Member Info for MajorOak

Vattenfall were at the NEL hydrogen day yesterday and are a partner to NEL as are Shell.
https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/shell-mitsubishi-and-vattenfall-unveil-huge-green-hydrogen-plan-for-german-coal-plant/2-1-949630

Fantastic HYDROGEN news for NEL asa.
“By installing the first 500MW line, we will cut the cost approximately in half, and when we add additional lines and we optimise the design further and work on the technology, we should be able to cut the cost almost in half again,” he said.

“And on that journey, we will see that green renewable hydrogen is going to outcompete the fossil solutions.”

Løkke unveiled a new target for producing green hydrogen with a levelised cost of $1.50/kg by 2025, based on “a large-scale Nel [electrolyser] facility”.

2GW Electrolyser production = 320 Electrolysers PER DAY roughly speaking. Lower cost so cheaper to supply big bulk projects.
Expect a good run of new contracts.

75% Cost reduction to electrolyser production !
That is what I am talking about on scale up. NEL to initially open a 500MW factory in Q3 BUT 1GW then 2GW 24/7 production by just adding one production line to make 4 lines 24/7
https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/nel-to-slash-cost-of-electrolysers-by-75-with-green-hydrogen-at-same-price-as-fossil-h2-by-2025/2-1-949219

Dr. Andreas Rompel, Chairman of Jourdan, states, “The fact that companies such as Piedmont Lithium, who recently signed a supply agreement with Tesla who invested into Sayona Mining, which has properties located close to Jourdan’s, shows the importance of the Val d’Or region for lithium supply to the world’s largest EV companies. As part of the global initiative to focus on EVs and clean energy, Jourdan is strategically accelerating its work on its lithium project in Northern Quebec and has already initiated bulk sampling and will be seeking partners in the EV space going forward.”
Great companies in safe country in Canada with all the US and Canadian global powerhouses needing supply. Much less risk.

Read this. Africa imho is not where you should be looking.
I left a full post on here to my reasons but today read this and thought of your question.

Its literally "bulletproof" advice on China hacking the carp out of every companies computers !

You see what China did to solar in the early days, total cheap control.
You see the next mainstream power source of lithium batteries come and what does China do ? Take cheap and complete control in the early days.
Graphene and to a lesser degree graphite - CHINA WANT the tech NOW at cheap rates to TOTALLY CONTROL the global market.

That is my worry for European hydrogen. IVECO Ukm Factory in Germany being bid for by Chinese and many more takeover bids will come in for European tech.
Sad but true, the West is just too slow for taking global market share. Sad I wish we were much more brutal in innovation.

I do have investment experience in early graphene.
Bloody nightmare, basically it all comes down to protecting the IP and the technical advantage of not giving away the model of producing the required grade.
Ok. Grade of graphene / graphite size , quality call it what you want but every individual product has a probable tweak to strength required to each nut, bolt, surface, coating, span, intermixing with other composites.
It is a royal pain to be very honest.
I was talking 18 months ago with a UK CEO about the car industry. Living in Rolls Royce territory I hear so much and a company in Derby I heard were making car componants, so I asked him about a specific car part. He laughed.
The example he gave was batteries or cylinders for EV FCEV will be heavy so companies are already looking at no batteries or fuel cell. The theory is within 10-15 years the technology will see graphite used to print the whole car body. There will be NO copper or any wiring within the car.
Strips of graphene will make the electric connections throughout the car. The interface will be another spec of graphene, the chips to run the car will be high grade graphenes, there will be no plastic or any polyfabrics within the car. Where will the power come from and be saved I asked ? Within the solar roof and car body as a single battery itself !!! The whole car body will be made as one 3D made and printed.
Car body, battery to charge electric use, solarpanel, seats, lights , everything. We had capacitors, then supercapacitors, now going in to Ultra capacitors, so what amazing energy generation do you think they will have achieved in 10 more years when heat from the sun will warm the car body to create energy.
Graphene and again another point , companies often say they make graphene. They don't they make graphite - a HUGE difference !!!
I 150% expect "graphene" to become the filter for electrolysis FACT. Hydrogen in tandem with nuclear was scoffed at when I posted it in here and another forym BUT RR are already light years ahead with new mini nuclear reactors. What do you recon helps with the extreme heat ? What will help at nano level to get hydrogen from all types of pure to insustrially used water waste , "graphene" NOT graphite.

