George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
For the LTHs, I think today has been very healthy. The SP was IMO getting to the point where clinical validation and obtaining a CE mark was being priced in and that on the day they're announced there would have been a morning spike, profits taken and the SP taken back down. To support the MCAP we would need to see orders to retest the high - just my opinion. What today has done is shake out a lot of weak and unresearched holders, which means we have a better base for when the news flow arrives.
Bring it on. I can't wait to see the stick those pricks on twitter get (Snoop, MB etc.) when all is revealed.
I can't find that code either and also hold via a platform.
The platform are the custodian, which is why when you look at the shareholder list of company's, it often shows HL or AJ Bell as one of the largest shareholders when this is just the combined value of the shares held on their platform. So maybe it means Avacta will inform the platform electronically and they in turn notify us via the platform.
Vicente’s amended post is correct in that once you reach the LTA it often makes sense to crystallise. The reason for this is that the LTA is legislated to increase in line with CPI however you would of course expect investment returns to outpace CPI. As you aren’t crystallising benefits in excess of the LTA, there is no LTA charge and you are preventing the compound effect of investment returns outpacing CPI creating / adding to an LTA issue.
Assuming you remain in drawdown then the next time those benefits are tested against the LTA is at age 75 and the charge is simply based on the amount you ‘designated to drawdown’ and the value at age 75. For example, you reach the LTA of £1,073,100 and crystallise your entire fund, this releases the 25% tax free cash and then £804,825 is designated to drawdown. The LTA used at 75 is based on the difference between £804,825 and the value at 75.
Withdrawals aren’t factored into the calculation so the charge at 75 is effectively an optional tax i.e. do you pay the 25% LTA charge and leave the money in drawdown or pay income tax on withdrawals.
One caveat to this strategy is the TFC is then in your estate for IHT purposes but if you’re in reasonable health and married then it would (hopefully) be a while before your estate is tested against IHT and you would have time to put appropriate planning in place to mitigate IHT.
Something else worth considering is ‘small pot lump sums’. Each person is allowed 3 x 10k small pots in their lifetime. Small pots aren’t tested against the LTA. £30,000 x 55% tax is £16,500 tax avoided.
Uncrystallised benefits are tested against the LTA at 75. TFC isn’t available from benefits in excess of your LTA. Having paid the 25% LTA charge the benefits remain in drawdown. These benefits can be passed on to beneficiaries through beneficiary drawdown. They are taxed at the beneficiary’s marginal rate of income tax but beneficiary drawdown can be used to control the tax point i.e. they decide when to withdraw from drawdown rather than taking benefits as a lump sum and paying income tax on the entire fund in one sitting.
If you die pre 75 with uncrystallised benefits in excess of the LTA then the 25% tax charge is payable but your beneficiaries can take benefits tax free.
The 25% LTA charge at 75 isn’t ideal but more favourable than paying a 55% LTA charge having taken the excess as a lump sum and then having said benefits in your estate for IHT so potentially liable to another 40% IHT when you die (a cheery topic I know).
In terms of the percentage of LTA that is used, it is based on the value of the crystallisation and the prevailing LTA at the time I.e. if you crystallised 800k when the LTA was £1mil then you would have used 80% of your LTA. If you crystallise another 200k when the LTA is £1.2m then you would use another 16.66% (200k / 1.2m). You then of course have 3.34% of your LTA remaining.
Anyway, off to make Sunday dinner.
I normally have to do this Monday to Friday but here I am doing it on a Sunday too.
For most people a blend of pension and ISA is sensible. From a tax perspective, pensions are far more tax efficient however the trade-off is that you have to lock your money away until age 55. If you’re over 55 then generally pensions are the better option.
Simple example, not factoring in investment returns – you have £80 a month to save. Put the money into an ISA and you can access £80 tax free. If a BR Tax payer puts £80 into a pension then it is grossed up to £100 with tax relief. When it comes to withdrawing post 55, £25 is tax free and £75 is taxable at your marginal rate so if a 20% tax payer then you have received the £25 tax free plus £60 net of income tax so £85.
