Member Info for Madpunter

Timster- IMHO the second post down in the link answers your question.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=20

About 4.5p for every $1bn.

Copied from my post on Friday :-
19.1 MMbbls x $60/bbl = $1.146tn. Typical takeovers can be as high as 5% to 10% for P1 reserves as opposed to 1 % to 3% for P2 reserves (if my memory is correct). This equates to $57.3bn - $114.6bn, although as FRR has very little actual production, 5% may be the top parameter. Furthermore, BP may only want the gas or a percentage of Block 12. Lots of possibilities, but certainly a box worth fighting over!

Previously the O + G was listed as what was in place and recoverable, plus internal estimates of 18 billion barrels of oil and 202 TCF of gas. The extract below shows what had been verified by a CPR :-

RESOURCES
Oil – 10,225 MMbbl (OOIP) of which 1,673 MMbbl is recoverable; (from the link below)
Natural Gas – 12.9 TCF (OGIP) of which 9 TCF is recoverable
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/

I've copied part of my post from Thursday 1st August below on my interpretation of 14 billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas reserves :-

The latest press release shows that the reserves are 30TCF = 5.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (170 million barrels = 1TCF). Therefore, FRR has over 19.1 billion barrels of oil reserves. IMHO, with the drilling of T39 and possible drilling of Niko (B-2-0 referred to this as being drilled to zone 24), plus BP's computer modelling, I would assume this is 1P and PUD. The recoverable rates for Block 12 gas were around 70% of the CPR figures, which implies 140 TCF recoverable for the 202 TCF in place. Therefore, this implies the 30 TCF is P1 with the additional reserves classed as P2 and P3.
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/taribani/
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/mtsarekhevi/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

The table in the link below adds some perspective, as China has 25.9 billion barrels of oil and Qatar 25.2 billion barrels of oil, compared with 19.1+ billion barrels of oil in Block 12.
https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873

The above post can be found in the Frontera Archive.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=20

Star - Go to Nov 2018 and click on CSR and Zero harm in 2019 will be on the page. Proof it updates or were FRR able to see into the future? QED.

Star - It updates, which is why the SEDA link in the post from 23rd October 2018 now shows page not found error 404, even when going back to Nov 2018 on your link.

Oil Auctions
After consultation with Mole, I have estimated the production for FRR in 2017 at 110bopd (it was double that in the link below).Using the 110bopd gives 5.2kt for 2017, which when added to the 2 trainloads of 7kt = 19.2kt, which is more than was produced in Georgia for that year (see statistika link). Therefore, the auctioned oil probably includes oil from FRR, with the increased volume from the productivity testingof T39.
https://fronteraresources.com/frontera-announces-operations-update-entry-seda-backed-loan-agreement-support-ongoing-work-programs/
The link for the conversion of barrels to tonnes is below :-
https://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/MethodologyReferences/ConversionTables/Images/CCSS1015_Energy_Industry_Conversions_LRG.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1070.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1185.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1226.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1260.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1370.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1379.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/uploads/other/1/1382.pdf
http://www.gogc.ge/en/statistika

Do you have a screen shot of the website in January with a date? If you are just clicking on an old link from January, it will just update.

I think this bit is new !

SIGNIFICANTLY DE-RISKED ASSET WITH TRANSFORMATIONAL RESERVES

https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/

Arsenal - Previously the O + G was listed as what was in place and recoverable, plus internal estimates of 18 billion barrels of oil and 202 TCF of gas. The extract below shows what had been verified by a CPR :-

RESOURCES
Oil – 10,225 MMbbl (OOIP) of which 1,673 MMbbl is recoverable; (from the link below)
Natural Gas – 12.9 TCF (OGIP) of which 9 TCF is recoverable
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/

I've copied part of my post from Thursday 1st August below on my interpretation of 14 billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas reserves :-

