The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Mudeye
Purely from memory taken from the PEA - the AISC during production was circa $810.
All the economics were based on $1,300. PoG as we know is riding considerably higher.
A net margin post tax of $300 looks extremely conservative.
1m times $300 = $300m.
Given the circumstances, am not sure how they could ever structure a JV other than what you mention 'Nice'.
They have stated on various occasions over past 4-5 years that they'd be open to consider a JV (& other).
Does beg the question why it ain't happened? It's not the most complicated deal to negotiate/conclude.
If a JV were to be considered it'd surely be with a miner prepared to take it straight to mine construction/production with concurrent further exploration in the immediate area?
Prickett knows 'jack' about mining. Humphries is now 80. Not much of a 'joint' team for anyone to work alongside?
What happens to LND's nickel, the iron ore etc if a JV on BAM is concluded?
My back of a fag packet calc has BAM as a solo project could generate even at current 1m oz resource figures a nett lifetime profit of a minimum of circa $300 million. That's after construction expenditure of the mine & ongoing working capital costs.
That basic calc alone values the Company many multiples in excess of current market value.
These guys (Humphries & Prickett) are 'well in' with the likes of Barrick who helped bail them out the sh*t elsewhere a few years back. Barrick and other Premier League miners are already in the general area. If a JV was what they were after I'm sure something would have materialised by now.
A JV would be it's very nature be a dilution by giving away a % of the Company. So, I don't follow your logic. Yes, it would mean no dilution by way of any further Placements. But there would initially be probably the mother of all dilutions with a JV (depending upon the terms & conditions of course).
Why would they need a JV partner JUST to dig more holes in the ground?? LND probably could continue to do that themselves. They've had endless years of practice.
The resource (some of it near surface) is surely at the stage to justify mine construction? That's what the economic assessments and technical reports suggest. Obviously for a Premier League miner to make a bid they would be more interested in being convinced that the potential is there for BAM to become a multi-million ozs mine. That's what I thought the current programme was primarily about?
If there was genuine dual interest for a JV proposal............. surely that would have surfaced a while back? Probably pre or post the PEA?
If it's going to cost just shy of £100 million investment to take this to construct mine & post production stage WHY on earth would anyone want to plough such a HUGE sum to only get a JV out of it???????
LND themselves are surely at the end of the line soon to hit the buffers with regards to fundraising after 15+years???
I've been in this since day one on AIM (not TSX). For me, Humphries & Prickett have made loads of errors of judgement over the past 2 decades for ord shareholders. In fact they have decimated the value of this stock. Launched at circa 7p then went to 21p with Humphries making his one & only purchase on the open market at 16.5p amid endless ramping & hype from countless posters on various BBs. All appear looooong gone now.
I hold a fair chunk of these now, and am fairly positive about this stock as I see the only attractive exit strategy for Humphries & Prickett (given their advanced ages) is an outright sale of at least BAM. If they are looking for a hobby in their 80s then they could concentrate on the huge nickel deposit, the massive iron ore project set up under a different Co, not to forget lithium.
I've never been one for total positivism. I'd far rather tinge it with realism & be objective - and constructive criticism shouldn't offend anyone. Past performance is a reasonable yardstick to at least take into account.
How many "good" drill results have been reported over the years from LND and its ugly big brother PGD? Dozens & dozens is the answer.
How many times have such a "good" drill resulted in a share price increase (never mind a hike)? I can't recall one. EVER.
If this returns me 5p then I'll be relatively pleased. At 10p I'll be doing cartwheels. Although I'd feel a tad sorry for those who invested within 17-20p range.
Brancote obscene type valuations/ comparisons are pie-in-the-sky never to be repeated.
The biggest disappointment for me will be a JV. As that would likely mean another few years before any meaningful share price value materialises. And Prickett & Humphries will no doubt negotiate an attractive side-deal for themselves as part of any JV agreement.
Yeah Brancote......... assets written off some years later by purchaser as having nil value. Bit of a corporate con-job at a time when AIM was in its infancy and the dot.com bubble and 'show me the money' TV hype made for obscene valuations.
Let's hope LND has a more satisfactory ending.
down at Madame Una's massage parlour tonight.
Had a wee 100k top-up today. Doesn't show as a Buy on any platform.
Have always had this feeling this stock is going to be suspended from trading pending outcome of an agreed deal in principle. They never do anything for the financial benefit of the p.i. All those Options they recently granted themselves kinda confirms my theory.
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hl83
If it's any help, I can tell you that 'thesharecentre' who fairly recently took over all Barclays certificated share dealing told me (in part) about the new Hunt shares "To be able to trade the shares they’d need to be lodged with us as an electronic holding".
So, I assume from that you could quite easily transfer your own electronic holding to them. I've always found them pretty reliable.
Hope that is of some help. No advice intended.
Hi hl83
I suspect my situation is different to yours as I hold physical certificated shares. And IF I believe what have been told then I will be issued with new certificates from the new entity when this transaction between Hunt & Patagonia is complete. Once received I don't think I will have any difficulty trading them. I'm sitting on such a huge paper loss that I am of a mind to hold for a while yet. Unless something quite unexpected happens. Not holding my breath for that!!!
Well, it's either after only 4 weeks since last fundraiser of being a case of poor budget/project management not being professional getting what funds were needed right............. OR it could be a sign of confidence that this is the last cash call and we really are close to the end game after this drilling/exploration work is completed