Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
I agree StarBright and I hope you're right SDon (Avacta is my largest AIM holding by a long way). The macro environment right now is not favourable to put it mildly. There have been numerous NASDAQ listed biotechs that have released fantastic P2 data that included comprehensive efficacy data and the spike didn't hold.
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make PL as I didn't say that tolerable and activating would be a disaster. I was merely saying that IMO it won't get us to £3 PS i.e. £1bn MCAP. I can give you endless examples and reasons why (as I did Rah on Twitter and then he blocked me as he does most when he doesn't like the answer) but frankly I can't be bothered. Ultimately I hope I'm wrong but we aren't getting to the lofty price predictions quoted without a buyout or significant licencing deal, which i'm sure will come at some point which is why I'm happy to wait, as I have for nearly 3 years already.
Are we not arguing over semantics here? Evaluating anti tumour activity (secondary objective of P1A) is measuring efficacy but yes it won't be the full data package.
If all we get is the drug is well tolerated and is activating then I'm afraid to say that all those expecting a SP >£3 will be disappointed.
That was the part of the RNS that stood out to me too Wiggly. Has anyone ever seen a company organise a presentation of P1 data that includes KOL's? I'm sure it has happened previously but the point is that it's very rare - what they're going to present might just be revolutionary otherwise why would they be there? They're there so that the fund managers and potential investors appreciate what is being presented by independent KOL's rather than just hearing another investment pitch from yet another biotech. Why would those KOL's want / agree to be there? Very exciting times indeed.
HZM always ticked every investment criteria with the exception of shareholder alignment. Jeremy Martin takes his 400k pa salary and is not disadvantaged by screwing long term loyal SHs. Lesson learnt
A lot being made of the CLN but the conversion price is 17p, which based on the current SP works out very favourably for existing investors. Dilution is never ideal but too much being made of it surely considering what that dilution has helped deliver?
"poised to take Avacta to the next level in its evolution as a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company" - I just love Fiona's confidence. Given her vast experience and incredible CV, things are looking very rosy indeed.
Thanks Hurst and yes Doggy, the SP is frustrating. Just an observation on that (hopefully without doing a Wynbore) - today's volume traded was the lowest since pre covid. There aren't many sellers at this level and when MM's have dropped the price into the 40's, buyers have flooded in. The point I'm making, badly, is that it won't take many buyers and / or shorts closing for this to rebound strongly.
Dr Smith mentioned in the last interview that Avacta could licence AVA6k or the whole PreCision platform, which may have seemed surprising. He's willing to do this IMO because whilst PreCision is the "near term value driver" and its potential value is absolutely enormous, unbelievably it's not even the main event. The main event is affimers and their potential in therapeutics.
Just listen to the Vox interview again where Dr Smith discusses partnerships and the potential of affimers as therapeutics. (Skip the first 5mins or so as he talks about the LFT!). It becomes very clear why he would be happy to license the PreCision platform.
PreCision being licensed for an upfront payment and royalties would help fund the affimer platform, TMAC (both affimer and PreCision - next generation). It's going to be amazing watching the Avacta story unfold, even though it does drag on a touch.
On the subject of the SP, have you noticed how low volume has been over the past couple of trading days? There are very few sellers at this price and when the price is dropped, buyers have been flooding in. Jupiter will be aware and unable to close their short due to very low volume. The rebound in the SP could be significant. Thought I'd share the observation as currently there's little else new to discuss!
Couldn't agree more Neutronic - unbelievable entry price. Avacta isn't a binary play and there are so many multi £bn opportunities. If we have an SNG moment it will hurt badly for a temporary period but there are so many strings to the Avacta bow that I feel confident riding out any set back, as we have the CV19 LFT debacle. Even if Precision failed, which I think is now very unlikely but not certain, there are still huge opportunities. The potential of PreCision is incredible on its own but with the other opportunities we have, I'm not at all surprised that Dr Smith suggested licencing the whole PreCision platform.
If you have a spare 50 minutes as I did the other day whilst driving then I cannot recommend highly enough re-listening to the Vox interview re Avacta's licencing and partnership potential. I would summarise here but frankly the post would be an essay and I can't be arsed.
We are focussed on CV19 LFT and PreCision developments that are in Avacta's direct control and are "near term value drivers" but the wider opportunity is mind boggling. Just listen to the potential of affimers as a therapeutic (assuming proven safe in man).
The opportunity is staring anyone who can be bothered looking into it straight in the face. All you need to do is let Avacta do their job and have more patience than the twitterati trading / pump and dump crews. If you're a long term investor then the R/R from here is incredible.
Ps. skip the first 5 minutes where positive CV19 LFT developments are discussed!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgmvuj86VcA
The standard of care (SOC) changing in hospitals has really impacted the SNG results.
