Member Info for Manlord

Currently we have about 690m shares in issue, and the share price is roughly 27p giving the company a market cap around £186m.

If we apply the valuation percentages I just mentioned to the estimated £13b to £24b in situ profit value, here’s what I got (please feel free to challenge these figures as I don’t want to miss anything).

At 1% of in situ value, the market cap would be £240m which translates to a share price of about 34.8p which were already targeting via the charts.

At 3%, the market cap jumps to £390m to £720m, or 56.5p to 104.4p per share.

At 5% to 10%, the market cap ranges from £650 million to £2.4 billion, with a share price between 94.2p and 347.8p

Right now, the market cap is roughly 0.63% of the estimated in situ value, which is very low, even by early stage exploration standards and especially low given the scale and location (which has a far lower risk premium that often suppresses valuations in parts of Africa, Southeast Asia, or Latin America). It also makes the project vastly more appealing for future joint ventures, project finance, or offtake negotiations with end-users or majors.

In terms of peer comparisons, my workings follow an industry trend so again I keep getting these confirmations? Again feel free to challenge as I don’t want this to be a one-sided vacuum.

Sovereign SVML (ASX/AIM) was trading at 3% to 5% of in situ TiO2 value once its resource was defined, even though it’s in Malawi, a much riskier jurisdiction.

Andrada Mining (AIM), despite being in Namibia and focused on lithium and tin, trades around 2% to 3% of in situ once metallurgy and expansion plans were outlined.

Iluka Resources, the largest pure-play titanium company in Australia, of course trades at much higher valuations but shows how the market supports these types of deposits once de-risked.

These aren’t perfect comparisons but they give us a rough guide. Once we have the MRE out and metallurgy confirmed, there’s every reason to think we could move into that 3% - 5% bracket initially, even conservatively. That alone would be a significant re-rate.

I don’t want this to be misleading in any way so happy to discuss this in detail. There are obviously still many steps to go before this value gets recognised fully in the share price. The MRE needs to confirm the size, the metallurgy must show recoveries (78% already secured) that support the margin assumptions, and we will need to communicate a clear path to development and production which SB says he is confident of achieving.

That said, if the MRE comes in strong and the project is de-risked further, I think there’s every reason to believe the market will rerate us substantially higher, potentially multiple times the current price.

The upside potential here is real, and as shareholders, we’re in a good spot if the story continues to unfold positively. Roll on August.

ML

I’ve done a serious amount of research into Empire over the years (probably weeks worth) and as we get closer to the Mineral Resource Estimate coming out, I really wanted to step it up to ensure I’m not missing anything. I think it’s useful to share how companies like Empire are usually valued, especially when the deposit could be as big as it looks and in one of the safest mining jurisdictions in the world.

For companies Empire, valuation isn’t about earnings or revenue today. Instead, the market tends to look at the in situ value which is the total estimated profit sitting in the ground from the resource (Pitfield Thomas Prospect). From what I can see the market typically applies a % to that figure, depending on the stage of the project, how much risk there is, the quality of the resource, and where it is located.

As I outlined yesterday (Ageos has agreed in general) the early numbers suggest about 1.1b tonnes of titanium ore. If we take an estimated profit margin of roughly £12 to £22 per tonne (converted from the $15 to $30 I used based on Oz) that points to an in situ profit value somewhere between £13 billion and £24 billion (I know it sounds crazy which is why I’m checking over and over). That’s not revenue, and it’s definitely not guaranteed profit, but it is a massive indication of what “could” be in the weathered cap.

The market rarely values companies at 100% of in situ value, especially at this stage but even getting a small fraction of that can translate into a huge re-rating compared to the current MC.

Typically, junior resource companies like us are valued on roughly these %’s of in situ value. Early exploration companies might trade at 0.1% to 0.5%.

With a defined resource and some basic economic data, valuations move toward 0.5% to 1.5%.

Scoping studies or pre-feasibility studies tend to push valuations into the 1% to 3% range.

