Member Info for LuckyLuciano

.....Just to add, previous post was not a financial advise, indeed be aware of the technical of the Nasdaq right now, whereas RSI-Day is very much divergent from index and in overbought.

Sorry to intrude with a non directly related LLOY topic but.....hey! Are you keeping an eye on the US AI/Tech sector?

I am reading posters like "another good week" possibly thankful because LLOY share as not gone down, meanwhile there is a huge tech bubble in the making happening. I am sure some savvy investors on here "possibly the non Sun newspaper readers" have some holding on US tech but just saying.......yesterday AMD up 7%, again!!

POO has broken short term uptrend since 3rd Jan and heading for support at 70.45$ longer upward trend.

US macro data out today retails and tomorrow jobs and manufacturing and oil inventory, kind a pivotal point for POO.

Have recent talks of delayed rate drop being already baked in the POO, or more to come with negative macros?

Also AI/IT growth stocks seem too hot atm, but is another story....

Down 8% today on Q3 production number, this even if are better than previous quarters.

Hmmmm I am a bit concerned on the whole sector in view of this market reaction, I mean Barrick is trading at some PE of 37, a bit steep imo, and I wonder if a correction of the gold major, will affect also the smaller miners in the sector.

Also trading update new coming this week? Beside production, there should be more info on acquisition, possibly a catalyst to put a solid floor on sp to a higher trading range....needs to go past 320ish again and looking for 330/360.

Noting wrong with taking profit after a 30% overnight rise, lots of investors did the same.

Short terms I see it still on the up, but with limited gains.

Unfortunate macro events are keeping a support and the economies are not expected to go into recession any time soon.

Recent drop from above 90$ seem to have run its course and price starts to make higher lows.

HBR has shown to be very well supported by any drop in sp, imo with oil staying above 70$

it should regain 300/310 range.

After initial volatility post merger HBR sp has regain its correlation with oil price, see graph, hence is possible that wise traders will buy in on Monday, to push price higher from here.

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_2327febb1f25300937318fe78e716c0f.png

Something funny is happening right now in the US Indexes.

I am a bit weary when only mega caps manage to close in the green....is some kind of polarization and it calls for a tuning point.

Then again, lost of cash always need to find home these days, think of all the money printing after pandemic.

For the next 2 years we could whiteness another tech bubble, with some few other winning sectors (if) here and there, till another bubble will bust for the next cycle ?!

Banks were supposed to make money with high rates, if now rates will start to come down , what next?

Hi

indeed uncertain times right now we are kind of a cross road in the economies with added geopolitics....lol one may say nothing has changed then.

For POG many analysts are predicting an average price of $2120ish, important data to kick of Q1 trend is Thursday 11th inflation data from the US.

I think though $2120$ prediction is just a safe bet forecast, due to the anomalies of current market forces at play. What I mean is that of recent there as been some of the most extreme geopolitical events, which seems to have less and less effects on asset markets, beside the ever more important focus on rate and inflation. But we all know that Fed rate decisions often are not based on correlated financial data, if anything one could say that given the current US economy and low growth, a contrarian view would be that even if inflation data comes out a bit hot, it will not imply that rate will go up....and we are back to a situation of no man land....and uncertainty.

Possibly creating a market dominated by geo-news flow till visibility in the economies is more clear, this could last more than 1 year imo.

Best approach for POG is sit tight and average down for the long terms.

Agree ZAR/USD ratio correlation to PAF sp, possibly is not the main driving factor. If anything in order of importance there is POG, Production (whereas Production affect the sp more directly) then there is USD/GBP with the exponential of POG, which some time is not correlated to USD Index, all in the context of PAF sp been quoted in GBP.

But given the spread of PAF sp not sure if these data are worth following.

I got in recently a bit too hot on my entrance price. Planning to average down if/when the time is right.

I sold at a loss when stupidly I could have taken profit earlier that because back then I believed in the potential of the company and I didn't realised how f@king useless was Dan.

Share issued at lower price IS dilutions, more over I believe CIG are in also with a big chunk at 7p, able to sell comes spring 24. The sp looks doomed, forget about talks of multiples from here.

Also and more importantly they keep postponing commercial production at the new mine, everything that could have gone wrong is going wrong.

Good luck with this one, surely not for the long terms..

