Member Info for M20ASH

Or somebody said beetlejuice three times perhaps?

Hi Joe, ha ha! Challenge accepted. If I were a betting man, I'd say it'll probably be 2-3 years before the market fully cotton's on i.e. when the potential of Tavsan and 50,000 oz per annum and dividend payments become a reality and the pipeline demonstrates continuity.
However, if the company continues to perform as it currently is and the increasing profitability and asset portfolio is reflected in the share price, I would expect increased PI interest and institutional investors starting to look for a position in the interim.
If it happens sooner, so be it. I won't be crying in my beer!!
Cheers, Ash

Evening all, some good posts today and good to see so much positivity. Starting to think that momentum will start to build over the next 6 months or so with ongoing updates on drilling & resource plus news on Tavsan, Kizilcukur, Salinbas & Cyprus, all culminating with the full year results, if we get a further 10 years from Kiziltepe, Tavsan coming on stream in say 2 years with 10 years plus a faster track on the rest of the portfolio, I wonder how long it will take the market to cotton on? Now, if I were a betting man.....
Cheers, Ash

Not forgetting what sits under the cap at Arzu Central between the two potential deeper resources at Arzu North and South.
Cheers, Ash

Hi VanVan, considering attending, but I only have a spare half day’s holiday between now & the end of the year. Will have to look at the logistics of getting a train up to the smoke from Bristol so it probably means that the evening presentation is the only option, which is a shame as a one to one would be good. My only concerns with that is the amount of information they can disclose and after outing Venus Minerals as the potential target, I might be as welcome as a pork pie at a Turkish wedding (no offence intended).
Any further drilling results would be good, but it now seems unlikely we will get a resource update by year end. Also, agree that news on Kepez and a sale of Kizilcukur into the JV would be good, as they both have higher grade deposits that will help sustain current output levels and sales, deferring the requirement to increase capacity, bearing in mind that the drilling results and resource upgrade may also enhance what we already know.
I am sure that the BoD have this all in hand and will update the market as and when they are able to.
Cheers, Ash

Hi CK, understood re current capacity and given your estimated numbers on the current stockpile and contained grade plus my numbers on gold produced and in circuit gives a great deal of comfort on sales through Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. What we don't know as yet is how production from Derya, Arzu North and Banu will affect average grades and output - the last resource update that gave a clear indication of in pit grades was the one produced in 2010 by Tetra Tech and much has happened since then. The expected resource upgrade is, therefore, key to this assessment.
My question is that, if the processing is at full capacity and grades decline, at what point does a decision need to be made regarding additional capacity, in order to maintain output and sales at expected levels, given that, as I understand things, Turkish mining law requires a further EIA to be submitted before capacity can be increased - see the section on Environmental Impact Assessment in the article below, which states "An EIA must also be carried out every time the capacity or the production of the facility is changed."
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/4-616-5262?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1#co_anchor_a880795
I believe this is only required in respect of the additional capacity, but does it involve further baseline studies, what is the cost of and lead time on commissioning additional capacity i.e. a second ball mill, etc?
Cheers, Ash

More predictive text, I suspect!

Hi CK, that looks like a lot of work, so thank you. No time to look at it this evening as we're out to watch the Bluetones play a gig, but I will look at it in more depth tomorrow.
Cheers, Ash

Sorry, can’t believe the predictive text put Bennie rather than Benjie! Damn iPhones!!

Hi Bennie, now there’s a straightforward question and you’re asking an accountant to give a straightforward answer! We’re not as bad as politicians, mind (there’s the Bristolian coming out!), but there’s a few possible scenarios, given that production costs will relate to volumes of ore processed, grades will decline requiring higher volumes to be processed for the same amount of gold and then other costs of sale will relate directly to the gold output.
I will give it some thought and maybe come up with a few scenarios, assuming certain grades and current production capacity. Leave it with me for now.
I would also appreciate some dialogue with Cornishknocker as you have worked out some values for the current ore stockpile and average grade as it would be really helpful, if I could understand how you have arrived at these - it is the last part of my understanding of mine throughput that, hopefully, will enable me to project output and sales a lot more accurately.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Benjie
Per the link below
https://1drv.ms/x/s!Art3fOvTbZE8sgOmTTELQk9jqVqv?e=PCHcPC
It should give you an idea of the other costs - amortisation of mine capital costs, interest, administration costs, plus the cash cost is not an all in cost as there are State Rights of 2.5% plus Net Smelter Royalties and other costs of sale not necessarily included in the cash cost of production.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Joe
From the recent interims RNS - 'We strive to continue to deliver on this year's exceptional progress, through continued production and exploration success, as well as seeking new development opportunities within and outside of Turkey. As previously noted, we are in the process of diversifying our strategy to include another project in a country other than Turkey. Consequently, we look forward to making an announcement in due course concerning our interests in an exploration and development portfolio in Cyprus, upon which we have been conducting due diligence work during the last two years.'
Very much in their sights, which is why I have been researching to find out what exactly they are looking at....
Cheers, Ash

