Member Info for macd_91

Having a good Poro-perm can make or break a reservoir, having the good poro-perm basically reduces the effort needed to extract the oil as the pockets between grains (filled with oil in our case) are connected to more pockets around it. This basically allows a 'oil highway' so the oil can be extracted far easier. Having a better porosity means that in theory there is more oil than they initially estimated.

We could potentially pull more oil out quicker than the Chinese can (from a well to well comparison)

So basically the RNS tells us that this wasn't just a success, it was 10x better than they could have hoped for.

I have to say this is no surprise to me at all that they struck oil, it is however a surprise that the share price hasnt gone up further.

Im glad that MATD have had a good result and everything went according to the prognoses. The geology and reservoir model looks very good indeed so there are no worries about the testing i'd say.

One thing to point out is that it is inter-bedded good quality sand and shale, meaning that perforations in the most productive zones will be mandatory. However depending on the structure of the bedding it could get a very good aquifer support and natural water drive into your production well making it much cheaper to produce than having a gas lift well. (im not sure on their plans for well design).

GLA

Yes flava but you said Monday. The way I see it you might as well spout putrid bile out as a de-ramper if you say things as gospel and convice people, when these prophesies dont happen then the sentiment is negative because you've told people something will happen...right? Can you not see that there is a difference between being confident and being a ramper/deramper.

It is so stupid all the crap that is on this board its unreal, people just need to clam it and see what happens the amount of he said she said its so juvenile and all the people with the 'i know whats going on' gag is laughable on so many fronts.

I know the reservoir model, i know the geology, I know oil and gas, i know drilling, I know my strategy, I know my facts, i know my risk is calculated.
One thing i dont know is whether we will suceed or not but thats the game isnt it.

Mike31, I think his CAPS lock is stuck on

BadA, I didn't realize you were a geologist too, how interesting. Perhaps we can discuss some of the intricacies behind hydrocarbon exploration and how when you are drilling a well in an area where there is a proven hydrocarbon system there is always oil. There will oil but is it commercially viable? that is the question. They wont know this until they have analysed the LWD logs and logged the well with wireline.
Oh wait.... your not so stop talking sh*te

I could be wrong but there was the uncrossing trade that went through @7.20 It looked as if thats what was the spanner in the works for price representation.

This is too early for a clear indication of any oil or no oil in the reservoir. If anything it would never show a clear picture and the lads on the rigs would never sell as they know there is a working petroleum system so the oil staining is there regardless. This is purely either PI's getting nervous or some canny MM's hitting the stop losses and getting a good bit of business because of it.

Regardless I'll sit back and watch this unfold. Topping up is looking likely for me anyway

Have to agree with you there Bonum, too early for that to be the cause. Im a bit perplexed by the situation.

I genuinely can't believe the immaturity here. Honestly grow up and stop being children.

Useless information that doesn't help anything or anyone.

As much as it isn't liked i do actually appreciate people like moveonup with contrasting views as this makes you question your own and actually makes your argument stronger by testing its robustness against others views.
However as a caveat to that;
I don't appreciate it when people use wrong, misleading information to misguide others from facts.

I am interested to learn more about actual trading and understand markets and the processes behind them more. my strengths lie in knowing and understanding oil and gas companies from subsurface to commercial and drilling.
(and i don't pretend to know anything i don't understand)

My money is in here because I practice what I preach.

GLA

If you want to be technical it wasn't a duster in the case of no oil. There was not an economic volume to be recovered and there was oil staining which proved the petroleum system. Sure it was a failure in providing oil flow but it has helped understand the geological modelling. This in turn means that the following drills beyond that point will have a better chance of success as they have information about the geology rather than just using seismic.

I respect both of your opinions on this matter however I believe both are about the right ball park in their own right. One would assume that naked_truth is correct with the current way MATD is viewed in the market but as JAdam you have said it should be much higher which i believe is more accurate as people are sitting on the fence here and all eyes are on MATD to succeed and prove the fence sitters wrong. At that point they will jump in as they will have proven they have the ability to get a plan to fruition.

