Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
All these sorts of shares always spike on what the naive think is 'transformative' news. In fact it is usually just one small step on a long and winding path. Oracle LOOks very cheap on what could be an eventual share in a large project. But it wont deliver until complete in at least 4 years time even if financial close now, and even then depends whether all partners have agreed a dividend, which is all the income Oracle will get. Before then who knows what share dilution will be necessary to keep the lights on and the show on the road. And everything will depend on financial close and whatever profit the project will make on the (low) power tariff Pakistan will want. Its because they know all these hurdles, that the savvy take profits whenever the unsavvy drive up the spikes. The most unsavvy notion on here is that production starts in June ! It doesn't. What has been reported is for the other Thar projects. And the 'larger than Saudia reserves' relates to the whole of Thar, of which Oracle only has a tiny part. They don't say DYOR for nothing.
There are other coal projects in Thar that are well ahead of Oracle including a power station almost complete. Building a power station takes at lest three years - so I suggest you rely on better research than twits on twitter.
PS. Brokers who have provided 'valuations' are wrong (I have been in this market much longer than them) These projects are unusual and not well understood. And the only brokers who have puffed 'targets' are in the pay of the companies who want to sustain their shares as high as possible so they can raise the funds they are going to need.to keep going for the long time these projects take to come to fruition or start to pay dividends to eg GCM.
I didn't say GCM has made a 'bad deal'. It has made (is still making )the sort of deal that it, at this stage of its existence it CAN make. What I am saying is that you, and almost all posters on here, don't seem to understand that a 'project' such as the one to develop a power station, is totally different to GCM itself (the one you are invested in). GCM has got together the licenses etc, and a PLAN, to exploit the coal mine it has (no customers as yet) by developing a power station to use its coal, ad that project will be a different company (probably unlisted) to GCM, who has nothing- no funds - to develop it itself, so needs to get together large contractors and investors to build and provide the funds. If its lucky. it will make a sort of 'commission' on top - in recognition of the work it has done - but that's not guaranteed. In no way will it or its shareholders ever receive the 'value' (ie the cost) of its power station project. The profits will go to those who put up the money. Whether there is enough over from the profits to pay some sort of 'commission or 'fee' to GCM, or give it a 'free' share in the project, depends on whether the power station is profitable enough to pay the funders the return they want for taking the risk of putting up $1.6bn to build a power station in a risky developing country. I could go on. But I need a rest.
hope2 etc I don't like to see companies fleecing naive private investors by neglecting to tell them how their company is (not) going to achieve the sky-high share prices their ignorance of how project companies work leads them into. I've been right on every single occasion.And you won't find any professional investor buying into these sorts of companies at this early stage.
Hope again. You appear to know nothing of how these projects work. Once built it will belong to equity partners in proportion to the capital or work they have put in no more, no less. Go and do some research, and look at the way punters in the other ctp plays have learned the realities the hard way. ORCP's latest RNS is the clearest and most accurate description of how it works by any of them so far. If you think otherwise, your logic must be questionable.
Well it seems Compo would have been right to say stay well away from Kat at 6p,and to stay even further away from Kibo at anything. And how wrong was that hoochraddled hairy Scottish person in his wee but-an-ben w'i a reeking lumb ?
You've only got the 'right' to those %ages if you (GCM) shells out for those %ages of the total project cost - $6bn ??. As of now, those %ages relate to the very tiny value of what has been spent so far. ORCP's 12% of the eventual project shows you how these are calculated. Do you really think Power China and partners are going to put in c$1.5bn, and banks another $4.2bn, and GCM will walk away with 80% of the income.
Wimb - I meant that publishing the PPA won't enable you or me or anyone to work out the project's profitability. The best guide (although with holes) to that is the2017 IBFS figures for irr's, around which the PPA will have been negotiated. That has to be set against the shares that will be in issue when first dividend is paid to Kibo - for MCPP not before about 2024 even if all goes well and the majority partners (maybe Sepco and GE) agree , and will be much greater than at present, so reducing the value to shareholders. The NPV even if LC gives an updated figure) is no guide to the income Kibo will receive because it does not show how income in the first 12 years will be more than halved by the loan repayments.On top of that we don't yet know how much Kibo will pay to increase its share above the approx 19% it has earned already. (See ORCP's announcements about how that works). If the shares are pushed up by the clappies when PPA or SML or anything else is announced, I'd cut some of my losses if I were you, because the price won't hold when all the sums are done.
Wimb - the Bod have known me for much longer than you've been here. Re hard numbers I should have added that PPA won't give you any numbers to work out a share value, nor the project's profitability. In any case a PPA has rather more elements to it than the basic tariff. Doh!fort's analyst hadn't a clue of the complexity of the P&L account or of all the other factors affecting it. The best guide at present is the Jan 2017 IBFS figures, all explained in detail on the proper research thread.
Wimb. The solid number you should have taken from your chat with Schaffalittzky is that, as chairman he only has 0.3% of Kibo shares worth £40,000 or so and has never added at these low prices, while as chairman of Eurasia Mining he has been adding consistently to his 3.2% holding worth £340,000 or so. So do you suppose he might know more about Haneti's worth than you do ?