Member Info for macd_91

I'll put it this way; I would be very surprised if there wasn't oil present.

You are correct on that yeah it pretty much all plays into the idea that oil is there. With it being fluvial deposition there is interbedded sand and mud which forms the source as well as the reservoir. this is a big benefit as you are pretty much guaranteed to produce oil and be able to trap it within the interbedded sand. The main issue is with the seal onto of this high (namely the fault).

With that being said, there are uncertainties involved.
-How much oil is in there?
-What is the porosity and permeability of the reservoir? (one can assume through the core studies and previous drilling this would be analogous to the typical good poroperm expected in the reservoir formation)

Im not one to put COS on things without having first hand seen a little bit more detail with bit more context, however I will say this; If i had the backing and the team I would be picking prospects like the ones highlighted in the campaign. The seismic has good resolution too, I'd be interested to see what the rock physics might show for potential DHI (direct hydrocarbon indicators) however budget wise it isn't the same as a large operator.

cosmiclightning, you are very welcome, I'm happy to help explain bits and pieces as you and others are interested and appreciate it. It also helps the board discussions for logical and contrasting views which in my opinion is what boards are all about rather than the 'he said she said' rubbish.

I'd rather everyone learns the facts and understands what we actually know and i am happy to facilitate that.

cosmiclightning, regarding your question about the seismic/reservoir modelling.

What you are looking at in that presentation slide is related to the seismic, however it is actually a topographical representation of the top reservoir. Think of it like a regular topographical land map where you have valleys and mountains. The blue is essentially representing the flanks of a topographical high. The reason this would be picked as a reservoir is because more often than not oil will be found in these structures when a proven petroleum system is present.
This isn't always the case however as there needs to be a good top seal to prevent the hydrocarbons escaping, the same with the faulting that has created the structure. Faults can potentially leak, however with proven reservoirs in the area one can assume that most of the faults are sealing in this area due to hydrothermal fluids and shale smear (fluvial sediments often have good inter-bedding with mud which acts as a seal along the faults) taking place during the rifting phase.

Hope this helps.

Rupps, they did find oil yes, however it wasn't and economically viable reservoir. Although most people would perceive this as a failure it does increase the knowledge and understanding of the reservoir model and petroleum system which in turn increases your chances for the next drill (if the results have influenced your positioning of this).
The well they drilled proved a working petroleum system therefore it was a matter of 'geological timing' the trap to seal off the oil must have happened after the oil had migrated through the targeted reservoir. (so it wasnt the result they wanted however it isn't a failure in the eyes of oil and gas exploration).

Derampers have been quite critical of this company and its plans, sometimes rightly so but a lot of the time here say and all the usual BS that likes to be churned about starts to appear always occurs on a nice rise.
This is my view however, so take it with a pinch of salt

I thought I'd take advantage of the cheap shares so I've added to my pot too sub 6p. The fundamentals are still there to support it so why not.
I'd assume this will have a nice bounce and potential double bounce when the issue gets sorted with Heron-1.

paolo111, that is a very interesting read (also nice to see someone citing sources rather than the may lots of people on here just ramble).
I imagine that Mongolia as far as mining and oil will be a bit like the wild west as they are a relatively underdeveloped country compared to many. You only need to look at places like Africa where oil contracts almost always come with a golden handshake. It's part and parcel of the business, most companies in these parts of the world have an 'entertainment' fund to deal with those sorts of things if it means an easy ride through (something MATD might not have considered having had no problems previously). As it is possible this is the case with MATD I can understand the short term loss of incentive, however depending on how long negotiations take (which wouldn't normally be too long) the issue will likely be sorted and the campaign back on track.
Even knowing these facts wouldn't prompt me to pull money out as the campaign has contingencies, one being the multiple drilling targets.

Each to their own i suppose.

GLA

Taverham, don't even get me started on that haha! Being a Scottish geologist i always get asked about it. People were worried about the Forth Road/Rail Bridge falling down from the fracking and coal seems that run underneath (which is hilarious). That is a prime example of the uneducated blocking progress.
-However this is where the gov don't want oil/gas. In the case of Mongolia its the opposite.

wallact, they will have reached that point a short time ago I'd imagine. They are telling us now yes to soften the blow with the spud of another well, however they have clearly been doing work in the background trying to resolve the issue before letting us know(7-10 days is the norm).
This is common practice in Oil and Gas, we (the company I work for) do it the whole time when an issue arises on one of our wells or rigs as we can usually sort the issue and then later say 'oh by the way we had an issue but it was sorted' rather than ensue panic when the issue first happens, that's just the logical approach. In this instance it looks like there is more to do/not just a 'on you go boys' attitude, perhaps MATD wont just roll over and go with what is being asked of them that is out of the norm... we just don't know.

