Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I am starting to think that for POG, rate rise and bank failures is more beneficial than, pausing or monetary easing..

How to put off investors

Obviously with POG staying above $1900

HUM sp should double by commercial production achieved at Kouroussa in Q4, by then we will also get confirmation of low cost and steady production from Yanfolila.

By Q2/24 half year profit should hit £40 millions and HUM sp be above 50p for a market cap of £300million and a PE of 3/4.

H1/25 all debit paid.

Https://www.investing.com/news/economy/ny-fed-report-finds-decline-in-downside-economic-risks-3084844

Talking about buls#'it talks...

So these overpaid luminaires of the financial world, when they make an economic assessment, they come up with phrases like "even as it eased a bit".

Https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-cools-off-after-the-rally-and-chooses-a-path-forward-200638183

https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-after-minicrash-to-below-2000-whats-the-chance-for-upside-200638171

..As from above many theories of many support lines some been stronger than other.

I personally would disregard completely the prediction on....

Next support line is at 1968 followed by 1946, 1926 ,1902, 1873 and finally 1824.

With Fed rhetoric threatening of further rate rise if bla bla bla.....the direction of the U$D is piloted wherever they like it to go. Hence POG is just a passenger with no relevant fundamentals to show for..

Sometime I wonder what is the need for all these post rate decision statements from Fed members clown.....I know stupid question.

Kind of like they are getting the best of both worlds right now, no more rate rise, no danger of further bank failures, but still managing to portrait an image of relative strong U$D to the world . Is a balancing act that they have been doing for decades.

POG was at this levels in mid 2020 and again in 2022, if we are to price in 2.5 years of inflation one would be excused to think that there is more upside to come from gold, especially if this inflation is "sticky" as some says.

The Fed is at a cross road with rates, would be interesting their actions more that they talks going forward, especially if inflation don't subside..

More further rate rise could have the opposite effect on the U$D, increasing the chance of a recession and bank failure.

With all these variables and politics in play, imo is very difficult to be specific on POG support, I see it more as a long term game.

I believe is a Chinese company bringing money to Chaarat.

Just wondering for the same money they could have bought HUM and cleared its debit, meaning that going forward they would have made some 40% return on investment per year.

In any case lots is happening in the gold mining space on merger and acquisitions..

I wouldn't be surprised at such low price if we get and offer from the Chinese.

We have another project for 200k/oz production with DUGBE GOLD MINE in Liberia.

Yes you can Evraz even if is not straight forward indeed..

If the deal goes trough...

£200 million at 20p plus current 688 millions at = 1.68 billion shares at 16.5p for a market cap of 280 million.

They also had net debit of some $50 millions and current production of 50k/oz.

Hence they will be valued £280 million with some £150 million in cash, which is possibly what they need in capex to bring a project to production for x amount of oz per year, in 2/3 years time.

By then HUM will have cleared its debit, have cash in the bank and be paying dividend.

Massive drop during NYMEX trading hours.....funny story.

Physical in the sense of central bank buying rather than jewellery...

Market is manipulate to create volatility, only way left for financial to make money.

Today retail sale comes lower that expected, gold price spike left and right to close stops, and of course in stead of rising it goes down .

Let see if 1950/60 holds..

Also to add that very few shares available given that only 56million shares issued and 45% in institutional investors hands.

Meaning that when this is starting to rise will be very fast, and any news out will probably gat higher sp.

Its a good place to be right now, but all still very much dependant on continued operation success in order for value to reveal itself.=================================

Indeed continued operation success is a point valid for any miner out there.

Difference is that some gold miners are valued 15/20 times their market cap whereas HUM is potentially making its market cap in profit next year, hence valued at 1/1,5 max.

Realistically though small cap miners in Africa are valued on the range of 4/6 PE.

Which in my opinion is achievable considering that the management is getting its act together and has been proving that with much better bottom line numbers...

Changes are happening and production and POG is increasing.

