RE: Mali political risk.5 Aug 2023 17:14
BushyTailed...lolol
Yes admittingly I have posted far too much, for someone claiming to be a sociable person.
I promise that I have almost run out of things to say on Hum subject.
Agree 100% on the validity or not of EWP website ratings, not only these are based on statistic data, but they fail to take in to account the fast changing nature, of some part of the World compared to others...
More over (imo more importantly) one should be able to scrutinise, the initial input values, that that computer model of risk/ratio is using.
Indeed a political risk assessment is not necessary an investment risk assessment, and also some initial valued could be biased, depending on the perceived values of the creator of that comp/model, a bit like in AI.
Anyhow as I have ample time available, I had a good read at the history of recent coups in Mali..
At the end there are "conclusions" for a quicker read.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/mali/304-transition-au-mali-preserver-laspiration-au-changement
Also this from the UK Gov. website:
Is the follow up of why now elections will be in 2024 and not in 2022.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9636/CBP-9636.pdf
As you say BlackHopper the decline of French and UN involvement in the country is unfortunate but having YAN in the far SW of Mali is of course the best place.
In the above linked/articles, they claim that actually one of the reasons why there as been a coup (the first in 2020) is exactly because dissatisfaction by Mali military and population, with the UN and the French, to resolve insurgence and violence in rural parts of Mali, by the jihadists....
I suspect with the second coup the US and the French military, tuck the opportunity/excuse to withdraw their troops and save face at the same time.
I believe that risk/reward are priced in a share all the times, hence if nothing specific has changed for the company/share, the rest are rumours.
It would be sad to sell HUM shares at such low price, for then see them in 1 year time at 4 time ..or whatever their value.
Moreover because is not my nature to deceive others (at the best of my knowledge and intentions) I do get a bit angry when others do it.
In concussion after reading a bit more info on Mali political situation, I am even more convinced that our Yan mine is super safe.
I suspect problem with jihadists in the country are un rural areas and possibly regard appropriation of herds and cattle,
but this is my pure speculation...would be interesting to know why there are these clashes.
If there was any issue of gold been stolen from any foreign mine in Mali, I think the news would quickly spread.
Is also likely that you and me will not be the first to know this, but still I would like to read the news first and then make my decisions, rather than jumping to conclusion. Anyone is different with own investment criteria....
Have a nice week end.
I'll be back!