The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Who Mr Wag will it be huge for ? Do tell ! - with full detail and numbers
This fellow emar called himself a 'savvy' investor a few months back ! Also believed the unlamented Yaki' s muddled fantasies. Speaks for itself.
What sad nonsense. Have you done any of the maths ? Have you followed the discussion over the last three years ? Was the share decline brought about by paid de-rampers ? They must have made a lot of money !
In my experience an updated resource estimate that has been anticipated for many months doesn't lead to any share boost at all. In this case, I would think anything below +70% will be considered disappointing. In my experience also, exploration share prices never anticipate 'hopes' for a bid. They only respond on bids themselves. Investors here must resign themselves to a very long haul. BP and Newcrest will have agreed between themselves to let Solg get on with it (and spend its own shareholders' funds) before they step in again.
Magnet et al. Note that Sepco has specifically said (as reported a long while ago by LC) that it is NOT investing in MCPP.
There is not the slightest reason for Sepco to view Kibo as an 'investment' either, but only to provide funds to prop it up so as to keep going and provide Sepco with outlets for its kit. Thats why it will want as large a shareholding (and board influence) in Kibo as possible, but at the lowest possible cost. That means subscribing at a low price. In effect it will be paying a finders fee, which will be peanuts compared with the profits it makes supplying and installing kit. The effect of that will be more dilution for current shareholders, for whom Sepco won't care a fig. They're a commercial outfit ! - and wiley Chinese to boot !.
Magnet. GE agreed $400m as 20% of the capex for the Lamu 'project'. They were not going to 'buy' it from Lamu's sponsor. Not understanding the difference between the 'project' (eg MCPP) and its 'sponsor' (eg Kibo) has been the source of enormous misunderstanding (and irrational share 'valuation') here. I had thought it all laid to rest by now.
Sir G - Sepco will not be 'buying' a bigger stake (as in the market) They will be subscribing for new shares - and negotiating the price with the company. Not the same as buying in the market and will not affect the share price (depending what it is). There is no reason for Sepco to invest more in Kibo than to keep its lights on, and certainly not sensible to push up the shares if they wanted it as an 'investment' - which is doubtful..
My thoughts Nojy ? - What's the relevance of being 'loyal' to what is an inanimate 'investment' where your only aim should be to make a profit ? There will be an objective 'value' out there which, hopefully, the shares will hit one day, at which time you should bale out. So many 'investors' think a share is like a football team that will respond to their 'urging on'. No wonder most pi's lose money !
Apologies if posted before. Report was some days ago
"A tight copper market may be set to get a lot tighter, if a report this week from the world’s biggest miner of the metal is any indication.Santiago-based Codelco posted the lowest quarterly copper production this year in the third quarter, according to Chile copper agency Cochilco. The company reported declines across all of its mines in September as ore grades fell an average of 5 percent in the first nine months of the year.
The decline in ore grades compounds supply troubles after a commodities price slump that ended in 2016 made miners skittish about expanding their operations in Chile, the world’s largest copper supplier. At the same time, mounting trade tensions are prompting mining companies to delay big expansion projects amid uncertainty about the outlook for demand.
The International Copper Study Group forecasts a production deficit of 90,000 metric tons this year, more than double the shortfall forecast in April. Lower grades were partly offset by a 2 percent increase in metal recovery, but output for the first nine months of the year was still 41,000 tons lower than in 2017, Codelco said in an emailed response to questions.
“Companies need to cover themselves and generate investment programs to expand their capacity and mitigate the ore-grade decline," Cesar Perez-Novoa, an analyst at BTG Pactual in Santiago, said by phone on Thursday. “Otherwise, the depletion of resources over the next ten years will be high.”
Codelco is investing $36 billion over the next ten years to upgrade its aging mines to compensate for the decline in copper grades and to maintain production levels, Perez-Novoa said.
I think most on here are forgetting that the majors will be expecting that by the time anything is produced from Cascabel, the copper price will be considerably higher than now, or as will be assumed in the PEA. That will be because world copper production might be on the decline (despite Oyu Tolgoi etc) and to keep their own lights on they will be biassed towards wanting to replace their own resources and to assuming those higher prices if only because the gearing effect of higher copper price will be very large. That's why I'm using all my pennies to add.
So 'Sleepydave' has been cross-examining 'experts' has he ? - and he has a 'professional' life ! Yet he hasn't had the wit to notice the sleight of hand by LC in claiming to 'build value' when the value is blatantly only in 'size' of Kibo and his salary, rather than in increased share price. But that, of course, would need the tiny bit of intelligence and a little bit of back-of-envelope calculation (not to mention professionalism) to work out that there must be much more cost involved for -eg bots - to explain the cheap price - with the implication for yet more share dilution. Sleepy's 'cross examination' standard is obviously well below that employed even by Mr Plod in asking ''ello ello ello - Wots going on 'ere then ?"
Sorry Sleepy, but I've been following, researching, and writing for the institutions for more than 13 years, about many (over 70) aim mining companies. I have to say that Kibo has never given investors any of the level of information about its projects that other companies overwhelmingly do. For Bots, you have to ask why no-one else would buy it for such a give-away price.
Any other company would have told shareholders the results of the PFS. It helps them evaluate the project's, and therefore the share's, value. LC never does. Maybe something to do with the fact that he only paid - in an open market process - only some £11m for a project 'at the same stage as MCPP'. Work it out !
If you took the trouble, Nelson, to look back through all past posts, you'd know I made up all past losses in Kibo, and more ! And you ?
Its always a good idea to look at a long term trend ! Tells you something about the management. Kibo was equivalent of 45p on listing back in 2010. Allowing for the 1:15 consolidation in 2013 (necessary after the Mszuri shareholders whose assets LC brought in - all sold out - make of that what you will) the shares have bee in steady fall (except for 2016 spike)
Excellent Not Amused. Certainly won't amuse the clappies ! (That's if they even get the allusion)
yes JD - Do the maths ! £500m was based on the 'project' NPV, which doesn't 'belong' to NCCL or to anyone until $1bn has been spent to build it. That 'analyst' was repeating the same schoolboy howler as did the late unlamented broker to the lamentable Tanzania project we've been watching in awed fascination as of a slow car crash. Do the proper maths - please !
DSaurez ! - It tends to save time ! (and money)