Precisely Earthling, that's why I think there is going to be significant resistance in the 40s, and why I think the SP will be no higher than around 45p by the end of the year. Not only will that be the previous high (46p or whatever that was), but it will also be a bagger (or very close) for those who go in around the recent fundraise. Anyone expecting this to soar through from 40p to 50p will be disappointed I think as I would expect a lot of selling in that region.
I take it back. I had expected (not unreasonably, I think), that there would have been an official announcement confirming initiation of the PEA. But instead, it does appear that they are proceeding with the PEA rather under the radar, as confirmed deep into the 'notes to editor' section of recent RNSs: "The Company is currently planning further metallurgical testing and completion of an independent Preliminary Economic Assessment and Pre-Feasibility Studies at Cascabel. SolGold is investigating both high tonnage open cut and underground block caving operations, as well as a high grade / low tonnage initial underground development towards the economic development of the copper gold deposit/s at Cascabel." As you say @SavShare7, it's all very vague, and I would likewise agree that this is a good policy. As these studies are time-consuming and unpredictable, providing deadlines is highly likely to lead to egg on face, and very frustrated investors. The fact is that the BoD are probably not concerned with the SP this year. Assuming further fund raise(s) are required before a buy-out, this would happen well into 2019, and between now and then, the focus is quite rightly on delivering against an operational plan. So MRE update and PEA sometime in July / August / September, PFS sometime around March / April / May next year, and then maybe serious buy out talk next summer. In the mean time, I still think you're probably looking at an SP around 40p by the end of the year.
It is highly unlikely that the PEA would be started until after the pending resource update. This would not only make sense from an operational perspective, and to make the PEA as relevant and as (hopefully) effective in terms of value generation as everyone would like, but it's also almost certainly the case given that no official announcement of PEA commencement has been made. The PEA would then take - let's say - 4 months. That would take you through until November at the earliest, although that of course assumes the MRE is a couple of weeks away, which may or may not prove to be the case. Afterwards, the PFS could start immediately, but that would take well into next year to complete.
I think it is highly unlikely that Fortune will have had any involvement whatsoever in share disposal / warrant exercises decisions. Assuming that we are seeing Wogan closing (or having now closed) their warrant position, this will have been timed (IMO) according entirely to their own self interest, and whatever "deals" might have taken place will have been with brokers / MMs only.
I thought one of our Bushwhacker friends might not mind a link to an interesting piece from him / her on the workings of AIM. Proof if nothing else of the quality of investor we have involved in the BMN story. https://www.share-talk.com/share-news/aim-for-success-part-1-a-blog-by-aim_chaos-2/?utm_campaign=Revue%20newsletter&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_source=Weekly%20Stock%20Market%20News
http://clients2.weblink.com.au/news/pdf_1%5C01985768.pdf?dm_i=2QYA,PZM5,57MDBI,2ND0D,1
@solgfinger2 - "We plan to immediately follow this maiden MRE up with initiation of a PEA (Preliminary Economic Assessment) of the deposit at Alpala, towards commencement of the PFS (pre-Feasibility Study) later in 2018." This is the latest mention I could find of PEA or PFS in any RNS (happy to be corrected if I have missed something). This comment came from the MMRE publication on Jan 3rd. Has there been any confirmation that the PEA has begun since? It looks to me that this was an intentionally vague statement ("initiation" / "commencement" / "later in 2018"), knowing that the point at which it would make sense to begin these studies would depend upon drilling progress in the first half of the year. Given the current focus on updating the initial MRE, I would be surprised if any studies have been started yet. I would also be surprised if you actually get a published PEA before the end of the year, and would say that the chances of getting a PFS before this time next year are VERY slim. Just look at SAND, who bought out MARL last year. They have still not completed their PFS, and the Hot Maden ore body is much smaller and presumably much easier to evaluate. These things take a long time and the timescales seem to have a habit of slipping significantly.
But it sounds like you're just throwing round numbers around because it sounds comforting. Multiply out the number of shares in issue by �1 and ask yourself who in their right mind would pay that for something that doesn't have a proven economic viability yet. Yes the resource could double - or whatever multiple - when the next update is published, but they need to get the PEA and PFS completed to prove details beyond just the size of the resource. There's every chance this will become a takeover target, but lot of ground still to cover before a "fair value" bid is likely IMO.
@Hesiod - what interests me though is why would you want to hold now if you're seeing RNS after RNS adding little or nothing to the sp, and you're hoping or expecting the big action to be another year or more away? Do you not have other potentially more lucrative short term investment opportunities rather than watching your money trade sideways here? Unless of course you're trading the dips which I would totally accept is possible and probably wise.
Whilst this is certainly very possible, anyone buying today on a short-term news punt would be well advised to adjust their horizon just a little farther into the future. The share price response to BMN news is often quite muted, and sometimes counter-intuitive in the extreme, and predicting when an RNS will hit is especially difficult with this stock anyway. All of this is really irrelevant though to anyone who's aware of the wider story here, because this is going only one way for the foreseeable future. It does appear that the next wave of the re-rate is underway, so take your seats by all means, but not solely on the expectation of a Tuesday morning flashing dot.
It would take months to pull off a complete branding change, and then they'd spend the next 12 months - if not more - referring to themselves as "blah blah, formally known as SolGold". Just by the time this is no longer required, the bull market will be over and it will be all about gold again ;)