RE: New US Asset Potential17 Dec 2020 16:48
and people here don;t really know what this means, and sold due to fear..of what? their own ghosts.
The new asset bought is based in Wyoming - US hasnt got national tax laws on oil, its decided at state level.
https://www.blm.gov/policy/ib-wy-2018-002
Wyoming average tax charged was around 13%:
Severance Taxes 1 6% on normal production
Ad Valorem Taxes 2 Statewide Mineral Tax District Average = 6.9
So looking at the medium term case 2022 is 5,000 bopd:
"Current production rate of 1,400 bbls/d (gross) rising to 5,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2022 and c.7,000 bbls/d (gross) in 2026 (2P reserve case, Ryder Scott Report)."
They also have an exploration upside to evaluate which could enhance these CPR production estimates: "...unitized exploration area -the Barron Flats Federal Unit (deep)."
Working with 5,000 bopd within two years, 100% owned at $50/b for sweet light crude and 13% tax rate assumed locally.
All the topside infrastructure is in place, lifting costs expected to be low, but assume a conservative $20/b in this high level calculation.
Thats $47m per annum net tax and costs booked profits.
Assuming a PE ratio of 17
Approx $400m market cap without Nigeria asset even considered.
SP potential from 5000 bopd production in 2022 with these assumptions = 8p a share scale
Safe jurisdiction with the rule of law adds value aswell.
The more you look at this deal the better it gets.