Looking ahead20 May 2026 12:32
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For the benefit of those not on Telegram I’ll post my thoughts here as well.
PLACEMENT FINANCE; LOOKING AHEAD
20 Jan 2026 – £4.5m
• Funds Trinidad & Morocco, including Snowcap-3 to evaluate 600-foot reservoir
• Use: SC-3 appraisal, production growth, Guercif gas monetisation
April 2026 – £3m
• Funds Corrib South + Trinidad, including Snowcap-3 development and gas re-injection studies
• Use: deepening SC-3, Corrib South update, MOU-6 inventory & EIA
KEY CATALYST – ANY DAY
Potential Morocco farm-out / offtake announcement
• NDAs signed, multiple parties in data room, undisclosed Morocco ITR available
• Could be HoT for CNG offtake (10-20 mmscfd) or full farm-out carrying MOU-6
• Reward: immediate re-rate, funds MOU-6 without dilution
TRINIDAD – PREDATOR DRILLS
Late June 2026 – Flagstaff interview – Paul Griffiths with Catherine McQueen, pre-SC-3
Late June 2026 – SC-3 SPUD – targets 600-foot Herrera, ITR 8.73 MMbbl 2P, 1.84 MMboe 3C, unlocks 56.9MMbbl (∼$6.1bn gross), 1,000-1,500 bopd initial
Early-mid July 2026 – SC-3 drilling & logging
Mid-late July 2026 – SC-3 testing period – flow test, PBU, fluid sampling, gas re-injection compatibility
Late July 2026 – SC-3 results RNS
Post-results – SC-3 deepening option – funded by April placing
July 2026 – BON-19 (+50-100 bopd)
August 2026 – BON-20 + 12 infills (→ 400-600 bopd, then 1,000 bopd)
Q4 2026 – SC-4 (site work started March 2026, +200-300 bopd)
Q1 2027 – SC-5 + Cory Moruga-1 (toward 1,500+ bopd)
Projected Predator-operated total (ex-Nabi): ∼2,200-2,800 bopd by Q1 2027
NABI – WORKOVERS
• 14 heavy workovers 2026, NABI-funded, zero opex to PRD
• Expected to add $1-1.2m per year in additional revenue
MOROCCO – GUERCIF (75%)
• Now-Q3: farm-out discussions (NDA)
• Undisclosed ITR: underpins 441 BCF net 2C
• Jul-Aug: MOU-6 prep – materials already ordered
• Sep-Oct: HoT if not already announced (∼$15-30m/yr net)
• 5 Nov 2026: Second Extension to 2031+
• Q4 2026: MOU-6 spud (this year)
Comment – games being played: Classic farm-out poker. Multiple bidders have the undisclosed ITR, but no one's shown their hand. PRD holds 75% and MOU-6 is ready to spud Q4. Paul's stubbornness is the wild card – he'd rather drill it alone than farm out cheap. Yes, Trinidad cash from SC-3 won't land before the Q4 rig slot, so without a deal the fallback is a small, tactical top-up – not a distress raise, but one done post-SC-3 success at a re-rated price. Bidders know the game: wait too long and Paul funds MOU-6 himself, keeps 75% of 441 BCF net 2C, and the price to get in doubles. With WTI at $108 and Europe desperate for safe-haven gas, it's who blinks first – and PRD isn't the one under pressure.