Once a definitive feasibility study is done, permits are secured, and strategic partnerships, JV or offtake deals are in sight, valuations often reach 5% to 10% or more!

The location of the project matters a lot too and as we are located in Western Australia, one of the safest, lowest-risk, and infrastructure, experience rich mining jurisdictions in the world. That reduces risk premiums and usually means investors are willing to pay higher multiples than they would for similar projects in more challenging countries.

CTD……

As a matter of interest, has anyone bought in here from the Mail on Sunday article?

Rather than re-write my thoughts here over and over I'm going to share previous posts for newcomers.

Apologies to LT'ers for having to read it again. As always, feel free to critique or correct me in anything that you feel might need further discussion.

My opinion only and intended to assist with your decision to buy in or not.

ML

My £180m MC thread is now obsolete 😂

📈

ML

Gorilla man! Thanks.

In terms of main markets (some with passive dividends) I have a few very boring shares now that are far less exciting unfortunately (BP / Ryanair etc)

I also wanted some exposure to crypto (complete punt and even with the research I did it’s still pot luck) I hold 2 alt coins. I bought them both for my son & daughter and they’ll be zero or a million by the time they grow up. No real issue if they go either way.

ML

Classy post BFFM 👏🏼

It takes a solid individual to congratulate others on their success or gains.

Thank you.

ML

Empires average daily volume exceeded within 90 minutes of trading.

Liquidity is improving but the MM’s doing all they can with the spread to ensure an orderly re-rate takes places rather than super spikes.

ML

As per heading.

Empire up 7% (+260% YTD)

Iperion X - down 4% (-22% YTD)

Kenmare down 1.4% (-3% YTD)

Sovereign Metals down 1.6% (£207m MC & -12% YTD)

Not a rivalry, just a moment of change, but Empire is nearly side by side with Sovereign Metals, and the next step could redefine the Titanium landscape.

ML

Empire is backed by the Australian government, the group is in talks with officials around the world and interest is mounting among potential customers, from Japanese titanium specialists to pigment and paint producers.

In the next few months, Bunn expects to produce an independent estimate of his mine’s resources, a study on costs and a new test facility to fast-track development.

Turning a vast mine site into a commercial operation is a tough job and an expensive one. But Bunn and his team are seasoned hands and are already evaluating ways to finance this project and take it to fruition. The rewards could be extensive. High-grade titanium dioxide sells for thousands of dollars a ton, demand is rising and Empire is well positioned to benefit.

Early-stage miners are not for the faint-hearted, but existing shareholders have already done well out of Empire and, at 23p, the shares still look like a bargain for adventurous investors.

ML

Updated to include first section of the Mail on Sunday article:

IN THE midst of World War One, the American government made a disturbing discovery – several vital metals needed for the military effort were increasingly hard to find.

Officials swiftly drew up a critical mineral list, alongside a policy to help secure these compounds. Similar policies have now been drawn up across the Western world, focusing on minerals that are essential for defence, energy and technology. The Tories devised a strategy for the UK not long after a 2022 government study said more effort should be devoted to ensuring that key minerals can be delivered internally.

Government concerns are all too real. China dominates the metals industry and can withdraw supplies at a whim. Russia is a major producer of many commodities. Not all its goods are under sanction. Under specific circumstances, the Kremlin has put the entire world on notice and global supply chains are increasingly under threat.

For canny investors, this disarray – so closely echoing a century-old conundrum – creates a rare opportunity. Certain mining firms and behind-the-scenes specialists are benefiting from rising demand for their wares.

Certain stocks stand out, including titanium-focused Empire Metals, whose shares have doubled since Midas tipped them 18 months ago.

LIGHTWEIGHT, durable and rust resistant, titanium is a vital component for the defence industry, used in tanks, submarines, aircraft and missiles. The metal also plays a key role in renewable energy, while its dazzling white cousin titanium dioxide is essential for paints, plastics and paper.

Empire is developing one of the largest titanium mines in the world, a 400 square mile site in Western Australia, just north of Perth.

