Member Info for Madpunter

Chris - It's on page 7 if my memory is correct.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html

Page 5 (see link below) of the Frontera Archive 10th post shows 312bopd of light crude produced in 2018 without T39, plus 75bopd heavy crude. Page 3 (see the link below)first post of the Frontera Archive shows 4 train loads auctioned in 2018 = 23,500t = 181,185bbls light crude and 27,375bbls heavy crude. Total 208,560bbls, which means that 291,440bbls must come from T39 in 2018 if Zaza's statement of 500,000bbls of production is correct. Therefore, with a flow rate of 1500bopd for T39 there would be another 4 trains (9,000t )filled after the 22nd October 9,000t trainload, but with a 45 day wait for payment after auction, plus xmas, they wouldn't be paid until 2019. Also, this flow rate would give a total of (1500 + 312 + 75)bopd = 1887bopd, up to two thousand bopd referred to by Zaza.
Revenue for 2018 would then be (181,185bbls x $65/bbl = $11.777m) + (27,375bbls x $40/bbl = $1.095m) + ($630k in the bank) = $13.5m in Total .
Page 9 (see the link below) 12th post of the Frontera Archive estimates $12m operating costs for 2018 based upon $6m for H1, but without lawyer's fees and payments for YA.

Therefore, $13.5m -$12m = $1.5m profit for 2018 less the lawyer's fees and payments to YA, which looks pretty close to the actual $1.2m referred to by Zaza.

The 4 trainloads of 9,000t not paid for in 2018 will equate to 277,560bbls x $60/bbl (the price of oil is lower this year) = $16.6536m. Add 256 days x 1812bopd light crude = 453,872bbls x $60/bbl = $27.832m. Add 256 days x 75bopd = 19200bbls x $40/bbl = $0.768m = $45.2536m revenue so far this year + $1.2m profit from 2018 = $46.4536m. Assuming operating costs (not including lawyer's fees and YA payments) of $12m = $34.4536m. IMHO FRR will easily have enough to cover the lawyer's fees, YA payments and the DoS within the 12 month period. In fact FRR may be close to paying SH/O, which might explain the meeting with only SH/O's lawyer's present in the Caymen's.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=3

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=5

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=9

Earsbern - We'll just have to wait for the court paper's. I'm not worrying about the finances and IMHO all the court cases bar the FRR v SH/O in California will soon be over.

Page 5 (see link below) of the Frontera Archive 10th post shows 312bopd of light crude produced in 2018 without T39, plus 75bopd heavy crude. Page 3 (see the link below)first post of the Frontera Archive shows 4 train loads auctioned in 2018 = 23,500t = 181,185bbls light crude and 27,375bbls heavy crude. Total 208,560bbls, which means that 291,440bbls must come from T39 in 2018 if Zaza's statement of 500,000bbls of production is correct. Therefore, with a flow rate of 1500bopd for T39 there would be another 4 trains (9,000t )filled after the 22nd October 9,000t trainload, but with a 45 day wait for payment after auction, plus xmas, they wouldn't be paid until 2019. Also, this flow rate would give a total of (1500 + 312 + 75)bopd = 1887bopd, up to two thousand bopd referred to by Zaza.
Revenue for 2018 would then be (181,185bbls x $65/bbl = $11.777m) + (27,375bbls x $40/bbl = $1.095m) + ($630k in the bank) = $13.5m in Total .
Page 9 (see the link below) 12th post of the Frontera Archive estimates $12m operating costs for 2018 based upon $6m for H1, but without lawyer's fees and payments for YA.

Therefore, $13.5m -$12m = $1.5m profit for 2018 less the lawyer's fees and payments to YA, which looks pretty close to the actual $1.2m referred to by Zaza.

The 4 trainloads of 9,000t not paid for in 2018 will equate to 277,560bbls x $60/bbl (the price of oil is lower this year) = $16.6536m. Add 256 days x 1812bopd light crude = 453,872bbls x $60/bbl = $27.832m. Add 256 days x 75bopd = 19200bbls x $40/bbl = $0.768m = $45.2536m revenue so far this year + $1.2m profit from 2018 = $46.4536m. Assuming operating costs (not including lawyer's fees and YA payments) of $12m = $34.4536m. IMHO FRR will easily have enough to cover the lawyer's fees, YA payments and the DoS within the 12 month period. In fact FRR may be close to paying SH/O, which might explain the meeting with only FRR's lawyer's present in the Caymen's.

