Member Info for macd_91

Speaking from experience in the North Sea; generally you’d pay a certain amount for holding a certain amount of acreage in licence fees etc. so if the geologists and geophysicists have analysed it and restricted the water contact laterally that can change how much acreage you need to hold.

They also might have been holding out for a water injector location that is more distal and the subsurface team have found a more optimal sweep approach in a smaller area closer to the producing wells.

(I’m a geologist/geophysicist in oil and gas)

As someone who works in oil and gas (geologist) the answer is never

Im not one for calling people out but with nothing to back up your reasoning.

Do you know why we were at 38p?

We were there because Shell purchased BG.

Your statement 'speculation alone' yeah it was speculation, risked speculation that all the wells would hit and that people were hoping that the subsurface model was robust and that we could prove a consistent petroleum system and hit a sealed reservoir with Oil and Gas in it... we did one of those things hence a price drop and the rewards changed for investors.

You're right in that this share could well make it to 38p, but in this year it would have to have a lot of favourable events occur.

Stick to the facts. People who say it was that before shouldn't be investing on that knowledge.

The exploration licence will make a light difference i imagine but in reality not much because I'd say most investors have factored this in already. You'd perhaps see a bump up to 4p as it removes some uncertainty but all eyes are on the funding and drilling so until thats announced i imagine it will lay a bit dormant bumbling along.
(this is just my view, but in the company i work for a licence makes little to no difference when announced, its all about the funding < drilling < testing .

MrP, you are pretty much bang on. This process will depend on how closely the interpretation of the fluid and reservoir come to the flow assurance that will be carried out before and during the testing. A normal test takes a few days normally but if different choke sizes need to be utilised it can take longer than that depending on how accurate they were in estimating the volumes/flow rates.

GreenManDK, When carrying out a flow test the main thing they are trying to achieve is to see how hard they can flow the well within reason. Basically they flow the well at full-tilt at ~100% choke open and measure the rate for 24-48hrs. This gives them the base line reading for the production rate they can expect to achieve (this would be a standard flow test). Sometimes a company would want to flow test for longer periods (up to 7days), it depends at what rate the well becomes equilibrium.
Beyond this they will dial back the choke to achieve their flow rate that they will set as their new maximum i.e. ~70% open is standard. This allows for a window of fluctuation which makes it easier to manage the production.

hope this helps.

dusthater, 270 posts on MATD in the past 30 days. Last i checked you've contributed diddly squat so why waste your time? Time is money after all, money comes and goes but time you can't get back... so why don't you be more productive and go and play with your Leggo or something?
( beating a dead horse emoji )

I will raise my hand, i have rather a lot of experience all in the north sea, all major operators, none on land, however most of the processes are the same.

apunter2, I haven't had a look at the pressure regime of this well no, however with them finding the oil contact one would assume that they will have enough aquifer drive to allow sufficient pressure equilibrium to provide a good flow rate. I haven't got much knowledge on the Mongolian geological pressure regimes however i will maybe have a look if i have time. Putting a pump in is not a bad thing ( as long as its not pulling too hard and coning the water contact).

Oils, I haven't had a look at them no, i was invested in MATD at the time when BG Shell takeover happened so i was invested in that for a reason (i think it looked reasonably good on paper but i hadn't done much investigating at that time, i just liked the look at where the company was going. *to remain fully transparent* I will admit that I did end up selling my holding at the peak 32p-ish as i had reached my threshold and had other opportunities to go after. I bought back in once the price settled back in the single digits.)

I'll have a look and see what i think of them as it could be interesting to enlighten myself to it, and as always I will share my opinion of it with this board.

Cheers
i like to share my knowledge, no day rate needed, I'll recoup it from the share price when it reflects the value of what MATD has ;)

im open to discussions about it, it is interesting looking at this board and seeing some ideas and what not, but oil and gas isn't like other industries in how some things are quoted. Chance of Success (CoS) is a big one. Limiting factors include a ceiling to the CoS of 60-70% because there are no other wells in the structure. You might see a local scooping oil out with his hands from a shallow hand dug well but the CoS will still remain at 60-70% as there are no wells in the area. In another industry this would obviously be different but there are strict guidelines to this in oil and gas as there are some uncertainties in the data used for analysis and there are some historic guidelines that predetermine the CoS that you can go to like the limit stated previously. (even if the technology has got much much better)