Midas recommended the shares in December 2023 at 9.5p. Today they are 23p, but supporters believe the price has much further to go, with several important milestones to come this year and next.

Most titanium comes from low-grade ore, which is processed to create titanium dioxide. Conversion is costly, particularly for defence equipment and premium pigments, which need top-quality material.

Empire’s mine is different, with exceptionally pure titanium dioxide that is ideal for the highest-grade titanium markets.

Just this month, Empire chief executive Shaun Bunn, a geologist with decades of experience, unveiled tests showing his mine can simply and cost-effectively deliver titanium dioxide that is more than 99 per cent pure.

The news puts Empire in a different league from conventional producers and it has set pulses racing among investors, customers and government experts.

Titanium is on critical mineral lists around the world, but the good stuff is in extremely short supply.

CTD…..

Thanks for the comments guys 👍🏼

ML

Thank you Ageos.

Your technical expertise is greatly appreciated.

I was hoping to have a day on the couch nursing a red wine hangover! With your information shared and the Mail on Sunday article from Joanne Hart, I’ll be busy educating myself on the points you wrote once, but I had to read three times 😄

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.

ML

Daily Mail Article

LIGHTWEIGHT, durable and rust resistant, titanium is a vital component for the defence industry, used in tanks, submarines, aircraft and missiles. The metal also plays a key role in renewable energy, while its dazzling white cousin titanium dioxide is essential for paints, plastics and paper.

Empire is developing one of the largest titanium mines in the world, a 400 square mile site in Western Australia, just north of Perth.

Midas recommended the shares in December 2023 at 9.5p. Today they are 23p, but supporters believe the price has much further to go, with several important milestones to come this year and next.

Most titanium comes from low-grade ore, which is processed to create titanium dioxide. Conversion is costly, particularly for defence equipment and premium pigments, which need top-quality material.

Empire’s mine is different, with exceptionally pure titanium dioxide that is ideal for the highest-grade titanium markets.

Just this month, Empire chief executive Shaun Bunn, a geologist with decades of experience, unveiled tests showing his mine can simply and cost-effectively deliver titanium dioxide that is more than 99 per cent pure.

The news puts Empire in a different league from conventional producers and it has set pulses racing among investors, customers and government experts.

Titanium is on critical mineral lists around the world, but the good stuff is in extremely short supply.

Empire is backed by the Australian government, the group is in talks with officials around the world and interest is mounting among potential customers, from Japanese titanium specialists to pigment and paint producers.

In the next few months, Bunn expects to produce an independent estimate of his mine’s resources, a study on costs and a new test facility to fast-track development.

Turning a vast mine site into a commercial operation is a tough job and an expensive one. But Bunn and his team are seasoned hands and are already evaluating ways to finance this project and take it to fruition. The rewards could be extensive. High-grade titanium dioxide sells for thousands of dollars a ton, demand is rising and Empire is well positioned to benefit.

Early-stage miners are not for the faint-hearted, but existing shareholders have already done well out of Empire and, at 23p, the shares still look like a bargain for adventurous investors.

ML

Thanks for sharing Alfred George. I had been in touch with Joanne twice since her initial article in December 2023 when Empire was at 10p. The reason I had been in touch was that her subsequent article, December 2024, where she reviews her previous year's picks did not have Empire in the review. Whilst 2024 was a very productive year in terms of background work for Empire, I think the concerted and very obvious effort from certain people to derail Empire's momentum, which was witnessed in the first six months of 2024, certainly didn't help. The only way Shaun could answer those questions or those doubts was to publish results and data, which were subsequently communicated in late 2024 and into 2025. It was an unfortunate period. However, it does prove to me that there are others out there who are very genuinely concerned about the trajectory that Empire is on and the merits of the Pitfield project. We haven't seen those people since all the confirmed Pitfield data has come out, so I think we've weathered that particular storm.

A nasty byproduct of AIM.