If you’re a HR tax payer then it only costs £60 to get £100 into a pension as you get 40% tax relief. BR tax payer when withdrawing means £60 in and £85 out net.
Then factor in that pensions are outside of your estate for IHT (some ISA’s are depending on the underlying investments) and the effect of compound growth on a larger sum i.e. the amount post tax relief and pensions look even more attractive.
20k limit p.a. on ISA’s and 40k annual allowance on pensions. With pensions however, you need to have ‘relevant earnings’ up to the level of the personal contribution if it is to be fully tax relievable. Alternatively pay a contribution via your business and offset corporation tax, avoid subsequent dividend taxation when extracting those profits etc.
In terms of the lifetime allowance (LTA), it’s only payable when you crystallise benefits in excess of your available LTA and only applies to the excess and not the whole fund. i.e. you have a pension fund of £1.2million, crystallise the whole fund when the LTA is £1,073,100 then tax is paid on the £126,900 difference and not the whole £1.2m.
There are various ways to reduce the LTA tax charge on any excess so in reality very few people will pay 55% tax (generally those who don’t take advice) but I’m even boring myself now so will stop there.
I think it's fairly obvious that AS is targeting a much wider market than just the UK. Do you think the EU would allow a CE mark based on a UK government department saying it's all ok? Obviously not and it sounds like they aren't using the evaluation method required to get a CE mark i.e. clinical samples.
Same here especially with Nigerian oil round news due anytime now.
Having access to traf and Dubai funding means new deal news could also come anytime. These guys haven't made finance available without having a good idea about how it will be used.
The Superdielectrics shares are worth a large part of the mcap alone and then there's the increased revenue from Aje. Seems far too cheap to me even if the slow news flow is frustrating.
The placing talk is just rumour and each time there has been a placing it's been at a significant premium to the current SP in any case
Wolves, the price action in NCYT, ODX, Abingdon etc. has followed a similar pattern to Avacta so in your words has also been 'ugly'. Someone has to make the tests for goodness sake and the only reason the SP is drifting in each stock is simply because nobody truly knows which companies are involved.
All the evidence points to Avacta being involved. I can't be bothered listing all the reasons why again as they have been posted numerous times before. Some PIs swing from bull to bear in 5 minute intervals (not you Wolves, you're always the latter). PI's need for constant reassurance is hilarious.
If you've done the research you will be sitting confidently, if not annoyed that it's taken longer than expected. If you're feeling nervous then do the research.
Can't believe Deeks got away with explaining the issues with pcr and false positives ie too sensitive, to then provide details on his own study suggesting Innova missed 97% of positive cases. Innova was compared with pcr but those testing positive on pcr weren't infectious but no allowance was made.
Yes, the sensitivity of the Innova test is too low and will miss positives where the person is infectious but how many of that 97% weren't infectious? Absolutely shocking journalism.
How sad and lonely do you have to be MB to troll a BB of a share in which you're not invested? You must flip between the LSE board and p orn hub because there's no chance you have a Mrs. Why don't you go and stroke your 7 cats. That's as close as you'll get to a pussy.
When ODX are manufacturing Avacta test, what if we find a cheaper manufacturer?
Thought I'd give it a go in Dohs absence
Thanks all for the posts.
EmS - I queried with the company a few weeks ago whether funding and converting offtakes from MOU to binding were dependent on the ML being secured and received the following reply.
"While it’s not critical it puts us in a better position to quickly implement the project which is one of the main interests of a funding partner and also of potential off take partners.
We are progressing with some of the other areas like selection of an EPC contractor and test work in china with them in the meantime, so we don’t get behind in those areas."