Hi Willowman, not a fan of Harry then!
I think I have found the final piece of the jigsaw - Venus Minerals. This was the subsidiary of Oxiana (now OZ Minerals) that Semarang acquired a 95% holding of in 2004 and then sold as Eastern Mediterranean Minerals (Cyprus) Ltd (EMM) to EMED in 2005 (although the AIM admission announcement suggests that it was bought directly from Oxiana - tut tut!). I note that goodwill of £585,299 was written off immediately on acquisition.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=200602131515513285Y
The remaining 5% was acquired by EMED from Hellenic Mining in January 2015 for 7,500 Euros.
https://atalayamining.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/165778_emed_annual_report_final.pdf - see note 15
In August 2015, EMED sold 90% of EMM back to Semarang for 100,000 Euros retaining 10% with an option to either contribute 10% of project expenditure should a bankable feasibility study of any discovery recommend commencement of mining or convert its 10% equity to a 1.5% NSR.
https://atalayamining.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/ATALAYA-2016-vfinal-3C.pdf - see note 21
In September this year, EMM had its name changed to Venus Minerals (Cyprus) Limited.
https://opencorporates.com/companies/cy/HE98178
Here is the Venus Minerals presentation issued in October.
https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/embed_code/key/uSs2FFMJsWQQ6N
Take a look at page 5 of the presentation and see if you recognise a name......
Cheers, Ash

Hi Paul, not necessarily. As I said there a number of possibilities including a future NSR and a funded drilling campaign rather than cash or shares.
A bit more research on Atalaya Mining Plc has uncovered the fact that it now owns only 10% of Eastern Mediterranean Minerals Limited (EMM), which owns exploration licences in Cyprus. The other 90% was re-acquired by Semarang Enterprises Limited from EMED Mining (now renamed Atalaya Plc) in 2015 so the Atalaya website page I previously provided a link to may be out of date.
Even more interesting is that Harry Anagnostaros-Adams of KEFI Minerals is also a director and shareholder of EMM and Semarang and originally set up EMED, I believe. Given Ariana's relationship with KEFI, might this be more than coincidence?
https://www.eastmedminerals.com/
http://cy-check.com/semarang-enterprises-limited/207889.html
The information on the EMM website indicates that they have spent about $5m in exploration costs and have identified drilling targets so if this is the play, it may not involve a major initial outlay that either impacts cash available for dividend payments or requires share dilution.
I am sure all will be revealed in due course....
Cheers, Ash

Evening all, whilst contemplating what may lie ahead, I started thinking about Cyprus and obviously without knowing exactly what this might entail, thoughts turned to how an acquisition or buy-in might be funded. Lots of possibilities and preferences no doubt. Something to think about as, whilst there may be a degree of excitement about the potential, no one so far as I know, either here or on the ADVFN board has posed this question so far....
Cheers, Ash

No worries John, I have a copy saved of the original, but I think i will use the amended version to incorporate my workings on the ore stockpiles, as it makes sense to see the movement in processed gold and ore stockpiles. I will update this as we go forwards as well so that we all have a clearer idea of what is in reserve to enhance the next quarters results, but I will probably keep as a separate spreadsheet to the forecasts as combining the two is more than I can get my head round right now!
Cheers, Ash

P.S. on the subject of tailings, I think this requires a separate process, but like you, I’m no expert. Maybe, as the potential recovery, say 40%, builds up, there will be some more thoughts on how to exploit this.
Cheers, Ash

Apologies for the usual typos!

Hi John, with regards to Ariana fatigue, it does seem a bit like that. No doubt LTH in both EUA and AMC felt the same way until recent events. I’m optimistic our time will come, but right now it’s understandable that PI’s & traders will follow the money.
Not sure whether their decision is right as EUA are losing big money producing at Kytlim and I’m not sure that the ‘resource’ they have is either convertible to reserves or economically mineable. Worth reading a bit about the geology of PGE/PGM deposits and the difference between sulphide-rich deposits, which have high concentrated PGE/PGM deposits, albeit mainly at depth, and low sulphide deposits, which may be high in volume, but not necessarily economic. Time will tell. AMC are not even in production so just because the region is supposedly going to receive increased investment guarantees zilch for the company.
Meanwhile, we are invested in a producing company that looks as though it will at least double last year’s profit this year and hopefully, the share price and I’ll settle for that right now. 2-3 years down the line, things look very promising. Every dog has it’s day!
On the subject of mine throughput, I have amended some of your calcs as they were referencing the wrong cells in the spreadsheet. I aiming to start work on the ore stockpile. There are some numbers I can use, but more assumptions may be necessary, including an allowance for wet ore. If I can tie that down with the processing throughput, then I may be able to adapt the model to take this into account so we can better understand how current capacity restrictions with one ball mill will limit production as grades decrease and put a timeline on when a second ball mill will be required to maintain output levels, given that the higher grades at Kizilcukur and Kepez can be introduced among the way to maintain higher grades as those at Kiziltepe reduce. We just need to be conscious of the fact that an increase in capacity has both a cost c. $1.5 million and the requirement of an additional EIA.
Cheers, Ash

Hi Paul, lots to try and get through this evening or what little there is left of it.
Much of the electric supply in Turkey is state-owned & each province seems to have their own supplier e.g in Aydin province where I have my apartment on Didim/Altinkum is run by Aydem. You either set up a DD through your bank or queue up to pay the bills at the local office in cash!
I believe that Balikesir province have their own electric company. So it’s not like the UK with it’s competition rules whereby you can switch from one provider to another through Go Compare, etc.
Interestingly, Balikesir province, where Kiziltepe is, has the highest investment levels in Turkey of renewable energy sources e.g wind turbines.
Red diesel is generally available for marine use, but you have to buy a lot, fill up your yacht and then bugger off. It’s customs controlled and not appropriate for use by Ariana.
Lastly, I am not aware of any subsidies within the investment incentives - see the link in my previous post in reply to VanVan.
#Googleismyfriend
Cheers, Ash