ML

Hi PeakDread,

Re; your post at 11:55am - I completely agree with you here. The only thing I would have a very minor different take on is that long-termers getting in now would be "gambling" on a positive MRE.

Given the consistent and widespread mineralisation observed across both the Thomas and Cosgrave prospects to date, there’s a far greater chance the upcoming MRE will reflect continuity and solid grades rather than any erratic or disappointing outcome. With drilling now covering a broader area and showing depth consistency, and with the resource being modelled on 400x200m spacing, it’s statistically unlikely, but not impossible, that grades would suddenly fluctuate unpredictably. The data so far supports a more uniform, positive result which for me captures the shift from speculation to educated and informed expectation.

Apart from that, I'm on your page.

ML

Hi TitanKnight,

Your message has certainly struck a chord with me today as I'm sure with everyone else also.

It’s easy to get caught up in the SP, the speculation, the waiting, the research, the charts, but your words brought it back to what truly matters. Health isn’t just wealth, it’s pretty much EVERYTHING!

I’m genuinely moved to know that something I might have said or gave opinion on here has helped in any small way, especially if it’s gone towards something as real and important as improving your day to day life. That matters infinitely more than everything Empire has in the ground at Pitfield. Sometimes these boards can feel like a cavern of unfiltered noise (pun 100% intended), but messages like yours remind us why we post here. I’ll be thinking of you, and I sincerely hope whatever you’re dealing with gets lighter and more manageable with time. Onward and upwards!

Look after yourself. Genuinely.

I'll also be sure to raise a glass this evening.................................Slainte mo Chaire!

ML

And like night follows day, it’s immediately followed by 2 green boxes! 🙄

Take a long hard look at yourself - pathetic behaviour.

BYE 👋🏼

ML

It's a claim that has raised eyebrows among some, but this week, Empire reported production of a product assaying at 99.25% titanium using its conventional beneficiation, leaching and refining processes, making it ideal for pigments and other downstream uses.

A 70t bulk sample will be used to generate finished product samples for marketing purposes.

Metallurgically, the next step is to see if kaolin can be floated off from the associated clays, which would substantially reduce the waste stream and produce a by-product.

Bunn thinks Pitfield will find plenty of willing buyers, given the global market for titanium was worth around US$24 billion last year and is expected to reach $54 billion by 2034.

As Bunn says, there's no better place in the world to find a deposit like Pitfield than WA's Mid West region. It offers access to road and rail infrastructure, export facilities at Geraldton, and access to abundant gas and wind energy.

It's no surprise Empire is considering an ASX listing given market support for mining.

As evidence for that support, Empire is trading up 1350% since making its Pitfield discovery in 2023.

Titanium is classed as a critical mineral by governments around the globe for its use in technology, aerospace, medical, and industrial applications, given it can withstand extreme environments without compromising structural integrity.

Not surprisingly, supply is dominated by China, which last year produced 3.3 million tonnes, with Mozambique in second place today, producing 1.9Mt of ilmenite.

Australia is already the world's fourth-largest exporter of titanium minerals, shipping 200,000tpa of rutile and 400,000t of ilmenite.

Given the geopolitical environment and a reliance on low-quality ilmenite, there's plenty of support for new and simple supplies of titanium from stable jurisdictions.

And yes, titanium, first discovered in 1791, is named after the mythological Greek Titans for its exceptional strength-to-weight ratio.

Empire will be presenting at the MiningNews Select Australia 2025 conference on July 1-2 at Crown Perth, Western Australia.

The more PR the better, there’s a very distinct difference between how Empire was viewed by the market in 2024, to how it is now. The scientific data and results can’t be disputed anymore & the industry can’t ignore it.

Hopefully this thread wont be machine gun replied and ruined as usual.

ML

I only posted this very good article and sadly it was followed by 17 green boxes late yesterday evening.

What a waste of my time seeing it buried pages down.

Huge readership which will certainly boost visibility of the company. Empire were named first in a list of their latest newsletter.

The world is struggling to meet demand for titanium as traditional rutile supplies dry up, but two emerging Australian discoveries targeting less traditional minerals could be game-changers.

