Member Info for Madpunter

Phil - There were protests and then the GD agreed to the new system. Then before it became law they reneged, stating that it would be for the next election and not this one in 2020. There were more protests plus pressure from the US and EU, before the GD agreed to the new system and to the release of political prisoners. There is still one political prisoner who has not been released.

Phil_2018 - The previous post was copied from the post by Earsbern on Tuesday 28th @ 20:58. As you can see the election is split with 120 seats by PR and 30 seats by majority vote. If the GD were to get 39% of the vote, then in the PR = 46.8 seats and if in 39% of the seats with majority vote they also have a majority, they will get another 11.7 seats. Even with rounding up that only equals 59 seats, which is not enough to form the government. The other parts have formed a united opposition to the GD to remove them from office and for most of the parties they are only nominating one candidate between them for the seats with the majority vote. Only one of the united opposition parties has not agreed to this for the majority vote. Therefore, the GD is less likely to win 39% of the seats with a majority vote and even if they still have the most seats overall, will have a lot less than the united opposition overall.

No matter how hard I looked, I could find no mention of the official election dates. So I emailed the Georgian embassy in London with a few basic questions about the election procedure. Just for info, This is it :-
____________________________
Hi - I have an interest in election methodologies, and would like to follow the georgian parliamentary elections in October. I understand that 120 seats are chosen by proportional representation and 30 seats by majority vote, and that these votes are cast over 2 rounds. I would be grateful if you could kindly find the time to answer the following few basic questions for me so I can better understand what is happening.
The questions are :---

1. What are the dates for rounds 1 & 2, please?
2. Does each voter have 2 votes - one for the PR seats, and another one for the majoritarian seats?
3. Will the PR voting paper have the same list of candidates for the whole country?
4. Are all PR votes decided by completion of the count in round 1 - e.g. the PR seats do not go forward to round 2.
5. After round 1, do majoritarian seats go forward to round 2 only if no candidate has more than 50% of the vote?

Thank you for your time.
-------------------------------------------------------
And the reply (next day) :-
-------------------------------------------------------
Thank you for your interest in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Georgia, to be held in late October this year. Please kindly find below answers to your questions.

1. Regular elections of the Parliament of Georgia shall be held in October of the calendar year during which the term of authority of the Parliament expires. The President of Georgia shall call the date of the elections, upon countersignature of the Prime-Minister of Georgia, no later than 60 days before the elections. Accordingly, the exact date has not been defined yet.
2. Yes, each voter has 2 votes - one for the PR seats and another for the majoritarian seats.
3. Yes, PR voting paper will have the same list of candidates for the whole country.
4. PR votes are decided by completion of the count and there is no 2nd round for PR seats.
5. Yes, if no candidate has more than 50% of the vote, there will be 2nd round between first two candidates.

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The dates, then, should be published any time now.
In theory, the parliamentary majority could be decided after round 1 (presumably in early October), when at least 120 seats will have been decided.
Genuine election wonks like me may also like to know that the PR system used is the 'closed list' method, where people vote for the party rather than individuals, and the party's published list of their candidates is in the order that the party wishes them to be elected - e.g. the party's most preferred candidate is top of the list, and so is their first one 'past the post'. This method was used for UK elections

Blownitalready - ADC have timed their lawsuit nicely. I think there will be articles about the GD's campaign against FRR, ADC and IC almost daily now until the election. Add in the political pressure from Uncle Sam and the Georgian population will certainly now that voting for the GD will result in less foreign investment and jobs.

Earsbern - Although no date has been set, the election has to be held before the end of October, hence my previous post of 'T - 100', when there were 100 days to the 31st October.
http://aceproject.org/today/election-calendar/election-calendar/elections-calendar

T - 95 and counting.
https://www.weeksuntil.com/date/2020/october/31

Jonathansxx - The GG have 99% of the area of Block 12 and FRR have 1% of the area, but it holds 99% of the value of Block 12. As long as Zaza doesn't include the words 'area' or 'territory', then what he is stating could be correct.

The GD claims 99% of the area has been returned.
Zaza states that 99% remains with the company and 1% with the GG.
Zaza doesn't mention 'area' or 'territory'. Therefore, IMHO Zaza could be referring to the value, with 99% of the value of Block 12 staying with FRR.

Jonathansxx - The Houston Chronicle would appear to be currently Democrat having endorsed Hilary Clinton in the 2016 election.
https://ballotpedia.org/Houston_Chronicle

Georgia election date - 31st October 2020.

http://aceproject.org/today/election-calendar/election-calendar/elections-calendar

There are 100 days until 31 October 2020

https://www.weeksuntil.com/date/2020/october/31

It's called diplomacy. What if the GD and BI have realised that they might lose power and now want to deal with FRR, Uncle Sam, the EU and the UK, instead of Russia, China and Iran (FRR has been quiet the last few weeks)? Would those in prominent positions with the GD want some sort of protection, as they might be worried after what happened with Litvinenko and Skripal? This might explain Adam Kinzinger's support for immediate NATO membership. Also, while Uncle Sam might want regime change in Georgia, IMHO they won't want people to think that they have manipulated the election. Uncle Sam has to abide by the rules, whereas other countries don't care what people think and will muddy the waters with propaganda. Hence, only a 15% cut in aid, instead of cutting all aid, could be perceived as a veiled threat. All still to play for IMHO.

