RE: Resource Estimates9 Jun 2025 11:01
Following on from this calculations thread and being ultra conservative in the calculations;
We’ve just had some seriously impressive results from the latest testwork at Pitfield. The team has managed to produce a titanium dioxide product with 99.25% purity using conventional processing methods. That kind of quality opens the door to high-value uses like titanium sponge metal and high-grade pigment production which is what Shaun was targeting.
Now, looking at the bigger picture, we’ve got around 1.1 billion tonnes of ore (educated assumption) at an average grade of 5% (already secure). That gives us about 55 million tonnes of contained TiO2 in the ground.
To be realistic, I’ve tried to run the numbers again using really conservative assumptions.
First, let’s say only 60% of that TiO2 is actually recoverable through processing. (I expect more as 78% was first referenced in a previous RNS). That gives us 33m T of usable titanium dioxide. Then, if we assume just 50% of that makes it through to titanium sponge after refining, we’re left with around 16.5m T of sponge metal.
Instead of using the full $6,000 /T sponge market price, I’ve taken it down to $4,000 to account for any market pressure, pricing volatility, or product qualification challenges. That would still give us a potential revenue figure of $66b.
After that, I’ve factored in a 50% deduction for all capital and operating costs, including infrastructure, processing, logistics, royalties, and everything else.
That brings us to a “very rough” net value of around $33b.
Obviously, a lot more work needs to be done to turn that into a real-world figure, but even with these very cautious numbers, I think it shows just how big this could be. The fact that we’ve already produced such a high-purity product this early in development is a really strong signal of what might be ahead.
On top of that, let’s not forget we’re in WA, a tier-one mining jurisdiction with a strong legal framework, clear permitting processes, and a deep pool of mining expertise. The Pitfield site itself is close to existing infrastructure, including roads, power, and ports which should dramatically lower development hurdles and costs down the line.
We’ve also got a supportive, pro-mining community in the region, and that’s a huge plus for long-term project stability.
And if we zoom out a bit further we’re potentially looking at the early stages of a global commodity supercycle. Titanium is tied to aerospace, defence, clean tech, and advanced manufacturing, all sectors expected to grow over the next decade. High-purity, low-impurity, easy strip supply like what we’ve demonstrated here could be very attractive to downstream partners.
I think this is shaping up to be something much bigger than originally expected. The scale, the purity, the location, and the timing all seem to be aligning and it feels like we’re still only scratching the surface.
DYOR
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