Member Info for LtCaptain

Do we think Boohoo will publish it's financial results by 28th of August? Correct me if i'm wrong, but won't they need to halt trading on the london stock exchange if they don't publish in time?

Clearly this has seriously damaged the share price.

Just 1 week ago i mentioned that looking at this company as an outsider and trying to weigh up if there was an case for investment here, it looked bleedingly obvious that a fundraise was going to be necessary. I showed my workings out and explained that this company wouldn't get past June/July without a fundraise necessary.

Then came along LOTM-13 with his infamous deep research and investment case he had supposedly worked out. Apparently with a detailed write up! Here is the link: https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/lotm-13/

Well surprise surprise! It turns out they can't last even 1 month, let alone another 2-3 months.

How could people like LOTM-13 get it so wrong? Good job i didn't invest here. The key to any investment is to look at the cash position of a company, also Free cash flow, and earnings history. MIRI was the worst of all dogs on all 3 counts. So how LOTM-13 could go around saying he'd built up a 1000 page investment case is beyond me.

It would not be if administrative charges were levied to carry out the collection. Courier companies already do that. They charge £15-£20 to do it right now.

The likes of Shein and Temu take full advantage of de-minimis import tax rules. This is where the biggest damage i believe comes from for British businesses like Boohoo and countless others. I don't understand why the government doesn't eliminate or reduce the de-minimis values down to say £10. That would then generate heaps more revenue for the government whilst also boosting British business.

Would anyone like to enlighten me on what the investment case is here?

I can see the SP has declined a fair bit over the last 2-3 years, but I want to know if at the current levels there is an investment case to be made? if so, where do you see S4 sitting SP wise over the next 1-2 years?

Back in January Mirriad reported £4.8M cash in the bank. They also reported £750k per month run rate. So 4 months in from that they would have burnt through £3M already. That leaves behind just £1.8M excluding any revenues during those 4 months. Lets say they had a bumper 4 months and picked up £0.5M. So right now I would hazard a guess they have approx £2.2-3.3M in the bank. Thats less than 3 months of headroom.

Please can somebody explain why they dont think Mirriad need to do another fundraise in the next 2-3 months?

Still too early to jump into BP in my opinion. Oil prices still have some distance to fall first. Sub $50 oil hasn't yet arrived. I'm waiting for that first. I reckon BP could be around £3 during the course of this week. Then plough in and sit on that for a couple of years banking the quarterly dividends and see a steady albeit choppy rise back towards £4.50 then jump out. That's my plan.

Given the situation with the tariffs, the fall in share prices for both companies, and the general situation developing in the world given the Trump trade wars, i see this merger falling apart and being pulled. IMHO

We're heading back towards 1000-1100 i suspect. We've not heard the responses from nations around the world to Trumps tariffs yet. Wait till they announce them.

Given the long transition time and remaining with Marston's until October 2025, it suggests a general career move elsewhere rather than anything to be concerned about. Thoughts?

RNS + Investor sentiment summary: It seems Burberry has arrived at the corner, albeit not yet turned the corner. Investors are excited at the prospect of Burberry actually turning the corner now!

Is the turnaround plan working? inconclusive yet, but certainly looking like it could very well be. Will need to see results for the current quarter to see if Burberry can build on the last one. Should be a very interesting next 2-3 months.

Usually you have 2-3 weeks sometimes more notice ahead of a placing. Boohoo dropped the RNS after market close today, and their placing commences tomorrow, and ends the day after! That in itself tells you the placing and timing of it all has some kind of ulterior motive, and manoeuvres of some kind attached to it. Something very fishy going on. I reckon in my humble opinion the Kamani's are trying to circle the horses and carriages and shore up their position.

Mike Ashley will need to act really fast, literally tomorrow, to get his pants on and make his move. He only has this evening and the morning tomorrow to get his backside in gear and make the move.

Very exciting! I can't wait to see how this pans out.

I have a holding here, but i'm sure as F not putting any more money in.

It's going to be a real wild roller coaster tomorrow and in the coming days. I really don't know where this SP will end up. I guess the bad news of the results is probably largely baked in. The swings will be created by the fallout from the placing, and Mike Ashley's response and next steps.

Can't help feeling this is just the kind of company PE loves.

- A stricken company losing its way after being poorly managed

- An iconic brand with massive intrinsic value in the brand itself

- A company thats making money (albeit a shrinking amount having performed poorly)

- A company ripe for a sharp and quick turnaround under private ownership

- Ready to cash in upon completion of the turnaround in just a few years at most

- Massively depressed valuation compared to recent years (in fact lowest valuation in 14 years!).

I can see Burberry being very vulnerable to takeover by some private equity/turnaround outfit going forward. It's an iconic brand, that has enormous potential. Just been poorly managed. Valuation now sitting at a 15 year low!

Not least that the remediation cost would fall across the next 3 years rather than a hit in a single year. So approx 5 million per year if equally distributed.

Revolution Bars are closing 8 of their branches:

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1704449734419230900/revolution-bars-plunges-amid-closure-of-eight-bars-softer-trading.aspx

It's 2 years from IPO and PODP is approx 90% below the high water mark seen around the time of the IPO.

The trading update a few days ago stated:

"Full year results are now expected to include revenue of at least £63m, adjusted EBITDA loss no greater than £16m and year-end net cash at least £47m. This is ahead of previous guidance of revenue of £60m, adjusted EBITDA loss of £17m and closing net cash of £40-£45m."

The Capital Markets Day presentation detailed how the company is pivoting and adapting. They showcased their transformation plan and how they expect to develop over the next few years.

In terms of the financials (which everyone should be interested in):

"New 2027 financial targets of at least doubling revenue, Free Cash Flow positive, 15% of Group to be recurring revenues, with adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026"

So what do we make of this? In terms of share price, my thinking is that PODP will remain in the 20-30p range for a protracted period of time (at least 8-12 months). Absent of any sudden revelation of a new major transformational contract win, there just isn't the reason for a rerating or positive momentum. Now I suspect things may only start motoring (excuse the pun) in Autumn of 2024 onwards. At this point we'll be gearing up for the UK national elections. Could some new green policies create some fresh impetus and light a fire under the SP? Maybe, maybe not. However a new government could create a positive economic vibe which helps the economy and markets by injecting some optimism. As the old saying goes - a rising tide lifts all boats.

Beyond 2025 things do look rosier. PODP should be well into their transformation programme and we should be seeing some results. If PODP is on track to to achieve this: "adjusted EBITDA positive in 2026" then we should see that being reflected in the share price during 2025.

Overall, i'm saddened to think that PODP is likely to drift around at these dejected levels for as long as I think it will. Though in 2025 I do believe we'll see 60-90p range, and quite probably £1+ in 2026. For holders of PODP (i'm one of those), it's not the news we want to hear. There are far better opportunities out there, so there's a major opportunity cost here. For what it's worth, i don't believe PODP will get back to IPO levels until 2028.

Look forward to hearing all thoughts, and critiques of my thinking.

I agree, good times are indeed waiting for this share. Unfortunately those good times are still 2-3 years away given where PODP is now. The long term potential is phenomenal - but the key words here are 'long term'.

PODP is already well established with a strong and growing network in the UK. The problems however are that it's not yet profitable at the company level, and the incentives at the national government level to switch to electric have been watered down to a ridiculous extent. Therefore anyone hoping to see £1+ again will need to wait upwards of 2 years in my opinion.

In the short term the big risk here is cash burn. How long can PODP go before needing to raise fresh capital?