I highly recomend reading the history of Teflon. Look at its uses over the last 20 years and tell me "graphene" and graphite are not the replacement !

Did you know every single person on earth today has a fraction of Teflon in their body ? An amazing thought.

If you are a scientist invest in graphene / graphite.
If you cannot be bothered to read full scientific reports and specs of the variety of measurements I suggest avoid , unless yoy know a good CEO of a graphene graphite firm or a person in the specifics of making nano materials.

IP is a royal pain so making all your knowledge irrelevant anyway. China are hacking the whole world for this advantage. They WANT TOTAL CONTROL of specific graphenes, trust me, its literally "b

Anyone any idea why Linde is unable to break 2.20 and keeps going backwards ? The deal and news from ITM should surely have attacked 2.25 and a minor break through ? Weird share.

Toneman. Every day for the last 6 months I read god knows how many alerts covering the hydrogen sector, as you will too.
It strikes me that especially in Australia and US once Biden won back in Nov, the increase in speculation, start ups and the JV activity massively increases. Tyson and on the odd occasion SatPro have asked about opportunities within the hydrogen sector - both knowing exactly what we do but probably double checking where , what and who ?
Onething I remember Tyson suggesting is how thin do you go with investing without feeling you are missing out ?

Its had me thinking more and more as company after company bring out "the biggest electrolyser" this week Nel had 20MW in Spain, ITM declared the biggest in the world at 24MW, then the next day Thyssenkrup 88MW. Who is next ?

There are many companies that will 100% do extremely well , probably too many to be in one porfolio, so in my method I have learn't not to chase the unicorn, not to worry or admitt that I picked a stock that has risen raster or the modern term FOMO. If I can make 20-30% per year, not week or month but year, then I should be happy and will be wealthy enough in time and still have my sanity.

I know I have recently posted about lithium. I was heavily in to lithium 2-4 years ago and have now built up some truely great connections Australia, Canada and Central Europe.
I look back now in hindsight and realise I was 4 years too early and only now after boom and bust on lithium prices are the true companies now clear , who have the strength if budget and partners. I think this phase of the hydrogen bubble reminds me of the early days of lithium it all looks sound, but many have to scale up any possible production to get anywhere near being able to forfill the capacity required, very much like lithium, you can say you have all the assays you want , resource and planned cost, BUT you still have to build a blooming full scale mine ! I think some think its quick and easy, but it is not.
Piedmont and what I am now hearing in Australia and the relocation of head office to the US is glowing. It is now my main holding and from what I understand and have had mentioned. I sold Thyssenkrupp and some not all Hexagon profits and ITM profits to allow my lithium holding in Piedmont to be my biggest along with NEL.

I still have a cross section in my profolio including the 3 Chinese car makers listed on NYSE NIO, XPENG & LI AUTO.

Lithium with Standard Lithium brines with the huge advantage they have in 36 hours to produce Li2co rather than 12-18 months in the big lithium salt flats in South America which all rely upon extra cost exporting and good dry warm weather. Standard Lithium is a machine processing 24/7 day after day. Akin to when the Heroya Hydrogen electrolyser plant opens in Q3. These are disrupters in large markets.

Anyway, just a few thoughts. What ever happens the guys who take market share now are the ones I believe will retain the long term advant

Good point toneman.

NEL HYDROGEN asa viewed as undervalued by HSBC. I do keep banging the NEL drum but the tenticles and links I post to the vast variety of partners and electrolyser progress is not made up. Once Heroya fully automated factory opens up in Q3 and produces 160 electrolysers PER DAY , this current value will been looked back on as cheap.
Today Reuters / HSBC just happen to point it out.
Still wondering why I've been topping up in the last 10 trading days ?