Definitely an easy opportunity at such low share price.

The market is still pricing in at past loss making Yanfolia mine, some have not realised that Hum management have change things there too.

By ending contract with JCM and implementing cost control and steady production lots of profit will come from Mali Yanfolia too.

Looking at past record of production and costs from Yanfolia, one can be forgiven if may suspect that something doggy was going on at that mine. Contractors stealing gold? Overcharging for equipment, and lazy performance?

If it was only down to ore grade% the management would have not ended the contract with JCM?!

Anyhow AISC in Mali are reaching some of the lowest in the gold mining sector (how they should be in Mali)

and production at last quarters is constant and above 100k/oz.

For this year production should reach above 150k/oz with commercial rate achieved in Q3.

50p share price is easily achievable in 2023/end with gold price at this levels.

Although for traders is justifiable to wait for lower entry, in the end it is a gamble.

With so much potential news flow, talking about 4 moths waiting for a deal that is already done is pathetic and dishonest.

I mean Velocette drill in Norway (part of the JV deal) is due in Q3 that means from June, are you telling me that they will drill Velocette before concluding the deal?

Deal need approval from Norway authorities expecting news in 1-2 moths max and surely before drilling Velocette.

Meanwhile LBE after this deal I am sure is moving forward with negotiating and acquisition, and other exploration drills project...

I am expecting the share price to for a bottom consolidation price at these levels, 18p is the 50% Fib support and on hourly candle the RSI is already giving a Divergence signal (although only hourly).

Thing is if one really believe that by drilling Velocette, LBE will be valued at least its cash or above 40P, its irrelevant speculating on 5% more or less entry price.

I am sure thought hat those liars that imply the deal is not even going to happen will buy at whatever price for 50% profit and bail out.

I am more of the idea of waiting for a successful Velocette drill and the tantalising potential $30 millions payment, is risky but just imagine awaiting 5/6 moths from here and see your investment going up 4/5 times?

Again good luck to those lowlife liar trying to get 5% discount....

Just a simple comparison.

SHAN ramping up second mine to become 100k/oz per year producer. Market Cap £120 millions

HUM ramping up (one month behind) to become 200k/oz per year producer. Market Cap £100 millions

I still cant believe some people see Crypto as an asset...

Where is the value in crypto if it hardly ever be monetised, beside some NFT which function could be achieved even without crypto...

Crypto (the cryptic one) is a technology, I am talking about bitcoin end the like. Great technology to validate transactions, but in reality Central bank hate it otherwise they would not be called central....

Yes Mr it could be that if the USD weakens too much, they may find it difficult to borrow and indeed the rethoric from the Fed going forward could sound like thretening to rise rate, but actually never do it.

Unemployed up PPI down and POG down. Unbelievable

Sound like a kind of wishful think to get back on CEY on the cheep Tornadotony, rather than a proper POG analyses.

Since POG hit 1950 it has been making higher lows

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_1bfd54c7f9aa9831bd1f59f6626779c4.png

Hence it has been forming a rising trendline as support, but before that we have 2008 horizontal short term support.

Noting is impossible but I see plenty of support much before 1950..

If CPI move higher than expected, in theory USD move up and POG move down.

Recently though price reaction to macroeconomics have been quite unpredictable, likely due to future market tying to catch stops...

IMV with POG downside risks right now are overweighting upside...especially after recently failing to make new all time higher.

Have sold all my gold miners last week awaiting a re-entry and indeed, just bought HUM some 7% cheaper..

next trance after CPI depending on direction.

Nice article but it could do without at the end setting a target price.

Target prices are only meaningful if a date is given, otherwise is like to say that I believe soon or later LBE will reach 26P.

Comes September I think will be more near £1, for sure if Velocette drill comes god.

Hopefully this week the sp will for a base/consolidation for then start to move higher, once the consolidation is formed I can't see the sp retracing and it will make higher high all the way to Q3.

Get in b4 is too late.