Member Info for Madpunter

Ziggy - As I stated when it was listed as Summons issued/Not issued, SN and ZM were likely still in the Ukraine or possibly in Georgia after the Ukraine. Therefore, the Summons may not yet be issued. Also, if they are tying up loose ends prior to signing a deal with the super majors and the GG, I would assume that it would be signed in Georgia.

According to " Burilki ", representatives of the American Frontera Resources businessmen Steve Nikandros and Zaza Mamulaishvili came to Kiev. (copied from the post on the 29th July from the link below).

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=19

https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/15958497/outrider-master-fund-lp-v-nicandros/?filed_after=&filed_before=&entry_gte=&entry_lte=&order_by=desc

Chris572 - There's so much going for FRR. Therefore, it's easy to miss something as significant as the pipelines running through and near to Block 12. Thanks for highlighting my omission.

Zib - How do you know StarRage was paid £8m by Cairn?

No chance IMHO. Comparing 88E with FRR :-
1) Any production? No.
2) A CPR? I don't think so, but can't be bothered to delve deeper.
3) Any reserves (19.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, plus internal estimates of 18 billion barrels of oil in place and 202 TCF of gas)? No, just an estimate of over 1bn barrels of oil in place (88E's share).
4) Cheap drilling costs of less than $12/bbl? No, Alaska is a hostile environment with frozen subsoil for most of the year and lots of environmental objections to the oil industry.
5) High quality oil (41.5 API with low sulphur)? No, medium grade 32.1 API and 0.96% Sulphur (https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/crude-oils/crude-trading/alaska-north-slope).

Bernadotte - It's like comparing chalk and cheese.

wwguk - I understand that and I'm just highlighting the links between the bond markets, Target2 and SXX. As the II's are expecting a crash, there is flight towards Gold and less risky investment, hence the trading price return you mention for some negative interest bonds. Therefore, shorter term bonds and with more risk, like those for SXX will require a much higher yield than normal to become successful.

Some 10 year and 30 year government bonds are now paying negative interest. In other words you lose money in return for the safety. However, in Italy the bonds are being sold, due to the Sovereign-Bank Doom Loop. Italian banks dumped 40 billion euros of Italian Sovereign Bonds in the last 3 months of 2017 (reported by Jefferies), causing a run on the bonds by foreign investors in 2018. The Italian banks then bought back some of the bonds, as if the bonds fall in value, it affects the banks and if the banks run out of money the government must bail them out. The only solution is for the ECB to buy the Italian Government Bonds, but it has already broken the rules by buying too much (How the Euro Dies. Nickolai Hubble).
Italy also has a problem due to about 300 billion Euros of bad debt (see reuter's link) and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (world's oldest bank) had to be bailed out with £20bn. IMHO when coupled with a lack of growth through Target2, this will eventually lead to Italy crashing out of the Euro, as the market for Sovereign-Bank Bonds is not strong enough for a bail out.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-banks-italy-monte-dei-paschi/monte-dei-paschi-reports-3-1-billion-euro-loss-as-state-steps-in-idUSKBN1AR214
Therefore, with a trade war between the US and China reducing World forecasts for growth and the possibility for a crash in the Euro, investors are looking towards gold and less risky bonds. These factors will impact on the bond sale for SXX. Perhaps whoever got my earlier post removed about Target2 will now look at the links between Target2, the bond market and Stage2 finance.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/general/eu-is-a-pack-of-cards-waiting-to-collapse-due-to-target2-ACEA28A0-3310-4306-AFFD-F37D0D5490CB.html?page=2#21436631

shakey - The crossing of thresholds is strictly adhered to IMHO. I think you are confusing nominee accounts with II's. The main ownership for funds and institutions is 5.6%; SDX SPV owns 19.48%; Nikolaos D Monoyios owns 4.37%; Valerie A. Brackett owns 3.55%; and three directors own 2.138%. IMHO the rest are nominee accounts, where individual shareholders have their share certificates held electronically by their brokers. The shareholders listed account for 35.138%, leaving a free float of 64.862%. However, Ingalls and Snyder which owns 18.34% is the type of broker who that caters for rich clients with multi-generational wealth planning. Therefore, the shares they hold are likely to be long term and hence won't contribute to the free float, which effectively decreases it to 46.522%. HL and II are both brokers with nominee accounts, City Financial is in administration and the other two I'm not accessing as the websites aren't vetted by by security. Therefore, the effective free float is still very small at around 46.5%.

https://www.ingalls.net/capabilities/wealth-planning

I doubt that the $5.6bn is the only money BP has and IMHO any deal will probably be a mixture of cash and shares. When no acquisitions are on the immediate horizon, BP has been buying back shares, rather than leave the money in the bank. They gain the dividend they would have to pay out , which is generally better than most bank's interest rates. Plus it's helped keep the share price rising over the last five years.