Julian, I'd agree with you on the fact that they will have known about this before informing us in the RNS. I would imagine that like you have said, the authorities will have waited until the drill was in the ground and some distance has been covered so that MATD are committed to the drill and be on the back foot. Once you've started drilling you have a commitment to complete and make safe the well (hence the delay in notifying MATD to this issue).
I have to say that I have no experience drilling in other countries; however i believe that an issue like this will have come to light through a "we haven't got enough of a slice of this pie" scenario. Most agreements you'd expect to be in place already prior to drilling, if its not been an issue before it makes sense that to assume one is not needed to drill, so I wouldn't say its an oversight by MATD.

The bottom line is: What has actually changed? - Not much as for the final goal, a delay in getting there sure, which will add on another 7-14 days I'd say. You must remember the Gov want MATD to find oil so will try to help them get through this speed bump quickly.

CharlieR123, as much as I'd love to believe you on that you haven't taken into account sentiment which has a huge effect on the price. Yes we have much more potential here now but lets be realistic, there has been dilution since the 200p days and a few failed drills. That being said we are in an incredible place right now with so much potential i have invested heavily into MATD as the potential outweighs the risk by at least 10:1 in my eyes.
Being a realist i'd agree we will be shooting up upon oil discovery; from my opinion looking at the geological data it will happen. To say we were up at 200p on nothing so we should be up past that level with something without taking into account the 7 years in between is a bit silly.
I like to hope and dream as much as the next investor in here but one cant disregard the facts.
GLA

It's not too early to have oil shows depending on how much contingency was built into their estimated TD and drilling speeds. There is also the fact that with the LWD tool string they will have a good bit of jewelry on there to give a good indication of HC presence in the formation.

Also it is highly likely that drill crews upon seeing shows will buy shares pre-well test so as not to be caught up with the grey area of insider trading.

There is all to play for

Obelix, I'm not too sure about the conduct of informing investors and partners about an RNS release, your guess is as good as mine. I don't like to pretend i know what I'm talking about so I'd rather leave that to a more experienced person to answer your question. Anything rocks/oil im good for, the rest would be my assessment based upon other peoples assumptions which i don't like to do.
At the end of the day I'm a scientist and not a salesman (which is quite a rare thing on this board of late looking at the volume of de-rampers and scaremongers that are around)

flava, I'd be lying if i said i know how far it is but judging by the maps i've seen and a guesstimated distance based on the scale i'd say its pretty damn close. It's close enough that even with syn-rift movements and fracturing (in the carbonates) you'd not expect enough movement to baffle off the migration pathway.
Hope this highlights some basic geology/reservoir modelling to the masses :)

The proximity to discoveries is always good however it'll depend on the aquifer support/drive of the HC and the poro-perm of the target formation (which looks good from the coring, UV and studies carried out).
Having just re-acclimatized myself with the core images, modelling and geological setting I'd have to agree with you. Only a pessimist would say that there is going to be no oil here. The trap, seal and migration pathways all play into MATD's hands, Petro china developing blocks are all deeper than MATD's; assuming an un-baffled pathway you can pretty much draw a straight line to the Heron-1 target.

Morning Obelix, Flava. I am a fellow investor in MATD from 2016 dipping in and out depending on my view of the reservoir modelling stage and drilling stages of the campaign (av. 4.3p). I don't try to be all knowing like a lot of the self proclaimed know it all's who chime in here, but i know what i know and invest on facts rather than sentiment.
The bottom line is; the likely hood of finding oil is very high, its pretty much an appraisal well, the new seismic data and extra reservoir modelling as well as a proven hydrocarbon system make it a very strong investment. (people who state that the companies history indicates its future are either uneducated or just stupid.)
Stick to the facts and enjoy the ride.
GLA
Cheers

Obelix, the 40 days is the drilling period i.e. the estimated time taken to drill to the original planned depth. During this period when they have drilled through the target formation they can find oil, this oil however is called a 'show' and is an indication there is a hydrocarbon system (it doesn't mean there is economical oil there) . Basically once they have drilled the well they will change out the drill string and basically test the well (MATD said they are planning on using a different rig for testing). Depending on the depth it can take 15-25 days id say for a well test to be run if they are rigging up a new rig.
(I'm a geologist)
Hope this helps
GLA

Its all about the baby steps, a steady rise to the RNS is far more appealing than a rushed frantic approach that we've seen in the past... despite what the rampers and de-rampers think

Tomspinner, your logic is so flawed its a little bit embarrassing.

What you are basically saying is that no matter what anyone does no matter how much more information or help they get, they can never achieve something unless they have achieved it before? ...sounds like a good lesson to teach your kids.

On a more direct note as a petroleum geologist myself, the amount of reservoir models and seismic they have gathered and analogous information they have for nearby fields is pretty overkill (as in they have more information than most do when drilling wells in proven areas in the North Sea for instance). There is always going to be a degree of failure involved but playing with a deck heavily stacked in your favor is certainly worth putting the money down.

bigbench, do you re-write the same thing every single day or do you copy and paste it?

It is quite comical watching the continual beating of the dead horse for price predictions and when they are wrong 'good time to top up' quotes start raining down on deaf ears..... think I'll grab my umbrella.

Remember kids;
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result" - Einstein