IMO, once the ML is secured then the rest will fall into place shortly afterwards. I've been holding these shares for years and i'm very confident that 2021 is going to be a great year for ACP. GLA
https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1336710797117059072?s=20
I hope he's right and we do get s&s any day now. I'd take before Christmas myself. Let's face it everyone left holding is going to see it through to seeing the s&s results whenever they arrive. Could do without the uncomfortable waiting personally
I'm equally surprised that the SP is not higher than it is currently. IMO this is due to the market not expecting imminent news and the NASDAQ listing being c.2-4 months away. No doubt the SP will creep up as we get closer and excitement builds. There could be a surprise RNS at any time of course with detailed data on the phase II Blautix trial (and hopefully better PR) / partner to take it forward etc. so I am holding on tightly.
A lot is made of the Seres valuation relative to the valuation of 4D. If you read the article 4D posted on twitter today, link below, Seres are mentioned and the key difference of course is that Seres have had a successful phase III trial demonstrating great efficacy, safety profile etc. After the phase III results were released, their SP went up nearly 500%! It was NASDAQ listed though. 4D could produce similarly successful phase III results and if still on aim the SP would likely halve as most investors wouldn't understand them!
https://www.nature.com/articles/d43747-020-01178-x
Seriously though, read the article if you haven’t seen it already. It mentioned how it hasn't always been plain sailing at Seres. They released some phase II results that the market didn't like and the SP dropped significantly. They used data from the phase II trial to better design their phase III trial..... Basically they increased the dosage 10 fold, the results were great and now their mcap is 20 times that of 4D.
The similarities are startling..... issue phase II results the markets don't like (Blautix phase II results were excellent BTW but you get the point), use data to design phase III......
The potential here is staggering but re the current SP that many seem obsessed with, IMO you can get a very good sense of sentiment on BB's and twitter and to me sentiment towards 4D feels positive right now and there is a lot of support, particularly at this price. If sentiment is positive and still the SP goes down could it be that South Ocean and / or Richard Griffiths are still offloading? The last shareholding RNS’s have been major shareholders reducing their position. Sentiment can’t offset a major holder offloading. Just my opinion and I'm always interested to hear other views.
To be honest I really don’t care about short term SP movements because there is no way I would sell my shares without seeing phase III oncology results / IBS Blautix results. Would you having suffered so much volatility to date and checked the SP through winced eyes? I’m here for the “10 / 20 bagger”. Yes this is a high risk share and there are never any guarantees of course but the team at 4D are world leading and have plenty of skin in the game. They are backing themselves big time and they know what they need to do IMO, which is why I really like these odds.
I’ve had a couple of shares spike recently so have added a few more here. My New Year’s resolution is to stop buying 4D shares but I’m not a quitter!
Having read the RNS, watched the avacta video and directors talk interview several times, the exciting part for me is BAMS, which is where all yesterday's positivity stemmed. I think many have been sidetracked by the change to nasal from saliva based testing for the LFT (including me).
In the DT interview AS explains how we are in the middle of clinical evaluation for BAMS at 4 different sites (as we already knew). Once the data is received Avacta will be CE marking the product themselves so that could happen very soon and commercialisation is well underway. AS did mention there may be tweaks but I cannot for one minute think they will be tweaks that required the evaluation to be repeated. The opportunity here is huge for obvious reasons ie cost and speed relative to PCR, new mass spec centres, global opportunity etc.
The LFT will hopefully follow soon afterwards and again the key part is that they can CE mark the product themselves for clinical use. That means sales can start whilst self / home use is being validated and manufacturing capacity is scaled up to meet demand.
I wish we hadn't spent so long messing around with Cytiva on the saliva based LFT but worse case we've lost a few month's revenue.
Then of course there is the Oncology therapeutic side where the opportunity is mind boggling.
It's important to take stock (no pun intended) after days like today and having done that I'm over today and excited again about the future.
It could have been that but there were a lot of influential people on twitter talking about 4D this afternoon. Many saying they were waiting for an entry in the 80s (the gap fill chat that has been plaguing us for weeks) and that it doesn't look like happening so they were happy to be in at low 90s. No doubt the herd then started piling in afterwards.
This should help turn sentiment and attract the interest of more investors. Absolute no brainer at these prices. Glad to have been adding on the 'covid dip'. As mentioned below, hopefully more people now realise 4D is not a covid stock.