Just for the sake of conversation, I find it hard to understand the concept of energy self-sufficient.

From a Gov. point of view all it wants is either get energy at the cheapest possible price for the country

or tax as much as possible companies to buy energy at the cheapest possible price.

We live in a free market economies.

Make of it what you wish..

https://www.investing.com/analysis/precious-metals-slide-restarts-where-will-it-end-200643419

BT thank you.

...and by the way it wouldn't be preposterous if someone would start to think that

some how, someone, is milking the mines......youknowimean?

BT

as you are asking for it, I feel obliged to reply.

For start your assumption to debt peak are false, just assumptions.

Secondly you statement of reaching name plate is also a massive buls@it.

There you are, having to make false statement just to be able to kind of been sarcastic.....really? Is this who you are?

I never said to be a prudent investor, but beside risk/reward with HUM, what I didn't like now that I have a bigger picture of the management, is the complacency that a rich spoiled kid at the helm of this company is showing.

A good clue come from Dan Betts recent interview, which protracted a man upset and irritated by a share price that touched recent lows, mainly imo due to lack of news from Kour ramping up progress.

Now the news are out, not even 2000/oz since June from Kour !? WDF

Not even encouraging words from the month of October?

The tone of the Q3 imo was very down beat, yes they probably will achieve revised production but hey

10000k/oz in 6 moths ramp up phase? What are going to be the AISC $10000 ?

I am not going to go into ASIC and full 2023 result, better not....

And what about if in 2024 POG dips? Talking about peak debt...please!

You see investing is not just about number and logic and calculations, for me is also about getting a feeling of the people running the business, and trust me is as important as the POG.

So I get the picture of DB, now that I know a bit more of him. Agree stating a gold mine in Africa is not a easy thing,

even less in a new Country, but I didn't see the humility in DB to be able to listen, comprehend and change things.

Hence he come across a trial and error kind of guy, add to that the fact that he is not a miner by trade...

Guys and girls whish sincerely good luck with your investment, remember the old say, a profit is always a profit.

Hi anon3 thanks for your concern.

Most of my eggs are on Invictus Energy AUX right now soon (finger crossed) to make an oil discovery in Zimbabwe.

I refrained to post on here for respect toward holders, because didn't what to be negative.

This is how I am, I speak my mind how and when I see fit to do so, but i am not a de-ramper just for the sake of my own interest.

As stated circumstances changed with HUM, last report was at best underwhelming, and imo cast doubt on Kour, been a repeat of Yanfolilla early years. I have lost faith in the clown at the helm of Hum and exited at a small loss.

Bye

· During the quarter, the mining activities centred on overburden removal, resulting in lower-grade material on the ROM pad being fed to the mill. However, as mentioned above, with anticipated improvements in mining productivity during Q4-2023, the Company expects higher-grade sections of the ore body to be accessed, leading to increased gold production rates through the quarter towards full commercial production from FY-2024.=======================

So they could have said this before though, this is simply strip ratios issues and yes maybe also unforeseen wet season weather but.....FFS their forecast skills are so crapp me I say.

TBH I was hoping for a little better results.

..In any case whoever is invested in Hum right now, is not for results or profit, but for the potential of a POG making new record in 2024.

While new POG high would rise all the gold miners sp, imo HUM will be the one that shoot upwards the most as much as the same is valid on the way down.

So what is more likely in 2024 for HUM doubling and more from here?

I tend to think that if Kour would be up to nameplate production, they would have released the news separately, hence possibly some disappointment for tomo Q3 on that front.

Still Q3 is a week late than when normally is released, but a week? Does it make that much difference?

Hence for tomo not so good from Kour but ok from Yanfolilla, plus we get revised AISC and production, maybe some positive from that front ? All in all I thing AISC and Production for 2023 will be fully accomplished, now that Yanfolilla is consistently preforming has it should, then we still await drilling essay and Dugbe news (don't count on that).

On the sp front not so sure, recent rise was more due to POG than imminent news flow, hence since POG is still high and may be going even higher, sp wise I am neutral, but with Hum you need 3 trade sell for the sp to drop, same the other way up...

Maybe any drop will be quickly bought in the next few days. If I was waiting for a entry in Hum I certainly wouldn't buy before news.