"UK-based ITM Power, which manufactures the electrolysers needed to make green hydrogen, is trading at a massive seven times its 2030 sales, while rival Nel is relatively cheap at three times 2030 sales, according to HSBC's calculations"

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29P0LH?__twitter_impression=true

"UK-based ITM Power, which manufactures the electrolysers needed to make green hydrogen, is trading at a massive seven times its 2030 sales, while rival Nel is relatively cheap at three times 2030 sales, according to HSBC's calculations. "
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN29P0LH?__twitter_impression=true

Sharpeye. Had a look took me 10 mins and I would personally not invest. Many of my rules are broken with IRR.
The wording firstly in the lithium update this week , I have questions and not just 1.
99.9% Lithium Hydroxide grades produced in a lab ? Even if I saw the 99.9% Lith Hydrox it needs a pilot plant to prove the concept. The concept for creating lithium carbonate and then up to hydroxide battery grade is known and many who post seriously don't have a real clue about what it takes.

US$65 million capital cost ? Even for plain surface strip out that is very very low imho.

I know a gold mine owner who lives in Melbourne. He was the biggest private shareholder in EMH. We are good friends and I learn't a hell of a lot from him, EMH and how politics can kill a mine, greed normally, plant , grades and locations of plant can all make a difference.

3 years ago I held 6 lithium miners. I sold all on over promises and length of time and constant cash draw.

My main reason is I now only invest in a single specific mine. Easier to fully understand costs, get a feel for the owners / Bod , market activity ( supply chain, offtakes, cash raised from partners and where it is being spent ).
IRR not only have a very large lithium strike open ended , possibly 2, BUT also bauxite and gold.

It could very very easily become a very diluted money pit?

It could be the best ever mine, but I could provide details of 10 lithium mines , 8 of which are great but either Company are ran by idiots or in a dodgy country.

There is a lot and I mean a lot if detail missing in just this weeks rns on lithium, so I would not buy in personally.

Just be very very very careful mate. Seen a lot of BS before.

Even a take off deal does not mean anything until they have paid for and installed plant. One seriously great mine I do keep my eye on in Africa has it all, nice tight single mine with amazing grades. Drought hit and they ran out of water!
Now where does it tell you these things in an rns or on a forum ? Doubt everything, do very deep research in the Bod and watch totally what the other opps are doing. One bad day at thd gold mine could bring a perfectly good lithium share price down.

Just do hours of research before you jump in. Many of those posting are talking BS. Over excited.

That is where scale up is SO important. NEL looking well in to the future. I am sure that by 2031 there will be a new tech producing energy cheaper anyway, but the the next 5-10 it will be lithium & hydrogen.

New factory will make one hell of a difference to achieving mass scale up ! Initially 160 fully automated with electrolysers plates that get shipped directly to site to be built to specific contract use, rather than set build in the factory and shipping. It keeps the factory process extremely lean , with less messing about building in the factory there is a lot less to go wrong. Costs savings are greatly controlled at this stage. When they build the complete electrolyser on clients specific site, the issues there do not effect the production line at the factory. A great concept.
It keeps the factory churning out product day after day.
Initial 160 electrolysers stepping up to 320, then the new 4th production line once fitted will double production to approx 740 Electrolysers per day. Now that is scale up !
Will be very interesting to hear from the speakers today including Vattenfall and Iwatani from the US @@

"Next generation" Hydrogen technologies will be covered I guess with Proton Onsite , Wallingford, R&D with US Government being talked of I am sure.

This should be very very interesting as a previous 2020 podcast suggests.

US HYDROGEN Iwatani Corporation of America

Guest speaker

HYDROGEN Vattenfall/HYBRIT & NEL HYDROGEN Projects

Guest speaker

NEL HYDROGEN Taking electrolysis to GW-scale will be covered