Expert Stock Picks5 May 2012 06:04
AG Barr (target price 1,100p)
AG Barr (LSE: BAG), the maker of Irn Bru and owner of a strong stable of other soft drinks brands, is a holding for two of our Expert Eight managers: Nick Train (Lindsell Train UK Equity and Finsbury Growth & Income (LSE: FGT)) and Charles Montanaro (Montanaro UK Focus and Montanaro UK Smaller Companies (LSE: MTU)).
Barr has been a substantial holding for Train for donkey's years. Montanaro is also a long-term holder, but the firm has rather less weight in his portfolio than in Train's.
Barr is trading today at around the same share price as two years ago. Train tells us:
"It seemed plausible enough to us back then that the shares might tread water … Why not sell, find another stock, then trade back into Barr after its couple of years in the doldrums?"
He gives three reasons:
"We were confident of Barr's dividend growth … we covet the long run dividend stream it provides."
"We knew that the strong cash generation would … permit the acquisition of new brands, or … the build of new production capacity for existing brands in a new geography. This cash generation is a competitive advantage for Barr but because opportunities arrive haphazardly, it is impossible to know exactly when the competitive advantage will boost the share price."
"We are always reluctant to sell out of exceptional businesses, except on the most excessive of valuations."
In hindsight it might appear simple to sell a stock like Barr that's going nowhere for a while and to buy back in later, but Train warns:
"In real-time this is not such an easy thing to deduce or execute. Our conviction about the calibre of Barr's business and about the likelihood that its pricing power will protect long term shareholders against the ravages of inflation is much stronger than our conviction that the shares may or may not take a pause for breath."
Wise words indeed, in my view, and applicable for investors not just in Barr but in any high-calibre business.
So, at what price would our pro stockpicker be an enthusiastic buyer of more shares in the company? Answer: "Another 50p lower." Based on the price at which the shares were trading at the time, I put the target at around 1,100p.
Also,
Here's a couple of links about SCLP, one of the hottest stocks at the moment:
http://www.euroinvestor.com/community/discussionthread.aspx?threadid=252803
http://www.euroinvestor.com/community/discussionthread.aspx?threadid=253089