for the placement 'every time I post on it'.
Pity you now seem to be entering the realms of fantasy.
Back up 7% on the TSX otentially recoveringvall of yesterday's drop.
So you didn't recognise the potential of the company early enough, bought in just before the placement and are still down on your investment as a result. It'd explain your crying over a 'corporate mugging'. As I have indicated previously maybe you should do a bit more research before investing?
The placing was done to raise finances to fund near term growth by acquisition and/or by exploitation of existing assets. The drilling programme that is about to start will hopefully result in a step change of SOUC's production at a time when gas prices are at historic highs. I expect the SP to increase as a result.
If you can't wait to see the benefits of that then take your loss, invest somewhere else and stop whining because your aspiration of an instant win hasn't been met on your expected timeline.
You are becoming tiresome and contribute nothing constructive which is both strange and, yes, sad for someone that claims to be an investor.
I
Not really some of the good news is tied to regulatory deadlines so won't be 'consistently missed'. Of course the start of the drilling campaign has been delayed by rig availability, but it is anticipated it will get underway this month.
I see no reason not to be loyal to a company I have a significant investment in. In fact it would be strange to invest if I didn't have faith in them coming through.
Kind of makes me wonder about folks that inhabit bulletin boards to talk companies down. Can't be investors which suggests a sad outlook on life.