Member Info for Madpunter

Tsbs - A buyout will mean no re-list. The longs and shorts on IG are based upon share price, therefore the shorts are paid and the longs lose (only on platforms like IG, where it is a bet on the share price). IMHO Mourant and the liquidators have been paid from production revenue, nullifying the Texas case. The ADR then becomes about how much FRR gets from SH/O, so if a deal is done with BP et al, they would get that money, not the shareholders. IMHO this is why the ADR will need to complete first.

Oil equivalent = 19.1 billion barrels x $60/bbl (Brent is currently $60.5 and Block 12 normally sells at about a $5 premium) = $1146bn. Typical figures of 5 - 10% = $(57.3 - 114.6)bn. However, under the PSA with the 5% RA added, the GG gets 53.5% of production, reducing the valuation to 46.5% of those figures = $26.6bn - $53.3bn. While I have been conservative with the PoO, they will look at valuation with predicted future prices as extraction will be over decades. Also, there are time constraints regarding proving up the licence which can impact upon the price.

Gipps - The reserves of 14 + billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas implies that the super majors have independently verified Block 12, which greatly increases the value. The development is normally significant in any valuation, but Block 12 has 1204 wells drilled, some of which can be cleaned and side tracked, plus the WREP, BTC, SCP, TANAP and TAP pipelines run through or are nearby. Add to that the very high quality sweet crude of 41.5 API and very low costs of under $12/bbl.

This is looking more likely that SH and TW et al will not get to meet Zib's Mr Big. IMHO FRR have paid the liquidator's and Mourant, which will nullify SH/O's case in Texas. If this is the case then why deal with the Californian case through ADR, when FRR are free to sell Block 12 and pursue SH/O at their leisure? IMHO the super majors want FRR lock, stock and barrel (in this case barrels of oil) and both the super major's and the GG will want a deal sooner rather than later. This would also explain the no show in the Ukraine by Zaza and why no news is forthcoming about the cases. If my assumption is right, then the courts will remain schtum until the ADR process has run it's course. Furthermore, a buyout of FRR will mean that the shorter's who used IG will win and the longs with IG will lose, as there will be no re-list. Shareholders will be paid and the shares cancelled, plus they will probably get shares in the super majors (a buyout will probably be a mixture of cash and shares). IG may have already made the same assumption, hence the closure of positions at zero.

bedex - IMHO there's 8 US senator's that don't think the production figures should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Bezzy - Added to the Frontera Archive as requested :-

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=25

For those not familiar with the original 'Bob's your Uncle', see the links below :-
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bob%27s%20your%20uncle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob%27s_your_uncle

Mills240 - Hence the saying 'A nip and a tuck and Bob's your Auntie!'

I haven't been on holiday for a decade, but when FRR does a deal with the super majors,I hope that is about to change. After reading a few interesting holiday articles, Georgia is definitely on my list of travel destinations. (see links below)

http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20191009-how-to-holiday-like-the-soviet-elite
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20170918-a-georgian-welcome-on-the-frontline-of-war
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20171120-georgias-addictive-cousin-to-pizza
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20180125-georgias-surprising-shrine-to-stalin
http://www.bbc.com/travel/story/20160425-how-to-survive-a-georgian-feast

Thanks Grayhorse. your post on employee numbers has been copied to the Frontera Archive :-

https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=25

Coggy - When FRR officially announce 14+ billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas reserves = 19.1 + billion barrels of oil equivalent, they will overtake Azerbaijan's 7 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Furthermore, if I'm wrong about FRR drilling into zones 21, 23 and 24, then the reserves are likely to increase. As for production, while there may be constraints at present, there are plenty of pipelines running through the country. Therefore, it won't take too long to put the smaller pipelines in place to feed them. Also, there will be some of the 1,000's of wells already drilled which are suitable for cleaning and side tracking, which will speed up the increased production.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

I wonder if Georgia is about to overtake Azerbaijan in the production of oil and gas? Would an Azerbaijani drilling team have sour grapes? No sour grapes in Georgia, from what we saw recently there's lovely sweet ones made into wine. If there's no oil and gas maybe FRR borrowed Labour's magic money tree to pay the bills over the last 18 months.

FRR has 240 employees, 49 of them with enough qualifications/work experience/skill levels to warrant a profile on Linkedin. They also employ 'the recognized father of quantitative basin modeling' and had 4 wells cleaned ready to drill and test 3 further zones in the Eldari B almost a year ago. It is over 15 months since the company perforated zone 19 with T39 flowing 250bopd through a 3mm hole and 529bopd through a 8/64" choke, which implies over 4000bopd is possible at full bore. Yet to suggest that FRR could be producing in excess of 8000bopd puts me in dreamworld?