Either way I'm happy, i know im going to have a very good pay day

Charlie, I'd have to agree with you there. The crew already know there is oil present there, they will have seen on the LWD tools that they have indications of a good reservoir and highly lightly the resistivity log will show good separation and a nice spike for some oil in place.
The crew will take their positions prior to the results/flow testing taking place. Normally that will be shown by the big buys coming in at least 10 days prior to the wire line logging (which has been said will be around the 9th).

Now these are the facts, and it is highly likely if there have been big positions like that taken then it will be trickles of news leaking out from the crew on the ground as its their way of making a bit of a bonus from their hard work (as most small companies see it...like HUR, i was on that rig when drilling)

All I can say is I've taken my position and maxed out my ISA as from what I have seen on the facts, the geology and the reservoir modelling its all good news. Compound that with the good communication that we have been getting through the drilling even the hickups with the short Heron suspension, I believe this will be an exciting place to be indeed.

Buccaneer/Obelix, I have no Idea the answers to your questions, i'm not versed in Mongolian drilling prices etc you should have a look online and see if you can find out any information as that's what i would be doing to answer your question.
As far as well performance it is an equation of time and reservoir quality/ water cut. Depending on how old the wells are there might have been a reduction in the production, however it also depends on the inital rates quoted. Often a well comes online at a rate of ...STB/D and will be fluctuated to see its full potential and then adjusted so that it is flowing at a steady controllable rate. This is common practice and helps sustain a manageable oil rate and prevents coning of the water into the production wells.
As far as 'how many wells' just count them on a map, if they are all in the same formation one can expect that they are all producing at a similar rate +/- 10% as that is the point on a well managed production reservoir.

Taproot, you have to understand that this is due to some people holding off until the contracts are signed, there will be some reluctant people who want concrete before setting the foundations of their investment.
Obelix, it is as you say gambling but if you were told by the black jack dealer that the deck is stacked with a +75% (likely 85-90%) you would probably put a hefty amount of coin down on the table, i know I would do and from my experience with this kind of reservoir model i've basically seen the deck before and know how it plays out. which is all represented in my holding.

The problem with MATD always seems to be the amount of rabble who are too quick to man the life boats and telling others to jump the ship, the derampers are saying its an iceberg, the risk averse have de-risked and put their lifejackets on just in case. While the long term holders are sound asleep in their cabins knowing full well the Capt has everything under control and will notify and rectify everything on course to the arrival.

I think i'll be sleeping soundly and let the rabble fight over the life boats

Echo....Echo... lost more space on this board without all of the de-rampers chiming in with their tuppence.... I wonder where they have gone.

Stick to the facts gentlemen and make your money

blissful, I couldn't agree more. So many people meddling without any information or grounding to go off.
- Big assumptions are being made and its really not healthy

As an operator with assets shared between different companies we take the approach of 'We arent going to waste time answering any questions until we know ourselves how to fix the issue' - Which is highly lightly in this case. Who as a business manager gives partial step by step updates? (they have no obligation to do it either)

Everyone needs to 'keep their toys in the pram' and sit on their hands because they really aren't helping the situation. The speculation is so stupid as well, jumping to conclusions.

COS is a difficult thing to apply, exploration wells have a ceiling on their COS (i can't remember off the top of my head) but it basically limits how you can weigh your drills.
Some wells drilled in the north sea have a COS of 25% which is considered very high.
As stated if MB has said 1/3 then by all means use that for your risking profile.

*Just something to consider before people see it as a very low number/high risk (it naturally skewed to the riskier side inherently).*

This is the problem with people who know nothing about oil and gas, especially drilling... 100 days?!
Where has this number come from?
If it gets to the state where we grab a random number then use that as a basis to work out numbers, financing and plans/contingencies then i really don't see the point in wasting my breath.

Facts people, stick to the facts

at least cosmiclighning and some other have his heads screwed on straight.