Plenty of posters have moaned about FRR taking too long to strike oil and gas in sufficient quantities, despite the problems they have faced (invasion, hostile takeover attempts, arbitration, court cases, fall in the POO and difficult geology). Take a look at the timelines with BP in Alaska in the extract from the link below :-

BP began working in Alaska in 1959, drilling the confirmation well for the Prudhoe Bay oilfield in 1968 and in the mid-1970s helped build the 800-mile Trans Alaska Pipeline. BP began producing oil from Prudhoe Bay in 1977. The giant oilfield - the most prolific in US history - has to date produced over 13 billion barrels of oil and is estimated to have the potential to produce more than one billion further barrels.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BP./bp-plc-bp-to-sell-alaska-business-to-hilcorp--bjx1oyjs9id9rl9.html

Tsbs - You asked if I thought that FRR are really in negotiations with three majors? IMHO, yes they are in negotiations. We know that BH have been involved with FRR from the start and have signed a MOU. We know that BP have signed a NDA (from the court papers) and BP are involved in Azerbaijan which is the same geology. Exxon has been mentioned in the court papers as not interested, but has provided oversight for 6 years. Then why have Exxon provided oversight for 6 years? Why have Exxon bought a 2.5% stake in the BTC pipeline? If they thought that Block 12 wasn't a good prospect, why would they waste their time giving oversight? If Block 12 was a good prospect, why would Exxon want to help if they weren't interested, when the asset could end up with competitor's?
Then add the following facts :-
1) Internal estimates of 18 billion barrels of oil and 202 TCF of gas, and now reserves of 14 billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas .
2) Plenty of pipelines through or near Block 12 and a ready market on the doorstep.
3) Some of the cheapest costs in the world of less than $12/bbl.
4) Some of the best sweet crude in the world at 41.5 API.

Gipps - The GG have 51% under the PSA. FRR have 100% of Block 12, therefore any sale of Block 12 will give FRR 100% of the money and the GG will have to wait until BP, Exxon and BH (if my assumption of a buyout by all three is correct) start producing. If Block 12 is sold, the sunk costs will not be refunded and the GG will get 51% of production straight away, which is like a taxation percentage agreed years in advance. In other words the GG will not get the lump sum that you have stated as possible.

Gipps - Looking at the top ten oil acquisitions reminds me why FRR has to keep schtum. Chevron was buying Anardarko for $50bn and then Occidental came in with a bigger offer of $57bn. Great for Anardarko, but extra time to complete the deal. Remember the clock is ticking on payments and licensing requirements for FRR. Also interesting is the proven reserves of 1.473 billion BOE for Anardarko, which means that FRR has THIRTEEN TIMES AS MUCH (19.1bnBOE/1.473bnBOE = 12.96). Anardarko was producing a devil of a lot of oil per day (666k BOE/D).

https://www.spe.org/en/jpt/jpt-article-detail/?art=5349
https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/mergers-and-acquisitions-oil-gas-industry/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anadarko_Petroleum

Posted by TOT on ii :-

Well I just noticed the discussion on lse board tonight and thought I’d investigate. One thing which stood out for me was that in the HSE section there’s this page which contains a preview of their HSE report for 2019:https://fronteraresources.com/csr/ with the headline of ‘Zero Harm in 2019’. This does seem to suggest that operations have continued since the stock was suspended last December so I thought I’d google to see if I could find a copy of the actual document.

That search produced this page:https://fronteraresources.com/hse/ 3 which as you will see requires a password to enter. So it seems to me that the company is in the course of updating the website as we speak and there are certain areas they don’t want to be seen at the moment. Now why would they ddo that if the company is a dead duck as the guys on Advfn keep telling us?