Senior Advisor (Oil and Gas Field Development)
Dr.Arif_YuklerTurkish-American nationalities.
Over 40years experience in the international oil & gas industry, and has advised companies and government entities of all size from small caps to super-majors, as well as state regulatory authorities on the management of resources and exploration areas.
Recognized as the father of quantitative basin modeling with fully registered YUKLER3D, YUKLER2D, YUKLER1D and YUKLERPC softwares. Dr. Yukler’s studies led to discoveries of more than 80 oil and gas fields worldwide.
Dr. Yukler has held numerous senior executive roles at energy companies and Renaissance Capital Invesment Bank throughout his career. He also had the Nordic Ministerat Professor position at the University of Bergen, Norway, where he taught quantitative basin modeling, exploration and exploitation in the North Sea and petroleum economics.
Trained at Shell, MS and PhD in Geology from the University of Kansas as Fullbright Scholar, and BS and MSc in Petroleum Engineering from Istanbul Technical University. Dr. Yukler has published more than 30 research articles.

https://www.globalresourcespartnership.com/portfolio_page/dr-mehmet-arif-yukler/

Whilst on the subject of Employee numbers , Visit the Frontera Resources LinkedIn “page”
It states 201 - 500 employees
With 49 employees on LinkedIn

One employee that stands out for me is :

Mehmet Yukler ( senior VP )
Apparently this chap is the father of quantitative basin modelling.

Google Mehmet Yukler and read his cv ! Quite impressive.

49 Genuine Frontera Resources Employees on LinkedIn working in IT, Geology, logistics etc

This looks and feels like a company, which is very much alive , thriving and growing.

ODR - I read one article on here that stated Trident spent $12m on their bid. We know that FRR has spent $100k's on lobbying. There will be lawyer's fees for the bid, plus the subsequent court case. There's also the cost of using the US embassy for meeting the Ukraine PM. Then there's the cost of any bid, plus travel and hotel expenses. While I doubt that we spent $12m, $1-2m is a distinct possibility.

Timster - Where was the evidence of producing 500kbopd last year, with most of it in H2. The only evidence is that the lights are still on despite numerous court cases, a bid that cost millions in the Ukraine and 240 employees.

Timster - Last year it was dream world to suggest close to 1000bopd. However, a year later FRR are still up and running, bidding for tenders where they have to spend $56m, funding numerous court cases and 240 employees. Zaza has also stated 500kbopd and up to 2000bopd for 2018, more than double what even the most optimistic were predicting. We know that 4 wells were cleaned ready last year and that priority for revenue would be the court cases and paying off SH/O. We also know that Zaza had offered a $5m loan previously to FRR. Therefore, it's possible that when the revenue was close to the point of covering debts and expenditure, less an amount that could be covered by loans from Zaza and SN, that FRR proceeded with the 4 wells cleaned ready last November. IMHO that point would not be until at the very earliest the latter part of Q2 or even as late as the end of Q3. The results of testing on the lower zones of the Eldari B may be what we are waiting for to get a deal signed. Remember that T39 was flowing 250bopd through a 3mm hole and that at full bore over 4000bopd was possible. Therefore, IMHO to suggest 6000bopd + from a further 4 wells into deeper zones with higher pressures doesn't seem like dream world. If FRR are not drilling and producing more hydrocarbons, then what are the 240 employees doing?

Sorry the link didn't copy

http://www.energyglobalnews.com/frontera-prepares-for-completing-taribani-wells-in-southeastern-georgia/

IMHO FRR will be producing over 8k bopd before the end of this year if Block 12 deal is not completed by the super majors. FRR had 4 wells (Niko, T16, T24 and T31) cleaned ready to drill, into the Eldari b zones 19, 21, 23 and 24. IMHO the super majors would want to test the latter 3 zones and possibly the co-mingling of zones to enable a value of Block 12. Furthermore, Zaza now states reserves of 14+ billion barrels of oil and 30 TCF of gas (see first link below). Whereas, previously FRR had resources of 10,225 MMbbl (OOIP) of which 1,673 MMbbl is recoverable and 12.9 TCF (OGIP) of which 9 TCF is recoverable (see second link below). IMHO that huge increase did not come from just T39 and zone 19, but by testing the other 3 zones as well with the 4 wells cleaned ready last November (see third link below). Therefore, if my production figures for 2018 are right (see the 4th post from the bottom of the fourth link below), then there's 1887bopd from the wells producing last year, with 1500bopd of that from T39's zone 19. As zones 21, 23 and 24 are deeper and with higher pressures I would assume at least the same 1500bopd from each and possibly more.Therefore, 4 x 1500bopd = 6,000bopd + 1887bopd = 7887bopd. Due to the deeper zones I have estimated that the total is in excess of 8,000bopd.

https://expro.com.ua/en/tidings/frontera-resources-wants-to-sue-the-ukrainian-government-for-violating-the-psas-dolphin-competition
https://fronteraresources.com/operations/georgia/
http://www.energyglobalnews.com/frontera-prepares-for-completing-taribani-wells-in-southeastern-georgia/
https://www.lse.co.uk/chat/general/commodities-and-mining/frontera-archive-41C7D130-7E51-4344-82E7-83B697F53322.html?page=23