The latest press release shows that the reserves are 30TCF = 5.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (170 million barrels = 1TCF). Therefore, FRR has over 19.1 billion barrels of oil reserves. IMHO, with the drilling of T39 and possible drilling of Niko (B-2-0 referred to this as being drilled to zone 24), plus BP's computer modelling, I would assume this is 1P and PUD. The recoverable rates for Block 12 gas were around 70% of the CPR figures, which implies 140 TCF recoverable for the 202 TCF in place. Therefore, this implies the 30 TCF is P1 with the additional reserves classed as P2 and P3.
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/taribani/
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/mtsarekhevi/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

The table in the link below adds some perspective, as China has 25.9 billion barrels of oil and Qatar 25.2 billion barrels of oil, compared with 19.1+ billion barrels of oil in Block 12.
https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873

The above post can be found in the Frontera Archive.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=20

As far as we know only the 5% RA is left in FRCC, which will revert to the GG. However, under FRCC is the subsidiary FRGC and the operating company is below that, which I assume is FEGL. IMHO one or both of the subsidiaries will have been set up with the purpose of complying with Georgian Law, and thus will possibly take longer to liquidate. IMHO the subsidiaries are key to SN and ZM fulfilling their obligations under the DoS, possibly after a deal is completed. This may explain why there's no supporting evidence for the DoS.

Time constraints on oil revenue as described previously and priority of payments. If discovery wasn't possible in the Caymen's, then priority would be to fund the case in California, stalling payment for the Caymen's. This stalling may also have resulted in speeding up the liquidation of FRCC, which may be instrumental in the granting of the license transfer. If a deal with the super majors is completed before the liquidation the 5% RA becomes a future dividend for FRR. If a deal with the super majors is after the liquidation process for FRCC passes a point of no return, then the 5% RA reverts back to the GG.

StarRage - FRR may not be short of cash, just maybe time constraints. As the oil is sold via the trainload, it requires filling before selling, followed by a 45 day wait for payment, therefore they may be months between each oil revenue payment. IMHO, the liquidation of FRCC, now underway results in the GG the 5% RA reverting back to the GG, increasing their share under the PSA to 53.45%. IMHO this was what the stalling of the license transfer was about and once this process is past the point of no return, a deal with the super majors will swiftly follow.

Bezzy - The following extract from the link below, 8 (b) P4/7, implies that the JOL's can only control FRCC and any subsidiaries,JV's, investments, associated companies, businesses or other entities in which the company, FRCC, HOLDS AN INTEREST (OR SUCH SHARES OF SUBSIDIARIES AND/OR ASSOCIATED COMPANIES AS ARE OWNED DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY BY THE COMPANY, FRCC). IMHO FRCC doesn't hold any interest in any subsidiaries; or shares; or own directly or indirectly any associated companies. As far as we know FRCC only owns a 5% RA and is a limited company. I'm not a lawyer, but I can't see how the JOL's can touch any other company linked to SN and ZM, if FRCC has no shares or interest. Add to that the point made by regdik about Block 12 being governed by Georgian Law and in a Georgian company. IMHO the JOL's can only liquidate the 5% RA, which will revert to the GG.

take control of such of the direct and/or indirect subsidiaries C;Subsidiaries") of the Company, and/or joint ventures, investment, associated companies, business or other entities (together, the "Associated Companies") in which the Company holds an interest (or such shares of such Subsidiaries and/or Associated Companies as are owned directly or indirectly by the Company), in each case wherever located (together, the "Group"), as the JOLs shall think fit

https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ak7gVwQ3mttllmY5PTMN_l5tdU3j

IMHO the extract below, 12. p4/5, from the link below, resulted in the Supervision Order, and not a request by any of the LN holders, namely SH/O, SN and ZM. Thinking logically SN and ZM would be negating their DOS, leaving them liable for a fine and or imprisonment. Whereas, SH/O IMHO knows that there's nothing to be gained from this process, otherwise the petition for the Supervision Order would have been requested sooner.

The Plaintiff only learned of the voluntary liquidation of FRCC by its receipt of a standal'd request for information from its voluntary liquidators. As a result, further discussions took place :in early June 2019, during which it was reiterated that the Defendants had promised payment since December 2018, and that the Defendants had assured the Plaintiff on weekly calls - since early April 2019-that fortnightly payments of US$50,000 · would start "imminently", and that refinancing which would enable the Plaintiff to be paid in full was progressing well.

https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ak7gVwQ3mttllmVNZ_QOn6o6aIf5

Arsenal - IMHO if BP are negotiating a deal with FRR, then their independent assessment of the reserves is equivalent to a CPR.

