Member Info for LtCaptain

It will be interesting to see if the shorts start unwinding this week. The most recent movements in the last 30 days have been to reduce shorts. However I must add they were for really very small amounts. There's still a total of 3.83% short amongst holders who have shorted more than 0.5% each. Of course there's probably loads more shorters with lesser totals shorted. If they begin to unwind this week, we could see a real surge in the share price. It will be a strong indicator on whether the city and those in the know feel the Apollo situation has legs. Of course, if they begin increasing their shorts, that's another strong indicator on what they know and feel of the situation - it would be a golden opportunity for them to take advantage of a subsequent collapse in SP if the potential bidder pulls out.

£2.1bn is the value of the estate. It was stated in the most recent trading update a couple of days ago. That's pretty impressive for a company with a market cap of just £250m. I get there's debts of circa £1bn, but even with that factored in, there seems to be a big gap between genuine value here and the share price. With a positive outlook being painted as seen in the recent trading update, I feel there will be a rerating in the coming months. Just my humble opinion.

Worth nothing that rather than sell up and cash in, the CEO actually acquired more shares at IPO.

Strong and Stable we were told! Chaos with Ed Miliband we were told! This so called mini-budget we had on Friday was not called for and poorly thought out. All the Tories needed to do was provide a costed plan to cap energy costs for the residential and business markets. Maybe a tweak of the personal tax allowance from £12,500 to £13,500 or something to help the lowest earning people. A proposal for the 1.25% National Insurance to be gradually removed over a period of time maybe. That's about it. Limited overall impact on inflation (the capping of the energy costs would have brought down inflation maybe 2-3 percentage points, some of that given back again by the personal tax allowance change). All limited, targetted, and focussed.

Instead what we got was red meat for Tory donors and a substantially inflationary change. All of it uncosted, unfunded, and covered by increased borrowing! Massively increased borrowing! Why on earth would you remove the 45% tax band at this moment in time? There could be a case for it during the height of an economic boom, but why now, why in the middle of a cost of living crisis when inflation is already running out of control, and government finances on the ropes?

Why drop the 20% tax bracket down to 19% whilst inflation is on the rise? It will only fuel it even more! I'd support this during the good times, but at this moment in time? Plain stupid.

This budget drove gilt yields up sharply. So government borrowing is now even more expensive. It caused a panic in the FX markets and droven GBP down sharply. The pound is being sold off, off the back of this. This only drives up the cost of buying energy products like gas and oil. These are bought on international markets in USD mostly. So the cost of the energy cap to the government has also gone up. Genuine risk of a vicious cycle developing here. A combination of rising energy prices, falling GBP, equals what for the government? an even higher cost for the energy cap. Just madness.

I think Rishi Sunak will be vindicated and the Tory membership made a bad decision putting Liz in Number 10.

This Tory government created a run on the pound. The market had taken some serious fright. The government will need to show it can balance the books. Reversal of the 45p rate of tax? Combined with windfall taxes on energy producers? Raise £150b+ via that combination and some other tweaks here and there? They'll have to do something otherwise we all know what happens in emerging markets where the currency collapses. Their central banks step in and dramatically raise interest rates to stem the falls and bring stability. We could be on for the same here. Unbelievably reckless stuff from this government.

pretty insane stuff... This Tory governmemt has actually delivered a run on the pound.

This Kent brewery was selected to be a Brexit export champion. They were meant to be a shining example of how businesses could seize Brexit opportunities. However it didn't quite work out that way. They're now down to a single EU customer. Gone down from £600k export revenue per year to just £2k a year and that to a single customer who drives over from Berlin to fill up a van. The brewery apparently spent a whole night trying to help the poor German chap get back through customs!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/04/it-was-a-brexit-export-champion-now-kent-brewery-has-one-eu-customer-left

Big vote of confidence here from the CFO. If the CFO is happy to buy at this level, and let's face it, nobody knows about the finances of Marston's better than the CFO, then i think things may have already bottomed out and on their way back to an even keel. Not saying it's boom time... just that we've probably bottomed out now.

I didn't even know this had been going on. The government have clearly not bothered to publicise it very well. I guess nobody want's to talk about Brexit anymore. They pointlessly spent £120m on the festival which included loads of events and so called celebrations etc. They forecasted 66 million people would attend the events in total. In reality only 236,000 people turned up. What an abject failure!

https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/festival-of-brexit-120-million

JBash: Goodness knows! Difficult to work out exactly why the conitnual drip drip drift down for THG. There's a couple of things that could be going on, but they're just speculative reasons with no way to know for sure.
1. Jupiter could be selling down more
2, Goldman Sachs view today that inflation could top 22% next year if gas prices don't fall
3, Broader market decline - there's really poor and weak sentiment for risk right now on the markets

Those are the 3 i can think of. But it could be something else altogether!

Liz Truss appears to be the kind of person who only wants to appear tough and appease the core of the right wing of her party. She'll be terrible for the ordinary person in the country. Maybe a bit more decent for business, just maybe. Although her rhetoric on the EU, if she follows through with it, could wreak some serious damage to the UK's economy. As if we need anymore of that!

Seems Marstons has 814 jobs advertised: https://www.marstonscareers.co.uk/vacancies/vacancy-search-results.aspx

We should do a check in to our local Maston's and report back here once in a while on the status there. I'll visit my local Marstons at some point in the next few days and report back.

Is it the fact that electricity prices are going through the roof, that has led to this decline in the SP? Has that had an impact?

I have a reasonable holding here, and I'm thinking i will add more at some point. Personally, as much as it pains me to say it, I think PODP will probably drift slowly but surely further down and then loiter around sub £1 for the next 12 months. That's just my personal opinion.

I expect this one will be for the back burner for the next 12-18 months. I've no doubt the business model and the product are good and will be successful. Unfortunately the sentiment is not in favour of this kind of business right now in the current climate. I think green issues will take a back seat for a while until we see light at the end of the tunnel with the inflationary pressures and looming recession. Car sales which way are they going to go during a recession?

That decree 520 is old news from around the first week of August. I dont believe it will prevent POLY from pursuing its 'potential' plans to split up the company and spin off the Russian assets. I think if it had any material impact we'd have seen that in the SP and also in market commentary around POLY. We'd have probably had an RNS from the company too. Also bear in mind POLY is not a Russian company. Though it has approximately half its operations there including a market listing in Moscow.
Time to put that decree 520 stuff to bed.

A good question for some to ponder... If Boohoo is struggling, or has cashflow problems, why spend several million £ to buy up a 12% stake in Revolution Beauty? Eapecially when they (the board of directors) know, just as well as we do that the wider economy is likely going into a recession soon.
That really would'nt make sense would it? It suggests to me they have ample cashflow, and sales have at least met expectations. Which BOD would throw several million £ upping a stake in another business when their own business is'nt generating cash and delivering on the bottom line?

It is indeed a waiting game. A takeover here is definitely on the cards. Problem is when? Who knows?! It's a while since the last approach.

We hear alot about British Airways whenever it has any issues, but nothing much anout the other airlines in the group.