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=3

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=5

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=9

Gold at the end (edge) of the rainbow. RR will be pleased. Is the angelic looking lady riding the rainbow by any chance?

Shows 15 posts, yet there are only 7 visible?

Part 2

Posted by bugsy-b @ 20:03 :-

FRONTERA IS SUING GEORGIA
"29.AUGUST .2019 21:37 ECONOMIC
FRONTERA IS SUING GEORGIA AND SEEKING $ 3.5 BILLION IN COMPENSATION

https://www.bm.ge/ka/article/frontera-saqartvelos-uchivis-da-kompensaciis-saxit-35-miliards-itxovs/39074

Posted by Sycric @ 22:55 :-

Any suing of countries normally is on this. Cannot see if so seems like fake news.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/en/Pages/cases/AdvancedSearch.aspx

The two posts copied above were posted on the 29th August and copied from the second and fifth posts down of the link below :-
https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=22

IMHO the timing of the 'old news' posted in the link by bugsy-b and the fact that there's no listing in the link posted by Sycric points to someone trying to influence the case in the Ukraine.

My post from the 9th May (copied below) speculated about a 'Trojan Horse' plan involving Block 12, the GG and SH/O, but where did FRR get this idea from assuming that I'm correct. The court paper's show that SN's declaration refers to a Trojan Horse plot by SH/O using OML and MND (see extract below).

This 17 information was especially crucial, in light of FRC's past experience with OML, 18 and its fraudulent attempt to present MND as a "Trojan horse" investor to obtain 19 FRC' s trade secrets and confidential information in aid of a hostile takeover bid (copied from the fourth post of P11 of the Frontera Archive posted on the 23rd May).
https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=11

The arbitration request by the GG that was reported by ShareP....'s (fill in the blanks as you see fit), started what appeared to be an orchestrated shorting attack on FRR. The leak is assumed to have come from SH/O, as the modus operandi of SH/O is to target distressed companies and restrict their funding capabilities. The subsequent naked shorting by YA and shorting by TW et al greatly restricted the avenues for funding. Thus, SH/O possibly saw the arbitration as FRR's Achilles Heel. Move on year and IMHO the Achilles heal has turned into a Trojan Horse. SH/O may have assumed that due to the following two points, the assets were unlikely to be moved :-
1) The request for arbitration by the GG.
2) The fact that if Block 12 was moved from FRCC without the approval of the GG it reverted to the GG.
IMHO due to the previous points and a window of opportunity between the two court cases, then SH/O tried to take control of the assets, by resigning and trying to liquidate FRCC. IMHO the arbitration appears to have been a lever in the negotiating of the sunk costs between FRR and the GG, which are about $400m. These costs are recoverable from production under the PSA, prior to the 51% (GG share) and 49%(FRR share) split in production. The price of the 1% in ground value of Block 12 (26.7kMMbbls x $60/b = $16bn) halved for FRR's share = $8bn. Therefore, the 5% royalty equates to $400m of the $8bn, the same amount as the sunk costs. Thus the arbitration request may have allowed the deal with the GG, which removed Block 12 from the clutches of SH/O's cronies. At the same time this facilitated his removal from the board and his veto of a possible loan with GC. Therefore, the arbitration turned from being an Achilles Heel into a Trojan Horse. All conjecture, but the theory fits (copied from the 9th post down in the link below posted on the 9th May).
https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=9

Furthermore, if my assumptions are correct and the brokers have wrongly assumed that FRR are toast, then the repercussion's could still hit the shorters. We know that the FCA is largely ineffectual, but if international banks acting as brokers become collateral damage, IMHO they will lobby the SEC. The shorters could still have a date with Zib's Mr Big yet.

1) Zaza has never hidden his loathing of the shorting.
2) The recent article hints and FRR not re-listing.
3 ) IG has paid out as FRR are removed from CREST and HSBC don't think they will re-list.
4) Zaza and Steve are not hiding, but are in meetings in Georgia.
5) FRR are taking the Ukraine government to court over the Dolphin prospect, yet unless they can show rich backers, they have no chance of overturning the result.
6) There's job adverts by BP in Georgia.
7) SH/O has indicated in the court papers that FRR is coming into money soon.
8) FRR made a press statement in the Ukraine indicating 30 TCF and 14.1 billion barrels of oil reserves.