Tin helmet removed for now ready for the big reveal.
Tot

RogerA - Look back at the posts. There is no stating 'a deal is done', only 'assuming a deal has been agreed'. No deal is done until the signatures are on the dotted line and complex deals can fail in the final moments, so what anyone thinks is happening may still not happen. I'm confident that a deal will be done, but that doesn't mean that it's a certainty.
Leadfinger - Look back at Aurora1's posts as well as mine. You need to reduce the possible amount of £8 per share to account for CAPEX and the fact that the Permian acquisition was already producing 190k bbls/d. That production would give an instant return of $9.5m/d (revenue, not profit) from the moment BP signed. A not insignificant sum, which equates to $3.4bn/year (@$50/bbl). Without a breakdown of costs it is impossible to work out how much of the 'well under $50/bbl costs have already been met with drilling, fracking and connecting to pipelines by BHP. Therefore, I would be surprised if we get even half your figure.

theprodigy - That is why I have always thought it would be a consortium. In the edited podcast Zaza stated three majors; the court papers showed Exxon oversight for the last 5 years (6 years now); BH have been in from the start and have signed a MOU; and the court papers also state that BP have signed a NDA. As explained previously, a large deal with a number of participants will take a long time and require an absence of news. Throw in a handful of court cases and the silence is imperative.

Gipps - I don't know about me losing you, I think it's the other way around. Your 22:06 post stated 'Full TO for me if the oil and associated gas is flowing well . Why would a Super Major not want the lot.' Then your 23:04 post stated 'I had BP for the gas in Block 12 , the oil who knows possibly a JV there initially with an unknown party at present and EXXON backing the Dolphin tenure .' As for recovering the sunk costs, if the price is right for a buyout of Block 12, they may be a sweetener for the GG. IMHO a CPR isn't required as the super majors will have been verifying Block 12, hence the recent press statement showing 14+ billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas reserves (19.1 + billion barrels of oil equivalent).
Aurora - That deal was for 4.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent resources @ well below $50/bbl for $10.5bn.
FRR has more than FOUR TIMES as much oil equivalent @ less than $12/bbl costs. Current oil prices are $56.01/bbl for WTI and $60/bbl for FRR's oil (sells at a premium to Brent which is currently $59.67/bbl). Therefore, there's EIGHT TIMES as much profit selling the oil from Block 12 and FOUR TIMES as much of the stuff (FRR - $60/bbl -$12/bbl = $48/bbl; BP's Permian, $56/bbl - $50/bbl = $6/bbl).

Sorry, I missed the last line :-

Note the use of the word ‘again’ in the penultimate line :grin::rofl::grin:

Posted bt TOT on ii :-

I see that all posts by Brookemia and the replies have been pulled by ii, and the silly billy subsequently hanged himself on Advfn when he put up this post:

-----Original Message-----
brookemia19 Aug '19 - 15:43 - 30292 of 30302
0 0 0
Good Afternoon Mr Hall,

Thank you for your email.

I do apologise for the delay in the response.

I have deleted the post and any replies to the post, I have also suspended and silenced the account forever.

If you wish to gain access to this research/discussion account again please let me know.

If there is anything else I can do for you please don’t hesitate to ask.

Kind Regards,

Paige | Operations
T: 0345 607 6001 "

Gipps - IMHO FRR will sell Block 12, but not a FRR. IMHO as the super majors are still involved with Russia, they will will want to distance themselves from Ukraine and Moldova at present. Also, the value of FRR's assets in those countries will be very low until a CPR is undertaken, therefore it wouldn't be in FRR's interests.

RogerA - Assuming a deal has been agreed by FRR and the super majors doesn't mean it has been signed yet. If it is with BP, Exxon and BH (more time for more interested parties) it will take time for the lawyers and accountants to go over the paperwork before signing. Also, I would assume if such a deal is in place, that it will be a mixture of cash and shares in those companies. This type of deal will require the share price for the deal based upon a weighted average (the POO as well as trading will effect the share price) for a number of days prior to the deal (similar to the conversion price deal with YA for the preference shares). Therefore, if the paperwork was to be signed say at the end of August, there may be a weighted average share price used for the whole month. Prior to this sequence of events the majors may have agreed a value for Block 12, but were still negotiating the percentages of ownership. Therefore, FRR and the super majors may have been in a position of knowing about the deal long before any signatures are put to paper.