Tsbs - 19.1 MMbbls x $60/bbl = $1.146tn. Typical takeovers can be as high as 5% to 10% for P1 reserves as opposed to 1 % to 3% for P2 reserves (if my memory is correct). This equates to $57.3bn - $114.6bn, although as FRR has very little actual production, 5% may be the top parameter. Furthermore, BP may only want the gas or a percentage of Block 12. Lots of possibilities, but certainly a box worth fighting over!

As the 30 day appeal limit took us to the 18th july, IMHO FRR wouldn't issue a press release on the 29th listing 14 billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas if the asset transfer hadn't been approved.

Bezzy - The article with the extra '0' also had billions instead of trillions and metres instead of feet :-
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/604744.html

The previous article had 30 trillion cubic metres :-
https://mind.ua/news/20200330-frontera-resources-hoche-oskarzhiti-rezultati-konkursu-na-rozrobku-dilyanki-delfin

The latest press release shows that the reserves are 30TCF = 5.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent (170 million barrels = 1TCF). Therefore, FRR has over 19.1 billion barrels of oil reserves. IMHO, with the drilling of T39 and possible drilling of Niko (B-2-0 referred to this as being drilled to zone 24), plus BP's computer modelling, I would assume this is 1P and PUD. The recoverable rates for Block 12 gas were around 70% of the CPR figures, which implies 140 TCF recoverable for the 202 TCF in place. Therefore, this implies the 30 TCF is P1 with the additional reserves classed as P2 and P3.
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/taribani/
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/mtsarekhevi/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves

The table in the link below adds some perspective, as China has 25.9 billion barrels of oil and Qatar 25.2 billion barrels of oil, compared with 19.1+ billion barrels of oil in Block 12.
https://www.thebalance.com/oil-reserves-definition-categories-world-s-largest-3305873

Use the link below for the Frontera Archive, scroll down to the date you went away and then read to the bottom and the next three pages :-

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=17

I no longer think that the arbitration was about the sunk costs, just the GG after a bigger piece of the pie. IMHO the sunk costs won't be recoverable, as the whole of Block 12 will be sold to the super majors.

StarRage - The Achilles heel in my theory doesn't, it turns into a Trojan Horse, or were you referring to my spelling mistake? In case it was the former I've copied my post from the 9th May below :-
The arbitration request by the GG that was reported by ShareP....'s (fill in the blanks as you see fit), started what appeared to be an orchestrated shorting attack on FRR. The leak is assumed to have come from SH/O, as the modus operandi of SH/O is to target distressed companies and restrict their funding capabilities. The subsequent naked shorting by YA and shorting by TW et al greatly restricted the avenues for funding. Thus, SH/O possibly saw the arbitration as FRR's Achilles Heel. Move on year and IMHO the Achilles heal has turned into a Trojan Horse. SH/O may have assumed that due to the following two points, the assets were unlikely to be moved :-
1) The request for arbitration by the GG.
2) The fact that if Block 12 was moved from FRCC without the approval of the GG it reverted to the GG.
IMHO due to the previous points and a window of opportunity between the two court cases, then SH/O tried to take control of the assets, by resigning and trying to liquidate FRCC. IMHO the arbitration appears to have been a lever in the negotiating of the sunk costs between FRR and the GG, which are about $400m. These costs are recoverable from production under the PSA, prior to the 51% (GG share) and 49%(FRR share) split in production. The price of the 1% in ground value of Block 12 (26.7kMMbbls x $60/b = $16bn) halved for FRR's share = $8bn. Therefore, the 5% royalty equates to $400m of the $8bn, the same amount as the sunk costs. Thus the arbitration request may have allowed the deal with the GG, which removed Block 12 from the clutches of SH/O's cronies. At the same time this facilitated his removal from the board and his veto of a possible loan with GC. Therefore, the arbitration turned from being an Achilles Heel into a Trojan Horse. All conjecture, but the theory fits.