IMHO FRR are selling out completely to the super majors, but as they want the Dolphin prospect as well, the takeover is delayed. Therefore, FRR will not re-list and CREST have been notified. As this will not hit the shorters, FRR will hit those backing the shorters instead, which could end up in a shakeup of the industry. Just a waiting game now and still confident.

Dulwichman - That bodes well for FRR's cheap to extract high quality sweet crude. My posts about FRR's oil quality and the future price of oil are copied below :-
Top quality at cheap prices.

FRR's sweet crude of 41.5 API would be to the right of Brent and WTI on the chart in the link below. In fact only the Algerian Sahara Blend and the Malaysia Tapis are of higher quality looking at the chart. Top quality oil that can be extracted for less than $12/bbl, no wonder the super majors are interested.
https://www.energyandcapital.com/resources/brent-vs-wti-crude-oil-what-is-the-difference/17

The interesting point in the link below is the Comparative Cost of Production Table, where only Saudi Arabia produces some of it's oil cheaper @ $10/bbl - $25/bbl, than the less than $12/bbl costs for FRR.
Comparative cost of production
In this table, which is based on the Scotiabank Equity Research and Scotiabank Economics report that was published 28 November 2014,[2] economist Mohr compares the cost of cumulative crude oil production in the fall of 2014.

Plays Cost of production fall 2014
Saudi Arabia US$10–25 per barrel
Montney Oil Alberta and British Columbia US$46
Saskatchewan Bakken US$47
Eagle Ford, USA Shale+ $40–6 US$50 (+ Liquids-rich Eagle Ford plays, assuming natural gas prices of US$3.80 per mmbtu)
Lloyd & Seal Conventional Heavy, AB US$50
Conventional Light, Alberta and Saskatchewan US$58.50
Nebraska USA Shale US$58.50
SAGD Bitumen Alberta US$65
North Dakota Bakken, Shale US$54–79
Permian Basin, TX Shale US$59–82
Oil sands legacy projects US$53
Oil sands mining and infrastructure new projects US$90
This analysis "excludes "'up-front' costs (initial land acquisition, seismic and infrastructure costs): treats 'up-front' costs as 'sunk'. Rough estimate of 'up-front' costs = US$5–10 per barrel, though wide regional differences exist. Includes royalties, which are more advantageous in Alberta and Saskatchewan." The Weighted average of US$60-61 includes existing Integrated Oil Sands at C$53 per barrel."[2]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Canadian_Select

Future oil prices
Oil Price forecast 2025 and 2050
By 2025, the average price of a barrel of Brent crude oil will rise to $85.70/b (in 2017 dollars, which removes the effect of inflation). By 2030, world demand will drive oil prices to $92.82/b. By 2040, prices will be $106.08/b (again in 2017 dollars). By then, the cheap sources of oil will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. By 2050, oil prices will be $113.56/b, according to Table 12 of the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook's Reference Tables. The EIA has lowered its price estimates from 2017, reflecting the stability of the shale oil market.
https://www.thebalance.com/oil-price-forecast-3306219
While a lot can happen to alter the price of oil, hence the recent volatility in the market, diminishing cheaper oil reserves bodes well for FRR's cheap sweet crude.

pophead - It's possible that Jacknife has been paid. Only needs some sucker to give up with all the negative bile by the shorters and sell cheaply on the grey market. This could be why there's value some day's and zero value on other's, hence Bigun2's post @ 11:01. This would explain the relentless negative posting by the shorters.

If the four wells cleaned ready were to be drilled into the lower Eldari B zones, are tested at the same choke as T39. Then with higher pressures from the deeper zones I would expect at least 2000bopd from each, or 8000bopd in total. Add the current production and with the four cleaned wells Frr could be producing 10kbopd. IMHO the ability to obtain a loan (without SH/O's veto) and greatly increase production has enabled FRR to negotiate the sale of Block 12 with the super majors. IMHO this is why both Zaza and SN are in the Caucasus region and why the court summons hasn't been served.