I have to disagree with you dusterhater, in many other industries yes past failures do compound and make you miss trust the company and their performance. However this is not the case in oil and gas when it comes to finding the oil. If anything having more dusters makes a company more cautious and they learn from their mistakes and wrong assumptions, especially if drilling in the same area, it increases the chances for the next drill location. (trust me i've been there done it and worn the metaphorical T-shirt).

for instance I worked for a company that drilled a second well into a region and went through a fault we werent expecting, this changed the whole thinking behind the reservoir and how it had been mapped, it increased our understanding and showed us why we drilled a dry well 'duster'. The next well was better positioned and targeted a far better area and what do you know, oil, good quality and flow rates of 16,000-26,000 barrels per day.

People can argue with my point if they wish however unless they know oil and gas better than a hydrocarbon geologist/reservoir engineer who does this for a living like myself then I would ask them to not waste their breath.

From a geology & reservoir modelling point of view I would suggest that it would have oil.
Looking at the structure, setting, formations involved it looks like a good relief structure with a decent sealing top formation (shale) and a clear source (the carbonate shale).

I imagine that looking at the regional context and analogous reservoirs this should be a good reservoir. Will it have good poroperm? I say yeah as the burial depth isn't too deep so the structures will remain and oil will have been buried deep enough for a good source kitchen and not too much to degrade the oil.

Now the real question is if the faults are sealing. Taking into account the volume of shale in this area that is acting as the top seal i'd imagine that the faults have good shale smear and form a good seal. Along with this there may well be increased poroperm in these areas of faulting within the reservoir units from extra fractures.

I'd be willing to put money on it they will...oh wait I already have.

If poroperm is better in this part of the basin/formation compared to the petro china region, i would be very surprised if it wasn't.
Also please keep in mind this part of the reservoir has not been burried as deep therefore the oil will likely be a better quality (higher API) and move much easier through a better connected reservoir which would equate to far better rates.

i think im one of the very few on this board that actually talks the truth, trust me, im a geologist.

Obelix, I should clarify you can do fluid 'sampling' down hole on the wireline using a PVT tool (basically uses pressure volume temperature to give examples of the phase of the hydrocarbons present) however I dont think they are referring to this in the RNS.

Obelix, it really depends what kind of analysis they are doing, and how much they need to the tests they are going to do. they can collect samples easily enough with the wireline. The tool is called RFT or WFT. Wireline at a shallow depth like we have here would take (including rigging up costs about 1.5 weeks in my experience (depending on rig, well site space and the complexity of the job itself) this is without any hickups i would say. The testin could be done onsite for basic analysis but proper analysis would take a bit longer (im not sure exactly how long though)

Dustrhater, dust is a good thing yeah, imagine having some sand stone blocks and pouring water onto it, it doesnt go through right? now get that same rock and smash it up into sand and you can watch the water pour through it and come out the otherside. its the same principal. Its all about pore space and permability.

So any dust that is left over is actually really good because it is not 'dust' per say, its more just rock in the same place as it was but really broken up (kinda like dust) basically this helps prop open the hole/channel to prevent it caving in so that it is supported and still allows for fluid flow. (basically it increases poro-perm for that channel)

any more questions just give me a shout

The way it works is nothing to do with dust clogging or anything like that, 'duster' is a term used as there is no/very little liquid flow, there is no physical dust involved.
You perforate through the casing, its basically an explosion that is targeted through 1inch diameter holes out through the casing. This causes channels for the fluid to flow and holes for the fluid to enter through the casing.

A duster is where you perforate and nothing really flows (at an economical rate).

Hope this helps.

you have to do the logging to workout where to set the perforations to be able to get the flow test to work otherwise you've just set your casing across all of your units and are going to extract heehaw.
The logging will probably be Gamma, Sonic, Res, NeutronD.
Then they can tag their target horizons and finally run the guns to perforate. My thinking is they will need to run one set of guns perforating multiple intervals for maximum return and flow.

Proffit, I'm in the same boat as you! I'm very surprised.

De-rampers history:
Before- 'They will never hit oil, all have been dusters, sell now'
During- 'The well wont carry on because of the local government preventing them, sell now'.
After hitting oil and it being better than the reservoir model - 'Oh well they've hit oil and its better than they expected...but the flow rates are what is key, sell now'

all the de-rampers spouting nonsense