Goit - They probably do understand patriotism, sovereignty and pride in the UK, but many of them spend as much time as possible in their second homes on the Continent. Homes, that many envisage living in permanently during retirement. Therefore, they have one foot already planted outside the UK and are just worried about increased costs and bureaucracy.
While on the subject of Brexit, the Remoaners kept telling everyone the UK would lose access to the EU's financial markets (see the first link below). Well the EU has had to climb down over city access, news that's good for Brexit. Hence, the fact that it hasn't been splashed across the BBC (see the second link below).

Brexit deal: EU may threaten 'to block' City's access to its markets
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/11/brexit-deal-eu-may-threaten-to-block-citys-access-to-its-markets

EU Brexit Climbdown Over City Access
https://doncharisma.org/2020/07/10/eu-brexit-climbdown-over-city-access/

The reduced demand for oil through COVID-19, plus the oil price war between Russia and the KSA, sent prices into negative territory. OPEC has since cut production and wells have been shut-in, especially in the higher break even shale areas. Some of these wells will become damaged and will never flow again, especially if they low flow rates and high costs, as drilling will be uneconomical. Add to this the natural decline of wells and fields. Fields which are not being replaced through reduced exploration and development, due to the low price of oil and the move towards renewable energy. In the Spring there was talk about storage capacity running out, yet Cushing peaked at 65 M bbl's (91 M bbl's capacity) at the start of May and has now dropped below 50 M bbl's. The World has not yet recovered from COVID-19, therefore the demand is likely to increase, but the production capacity will be reduced.

Cushing, OK Crude Oil Stocks:48.74M bbl for Wk of Jul 10 2020
https://ycharts.com/indicators/weekly_cushing_ok_ending_stocks_crude_oil

The Peaking of Storage
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/the-peaking-of-storage.html

From Supply Glut To Energy Shock
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349210-from-supply-glut-to-energy-shock

Chronicle 2000 at 21 July, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FAHe8ygHrQ

IMHO the ease of expropriation needs adding to the World Bank Ease of Doing Business rankings. Protecting investors is apparently one of the criteria used in ranking nations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ease_of_doing_business_index

One of Europe’s Longest-Running Hedge Funds Is Quitting the Shorting Game
Lansdowne Partners is winding down its main long-short fund, emphasizing long-only investments and launching a new long-only fund.
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1md1phhxw7v11/One-of-Europe-s-Longest-Running-Hedge-Funds-Is-Quitting-the-Shorting-Game

There maybe a few more come November.

Zeps - Sorry to hear about your son, I had started my post and was reading up about RealClear, so I didn't see your follow up post.

zeps - What makes you think that they have seen the full arbitration result, when it hasn't been published in full? If the US was on the side of Georgia and not FRR, why the recent sanctions? If the arbitration ruled unanimously in favour of Georgia,
why did they only win/ highlight two of the 14 rulings? It couldn't be something to do with the fact that RealClear is a lover of Putin could it?

RealClear Media Has a Secret Facebook Page to Push Far-Right Memes
RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image—while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/realclear-media-has-a-secret-facebook-page-filled-with-far-right-memes

ODR - Surprise, surprise, The Guardian didn't print an article on the story, as they don't like to air news that reflects poorly on the left. Similarly, you have to go back a few pages to find one on 'Keir Starmer and BLM', if that is Googled. Even then the story concentrates on the interpretation of the word 'moment', to deflect from the fact that Starmer criticized the aim of defunding the police and the anti-Semitism.
IMHO this is on topic, as Trump is required for sanctions against the Russian influence in Georgia. When Obama was in office, there were no sanctions against Nord2. Nord2 and control of Georgia's hydrocarbons are key components in the control of the EU's energy supply. Hence, Trump has brought in sanctions against companies working on Nord2, and even companies who do maintenance on equipment that may be used by those working on Nord2.

Geela - No decent person would argue against the need for change in US policing to stop the unlawful killings, but it is the
anti-semitic and anarchistic views of BLM that are the problem. This is why people like Patrice Evra have ditched them.

Sky Sports pundit Patrice Evra led the way in DITCHING Black Lives Matter badge just before last night's show and Jamie Redknapp followed his lead as Premier League distances itself following group's extreme statements
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8478305/Sky-Sports-pundit-Patrice-Evra-led-way-DITCHING-Black-Lives-Matter-badge.html

EkXoc - Under both communism and fascism there's a dictator and their cronies/oligarchs at the top, with everyone else at the bottom. Both systems are run like a police state with no freedom of speech, with spies and informers everywhere. Look what happens to anyone who speaks out against Putin, even when residing overseas. The same thing happened under Hitler. Both systems are the same and the only way to deal with them is to be tough. In the run up to WW1 and WW2, both Randolph Churchill and Winston Churchill wanted to keep adding to Britain's defences to avoid conflict with Germany. They lost popularity and Britain missed the chance to avoid war. Britain got an agreement with Germany to avoid war and we know it wasn't even worth the paper it was written on. You cannot be timid with dictators. Timid Ted was reluctant to upset China when Taiwan warned about COVID-19 and now we have millions of cases, plus worldwide economic disruption. When SARS started Brundtland was tough with China and demanded the data, saving the World from a pandemic.
Trump may be narcissistic, but that is the type of leader who is willing to take the tough decisions. Obama and Clinton may be more popular, but IMHO they're reluctance to be tough has left the World in a far more dangerous position.
IMHO this is why Zaza and Uncle Sam need to be tough with the GG. FRR has a contract, but when they don't get paid VAT money owed or permits to use your own gas pipeline, what is the worth of the contract. If it's not extended past 2027, then there's not enough time to recoup the investment required to develop the fields. The GD may give Zaza what FRR require, if they sense that it might help their election bid, but it's looking less likely. Therefore, it will probably require regime change to enable a deal with the SM's, hence the November date suggested by JRjnr.