Rutile is the premium product to process, given its high titanium grades, but it accounts for just 5% of global supply. Ilmenite dominates the market but needs to be upgraded to synthetic rutile before it can be used, so is substantially less valuable and more costly to process.

Enter the anatase resource emerging at UK-based Empire Metals' Pitfield project in Western Australia.

Given the demand for titanium shows no signs of fading, and Australia's low sovereign risk, the nation may be on the cusp of the third big titanium paradigm shift after ilmenite mining started in the 1950s and the discovery of the WIM-style deposits in Victoria 40 years ago.

Empire has largely flown under the radar with Pitfield in Australia, but it was one of the best-performing stocks on London's AIM last year. It has ambitions to drill out what managing director Shaun Bunn told MNN could be "the world's largest titanium discovery".

"This is a giant unicorn. This is not a fairy tale. This is real. This is an amazing discovery," Bunn said.

Pitfield is a "Mt Everest-style inverted deposit in a sedimentary system" that contains an exploration target for the Thomas and Cosgrove prospects of 26.4-32.2 billion tonnes grading 4.5-5.5% titanium.

The prospects represent 20% of the Pitfield system, but the exploration target equates to around one-third of the world's known resources of titanium today.

Included is an initial target, the weathered sandstone that covers the deposit from surface to 40m where there is a target of 4-4.9Bt at 4.8-5.9%.

Since drilling began 18 months ago, every hole has been mineralised from surface.

"It's a hydrothermal system. It's not an igneous rock or mineral sands, and I have to stress that. There are no contaminants because the host is sandstone. This is a very unique deposit," Bunn said.

Pitfield is dominated by anatase, which has been considered an uneconomic style of mineralisation because it's primarily been studied in Brazil, where it is bound up in phosphate discoveries.

But anatase and rutile are basically the same at a chemical level, Bunn explained.

"It's not a difficult orebody and not expensive to process using conventional gravity recovery and flotation acid digestion to bring out the titanium," Bunn, a metallurgist, said.

CTD….

It's a claim that has raised eyebrows among some, but this week, Empire reported production of a product assaying at 99.25% titanium using its conventional beneficiation, leaching and refining processes, making it ideal for pigments and other downstream uses.

A 70t bulk sample will be used to generate finished product samples for marketing purposes.

Metallurgically, the next step is to see if kaolin can be floated off from the associated clays, which would substantially reduce the waste stream and produce a by-product.

Bunn thinks Pitfield will find plenty of willing buyers, given the global market for titanium was worth around US$24 billion last year and is expected to reach $54 billion by 2034.

As Bunn says, there's no better place in the world to find a deposit like Pitfield than WA's Mid West region. It offers access to road and rail infrastructure, export facilities at Geraldton, and access to abundant gas and wind energy.

It's no surprise Empire is considering an ASX listing given market support for mining.

As evidence for that support, Empire is trading up 1350% since making its Pitfield discovery in 2023.

Titanium is classed as a critical mineral by governments around the globe for its use in technology, aerospace, medical, and industrial applications, given it can withstand extreme environments without compromising structural integrity.

Not surprisingly, supply is dominated by China, which last year produced 3.3 million tonnes, with Mozambique in second place today, producing 1.9Mt of ilmenite.

Australia is already the world's fourth-largest exporter of titanium minerals, shipping 200,000tpa of rutile and 400,000t of ilmenite.

Given the geopolitical environment and a reliance on low-quality ilmenite, there's plenty of support for new and simple supplies of titanium from stable jurisdictions.

And yes, titanium, first discovered in 1791, is named after the mythological Greek Titans for its exceptional strength-to-weight ratio.

Empire will be presenting at the MiningNews Select Australia 2025 conference on July 1-2 at Crown Perth, Western Australia.

The more PR the better, there’s a very distinct difference between how Empire was viewed by the market in 2024, to how it is now. The scientific data and results can’t be disputed anymore & the industry can’t ignore it.

ML