Bringing this back on topic. The SOC in the NHS for patients with tumours that don't express PD1 / PDL1 is chemo. Immunotherapy is only given to patients with tumours that express PD1/ PDL1 https://medlineplus.gov/lab-tests/pdl1-immunotherapy-tests/ . Not all tumours express PD1/ PDL1, which is why only 30% of patients respond to immunotherapies. They're also very expensive and is why the SOC for for cancer sufferers in the NHS is chemo.
DE in AVA6K was a crucial de-risking milestone. Initial PK data in a few months and the SP rockets. Unlike SNG's treatment, efficacy of Dox is not in question, the SOC hasn't changed and we don't require an expensive P3 trial. P3 trials account for the vast majority of clinical development costs. https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2012/04/25/how-the-fda-stifles-new-cures-part-ii-90-of-clinical-trial-costs-are-incurred-in-phase-iii/
One day Howzaty and then it will be irrelevant how high everyone's average is currently. Just need a bit of patience and I'm extremely confident it will all be worthwhile. It better had be. Tbh I've not slept well recently despite all the malbec!
Absolutely crazy. There comes a point where the price becomes completely ridiculous and we're very near that point in my view. I already had a large proportion of my portfolio in Avacta but now tempted to sell down a couple of other positions where news isn't expected in the short term to average down here. The selling has to stop at some point, Jupiter will close and the rebound will be something to behold
Got to laugh at these 20p targets based on charts, gaps and pre covid price. The company is unrecognisable from pre covid in terms of pipeline development and cash position. And these twitter accounts, Noel, Berty, Chris packitt talking to each other...... They're all Noel's accounts BTW. Most can't short Avacta, only professional traders. He keeps the Noel account and shares personal information /real pics to seem like a good guy and uses the rest for the dirty work. Shameless
Fair point vanilla but at the point when Dr Smith made the comments that rocketed the SP, do you think they were dishonest? I think that he has been genuine throughout. The SP hit an ATH after the raise so he wasn't your typical AIM CEO ramping to get a placing away. It didn't work out how he /we thought it would
We failed to commercialise the most accurate test in the world during a global pandemic and LFT shortage. All the research in the world wouldn't have predicted that which is why I can be philosophical now about a significant paper loss. If presented with the same opportunity I would make the same decision again. No matter which way you look at it, it's a monumental fail for which we are now paying the price.
Luckily we're not ODX or we would also be well and truly screwed. AVA6000 and precision is blockbuster and it will commercialise itself via a large pharma partner so we just need to ride it out. Dr Smith has obviously made mistakes but look at what he's built. He will see it through to the end. We needed a commercial ceo to make the lft work but now we need a scientist. AS leaving now would be a disaster and the SP would be in an even worse position
Well said Dave. Frankly I'm in this until the end, like most others on this board. I will exit a multi millionaire or not. It has been and will continue to be a bumpy road. Making life changing returns isn't easy, otherwise everyone would do it.
The issue with AIM is that so many investors have unbelievably short term investment horizons, which makes SPs incredibly volatile (as we all know). In my industry we aren't able to invest client money unless they can commit to investing that money for at least 5 years, preferably 7 plus and this is investing in highly diversified multi asset portfolios and not high risk individual shares like Avacta. We also reduce risk in the portfolio as the client approaches the end of their investment term to protect capital.
Investing short term increases the risk exponentially, particularly in a volatile stock as the SP may be at a low point when you need to sell (look at Robbo, who I think we all felt for - a seemingly decent bloke who lost a significant sum of money). If he could have hung around then it would be a paper loss (like most of us are sat on) rather than a crystallised loss. If I could offer some friendly advice it is, please don't invest what you cannot afford to lose or invest money that you may need to access short term.
I am very confident that Avacta will deliver in the long term but there are obviously no guarantees so have only committed money that I can 'afford' to lose. Don't get me wrong, if Avacta failed than I would be gutted but I would still be able to pay my mortgage, go on holiday, retire as planned etc. Basically nobody wants to see other posts from people like Robbo or the chap off twitter invested in ODX who have been forced to sell at a large loss or lost money they couldn't afford to lose. AIM is not the place to invest money you cannot afford to lose.
Whilst I'm confident long term, I don't know whether this is the bottom. The SP is on a downward trend based on higher than average volume, which isn't exactly bullish. We have gone from a perceived revenue generating company, through LFD sales, to a non-revenue generating company. In a period of rising interest rates and inflation, frankly that is not good, as investors will rotate to cyclical and revenue generating stocks to protect against inflation.
Expected returns from Avacta may now be lower as the LFT isn't going to provide those life changing returns in the short term or fund all of the therapeutics pipeline as we had hoped so there will likely be (IMO) licencing deals, which of course means less of the pie for Avacta. We are down >70% from our ATH though so I think it's safe to say *most* of this is priced into the SP.
So what do you do? Chase another rainbow or ride it out? My point is that if you do not need to sell and believe in the Avacta IP then all you have to do is stomach the brutal volatility to make life changing returns. We have virtually had confirmation PreCision works, so will ride it