When MARL investors (myself included) were eagerly awaiting the Hot Maden PEA, one of the more knowledgeable posters commented that, on average, a PEA for their "flagship" project will result in an explorer's share price increasing by 10%.
I would thoroughly recommend moving to NZ. Tax laws permit you to bring in the proceeds of any and all asset sales during your first 2 years living there without any hit at all. That's my plan, so no longer worrying about what is or is not inside of an ISA or SIPP in the UK.
@earthling
I have no reason to believe that NM had taken any missteps. One would think that his significant holding here will drive him to further the long term benefit of shareholders (perhaps, out of necessity, at the cost of shorter-term investor outlook), so I don't think SOLG will ever fit the mould of the lifestyle company as SatanClaus described earlier.
The purpose of my post was to dispel any belief that you may have had that getting debt funding would be in any way easy. It just won't. You're going to be talking about a loan for many many tens of millions of dollars, and this is not going to be forthcoming without absolutely thorough and indisputable evidence that the project is viable and that the economic returns will justify the risk that the bank would be taking in providing finance. This will come in the form of a BFS.
Perhaps you knew this.
FWIW, I do see SOLG becoming a good investment again in the future, but I personally do not see it as one now. I am aware of what I believe to be a far better investment over the next 6 to 12 months, where I know you are now also invested. My personal view is that there probably will be interest in buying some or all of SOLG's Ecuador assets next year, but unlike some here, I don't think this happen between now and Christmas. Once there is a PFS on the table, which I would expect in around 12 - 18 months from now, then things will get interesting IMO. Will the share price rise between now and then? I think almost certainly yes, but not significantly (IMO) unless I am wrong about the PFS being what triggers M&A rumours.
I said some time ago that I would predict an sp here of 40p by year end. When I first said this I was accused of being negative. I think those who took that view at the time might have a different view now seeing as that would represent an almost 100% share price increase in the next 5 months. I actually think it's now unlikely that it will happen, but wish those who have decided to invest here good luck in achieving it.
@earthling -
"If it doesn’t won’t be a problem getting a debt funding deal to take to production with Newcrest"
Perhaps true, perhaps not. But don't overlook the fact that this would require a great deal more than the "the revised MRE and PEA plus some substantial drilling on one or more of the other promising projects" that you think they have enough cash to pay for.
To get debt funding for a mine will require PFS and then BFS. Producing these will cost more. A lot more. I think it is almost certainly the case that an additional fund raise would be required before there is any possibility of seeking debt funding for production.
The only difference between SOLG and MARL that matters in terms of drawing comparisons between the potential takeover / aquisition / asset purchase scenarios that applied / apply to the two companies is that MARL had an asset with only one potential buyer. (And that wasn't Sandstorm - all they've done is take it on, and develop it further before it is eventually sold on to that same one potential buyer.)
SOLG moved from AIM to the main market earlier this year and so far there appears to have been no benefit at all. Of course, the BoD might have considered it worth doing during a quiet period for some future benefit, but there was all sorts of talk at the time about how tracker funds would be buying in, yet the share prove movement since then would suggest that did not happen.
I think I am right in saying that GEO is another one of the companies championed by SP Angel. When I attended the 1-2-1 event in London last year, John Mayer was particularly vocal about the (recent-ish) successes of GEO and BMN (and also, to a lesser extent, SOLG). I know which of these three companies I would rather have been invested in in the past 12 months..
Just one thing I would say about HSBC, and that is that they have a truly awful website for share dealing. If this proves to be the only choice then certainly go for it, but look for something... anything... better!
@Alphacomp - "Stingstim - the disconnect has nothing to do with where they are based." I think this should have be caveated with "IMO" since none of us can know for sure why the disconnect exists. Many theories have been - and will continue to be - discussed here, but the reality is likely to be a lot less black and white than to simply say "it is not this" or "it is that".
I think what they know is that the short to medium upside is severely hindered by the warrant and CLNs waiting to be sold into any buying pressure that might materialise here. And given that most AIM investors are looking for high-risk, high-reward, short-term gains, I find it hard to imagine anyone choosing this as the most worthy contender for their investment given the countless number of other AIM-listed stocks offering that type of investment opportunity without having the baggage of such an enormous overhang.
That would surely be because it checks for phrases such as "wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend", "golden tickets", "choo choo", "market maker manipulation", "US markets opening soon" etc. etc. etc., none of which will have been uttered here in months because there's been nothing to get very excited about in that time frame.
Whilst I sympathise with that view to a point, I think it will really only hold true for "intermediate" news. Once we have definitive flow results - whether good or bad - the share price will (IMO) move confidently in the appropriate direction. Ofc, if the news is good, those who intend to hold longer term must accept that there will be many willing and ready to cash in on the short term upside. The question is of course how much money will move in here to replace them. If the results are sufficiently good, the answer to that is probably many million barrel-loads.
@FTNY - I know nowt about the tax situation in Ecuador, but worth bearing in mind that there would (presumably) be some tax to pay on that windfall were it to come. And I would guess that having that amount of cash in the bank over a period of months or years would provide multiple opportunities for the tax man to raid. So perhaps better if any deal provides for a recurring revenue stream rather than a one off payment.
@Nickderby - you said that you think the Sojitz buyout is not dependent upon the mining charter, but would you not agree that if 26% becomes 30% then having Sojitz still holding their % will shift some of the burden onto them? Would you not agree therefore that waiting for clarity on the mining charter has a high chance of enabling BMN to negotiate a better price from Sojitz?
Absolutely. Nothing to suggest that. But a lot of risk aversion nonetheless. As has been said here many times, if you're planning to hold until the results (or longer), it matters not one jot. It only matters for is those looking for an exit point pre-results.