I've copied the production quote from the interview posted by Chris572 below :-

- Is it true that Frontera produces about 2 thousand barrels per day?

- No, less. To two. In 2018, we produced about 500 thousand barrels (about 70 thousand tons. - EP ). It's not about how many barrels. The fact is, for what period the production is designed. Will she stop in two months or in 20 years?

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=5

Using the figures from my post on the 7th Feb. in the link above :-

144,823bbls - 101160bbls = 43663bbls light crude for the 1st six months 2018
312bopd x 180d = 56160 bbls light crude for the 2nd six months of 2018 (without T39)
Total light crude without T39 = 99823bbls
Total heavy crude = 27373bbls.
Total crude without T39 = 127198bbls.

Zaza stated about 500kbbls or about 70kt. Using the lower figure of 500kbbls instead of 70k x 7.71 = 539.7kbbls.
500000bbls - 127198bbls = 372802bbls from T39 which equates to 2071bopd for the remaining 180 days.

As FRR needed the money quickly, IMHO they opened up the choke to 32/64" which implies a flow rate of around 2116bopd if the equation is linear. We know the equation isn't linear, but close to linear and 2071bopd and 2116bopd are pretty close.
As the second part of the statement is about how long production is designed for, then with the computer modelling, the optimum flow rate for T39 after the flow test would appear to be slightly less at 1587bopd with a choke of 24/64". Obviously in reality the figure will be slightly less than the linear calculation, just asthe 2071bopd is less than the envisaged 2116bopd.
Therefore, current production would be 1587bopd (but probably slightly less) + 312bopd = 1899bopd light crude. Add 75bopd heavy crude = 1974bopd. Hence, the answer of Zaza stating 'no' to 2000bopd, 'less, to two' (2000bopd).

It appears that my interpretation was wrong about being able to access the money, as Bigun2 has pointed out. The money stays in the Proceeds Accounts until FRR goes bust or re-lists. As Shouldhavedone's account is showing full value I assume that he/she is long. The shorts, having paid nothing for their shares (they pay to buy back when closing the short) will list as zero until this is concluded. The values are nothing more than accounting figures IMHO.

Tsbs - Not exactly. I don't use IG, but IMHO this is how I interpret the situation :-
1) If FRR goes bust then as IG has settled all accounts as zero, then nothing more is done.
2) If FRR pays out a special dividend, but remains private, then the status quo of settlement at zero still remains.
3) If FRR relists on any stock exchange, then the longs are paid out and the shorts will have a very big bill.

The current settlement at zero, while seeming to favour the shorts, actually favour's the longs. The shorts were effectively paid out when they borrowed and sold the shares, they just couldn't access the money. Now they can access the money, but they still have the worry of FRR coming back to the market. The long's position was reduced to zero, but with the possibility of a big payout if FRR re-list. However, both longs and shorts would have to keep their positions open by paying money each month, or whatever length of contract they had taken out a position for. The longs who may have written off their investment in FRR, now no longer need to pay to keep the chance of a large payout a possibility.

Lots of green boxes on here today. Regdik has given me an idea. I'll re-name them 'RAT TRAPS'!

Star - Your omitting the differences between the two debt owners. The original debt owner didn't try to takeover FRR or restrict other avenues for finance. Therefore, FRR would have been much further forward in proving the resources and production, where the LN's would cease to be a problem. Your clouded by the desire for this to fail, which is also confirmation bias. Yet you tell us that your not shorting FRR, therefore your only concerned with your own ego. Otherwise, why do you bother coming on here? As for my valuations, they're all supported by links to other M + A's, the POO, reserves, oil and gas in place and what is recoverable.

Gipps - IMHO the arbitration was for leverage against a bigger piece of the pie. I still think that the 5% RA is the GG's reward for this strategy. The court paper show that SH/O has not been privy to some information, so why let SH/O know about the arbitration? The recent articles about the arbitration are old news, which IMHO is linked with the politics of Georgia.

Flakey5185 - The only reason SH/O is involved with FRR is because they bought the debt at a fraction of it's value off a distressed company. Therefore, to blame BOD for what has happened with SH/O is wrong. SH/O have done NOTHING for FRR, but have tried to takeover FRR from within by restricting the avenues for finance.