RE: Net present value13 Feb 2025 22:13
Hi Gemrusty,
Please forgive me but I had taken a wild stab in the dark at this previously, I’m not a mining financier so please bear with me on this.
Below is a hypothetical example for Empire with some logic applied. In this scenario, I of course made some assumptions.
1. Time Period:
Let t = year, where t = 1, 2, 3, …, 100.
2. Production Schedule, P(t):
For years 1 ≤ t ≤ 5: P(t) = 10,000 metric tonnes
For years 6 ≤ t ≤ 10: P(t) = 20,000 metric tonnes
For years 11 ≤ t ≤ 15: P(t) = 30,000 metric tonnes
For years t ≥ 16: P(t) = 40,000 metric tonnes
3. Titanium Price:
Price = $5,550 per metric tonne (sponge Ti02)
4. Operating Expense per Tonne (with economies of scale):
We assume that in the startup phase (at 10,000 tonnes per year) the cost is $1,200 per tonne. With economies of scale, the per‐tonne operating expense in year t is given by:
OpEx_per_tonne(t) = 1,200 × (0.9)^(⌊t/5⌋)
(Here, ⌊t/5⌋ means “the integer part of t divided by 5”, i.e. the number of complete 5-year periods elapsed.)
5. Annual Operating Expense, OpEx(t):
OpEx(t) = P(t) × OpEx_per_tonne(t)
6. Annual Revenue, R(t):
R(t) = P(t) × 5,550
7. Net Annual Cash Flow, CF(t):
CF(t) = R(t) – OpEx(t)
8. Discount Factor:
With a discount rate, r = 0.07 (7%), the discount factor for year t is:
DF(t) = (1 + 0.07)^t
9. Present Value of Cash Flow in Year t, PV(t):
PV(t) = CF(t) / DF(t)
10. Net Present Value (NPV) Calculation:
With an initial capital expenditure (CapEx) of $10,000,000, the NPV is given by:
NPV = (∑ from t=1 to 100 of [PV(t)]) – 10,000,000
= (∑ from t=1 to 100 of [CF(t) / (1 + 0.07)^t]) – 10,000,000
When these assumptions are put into the formula the estimated NPV comes out to be approximately $1.56 billion.
This HYPOTHETICAL example shows how production ramp-up and economies of scale can be incorporated into Empires NPV calculation. Adjustments to the assumptions (such as the scaling factor, discount rate, or cost per tonne) would change the result accordingly. I’ve used the max 40,000 tonnes per year based on the current highest producer VSMPO-AVISMA production figures.
Things to consider:
• Sustainability of Production: Maintaining a production level of 40,000 metric tons annually over a century is ambitious and would require substantial reserves and consistent operational efficiency but we do have the reserves, maybe we’ll produce even more?
• Market Dynamics: Fluctuations in titanium prices and demand could significantly impact revenue projections. I’ve seen sponge priced at $10,000 per tonne.
• Operational Costs: The assumed OpEx of $10 million may be conservative for such a large-scale operation; actual costs could be higher but as we might start off small it’s just an estimate.
• Regulatory and Environmental Factors: Long-term, Pitfi