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As mentioned, it was the worst case scenario, that's why I am saying 7-10p is quite reasonable (even higher if KP keeps the whole project); we will know within the next 4 trading days, in any case IMO.

Why would the Omanis/Chileans chip in 1bln with no equity stake and in effect subsidise the other 75% of shareholders?? If you are right, of course, i.e. no equity stake other than for KP, then the TP should be way higher than 10p, IMO.

Pls read the Note on KP site, dated 25 March, page 2 - "partner for half" i.e the offtakers for 1bln, rest split 70/30, and numerical assumptions on page 3.

"Pending details on the funding structure, as previously, we run valuation on an assumption for a more standard scenario whereby the Company attracts a partner for half of the project portfolio while Kore funds its share of the project through a relatively standard 30/70 equity/debt arrangement. This is a fairly dilutive funding structure and any improvement on that including the envisaged debt/royalty funding package represents further potential upside to our target valuation. Given a strong share price performance since early 2024 led by expectations for the EPC contract finalisation, potential dilution from new equity nearly halved from previous estimates that in turn explains our change in NAV per share estimate for the Group (~9B new shares vs 16B previously, see calculations below). Our diluted number of shares also includes dilution from ~US$11m (assumed $0.5m from the Chairman to be completed) recently raised at 1.7p (~480m new shares) to cover EPC and Early Works related costs."

To clarify, legally a new entity is needed as the bank will lend this SPV specifically for the mine's construction; it will not lend KP2 directly as it needs to ring fence both the loan funds and the uses of this cash; similarly, the offtake partners will inject 1bln to this SPV, out of which the loan installments will be paid until production - and cashflow from mine sales after 2029 will go into the SPV to repay the loan - this is my understanding of the required set up.

99, thank you for comments, my intention was to get some brainstorming from people.

My assumption of no new equity is the BEST SCENARIO, if you read the last Note, they are using £1bln NPV, require 2 bln cash split between the offtake partners (1 bln) and the project finance 1bln; however, they reach a TP of 4.4p because they assume (worst case scenario, and unlikely, as they say) a 30% contribution by KP2 ($300ml) and $700mln by banks. For such a project a new SPV will be formed, I think, from reading the Note and also how project finance works; the offtake partners will put their 1bln into this SPV, the banks the rest (with or w/o KP). So, they apportioned £500mln of NPV to KP so, if no fund raise, then this gives 10p per share; if equity is issued, we have to wait for the actual numbers.

In summary, 4.4p is the lowest (actually now is higher, as the Broker had assumed a lower - current - SP for the new issue), whereas 10p is not an unreasonable number. DYOR, GLA!

Of course Sol, we want new investors to be able to see what's going on; once the big RNSs start to happen, we don't want confusion among fresh investors :)))))

IMO, we'd get news by the 9th June; plus, 7-7.5p will be a strong support (if people don't panic sell).

As a reminder, the last Broker Note (on KP site) gives an NPV of about £1 billion just for the Kola project; if KP2 has a 50% stake in this, with no dilution (offtake partners the other half), it could mean a 10p SP - upon RNS issue. Ignoring the value of Dougou and DX, which becomes immediately more valuable once the Kola project gets on the road (as any buyer will benefit from the 2 projects' synergies - roads, sea access etc). DYOR

I emailed LSE too, they'd update correctly the RNSs soon.

IMO, it's reasonable to say that KP 'd be worth at around £500mln (i.e. 3x min today's SP); however, the Mkt wants to see what/if any dilution will also be required for any equity element towards the Project financing; it's safe to say that out of the $2bl mine cost, the offtake partners (Chileans, Omanis) will contribute at least half; question is, will Chinese/ME banks put in the other half? that's the most bullish scenario i.e zero dilution. In addition, Sharia finance implies zero interest, so would ME banks get convertible bonds instead? that's dilutory in the medium term. Still many unknowns, and this is why the SP could jump substantially if the positive scenarios play out. IMO

Adding to the below, I expect the Broker to issue a Note soon after the RNS (they will just adjust the numbers on their formulae) so those with immediate access will be the first to react.

It all depends on the Valuation post-RNS; if it jumps to 10p and Broker has a TP of eg 12p, I may sell a portion and hold the rest. If it jumps to 5p and TP is eg 10p, I may buy more; so, it's all relative to what the Market price will be Vs the intrinsic value of the share (i.e. undervalued Vs overvalued); at the end of the day, the financing will be just another stepping stone to start of construction and other positive catalysts eg a possible Main Mkt listing, so the KP journey goes on.

5 days left for the RNS to drop :) (excl. today and the 30th) - GLA!

Volumes dropped somewhat and MM wary of sellers, IMO. Without news, this may drag on for a few days.

I emailed them and now METIR has been added.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/company/MET

7 days left (excl Monday and Fri 30 May); I prefer no leaks until then so that the SP will jump - maybe to 7p or more, depending on fine print - so that all holders will benefit the same; then each one will have to decide their next actions - BUY, SELL, HOLD.

We know the potential Sol, the market just wants proof that it can cover its cash needs henceforth; we will know hopefully by eoJune, when the AFS 2024 is released, with the outlook for H2 2025 and the cash b/ce as at 30 May or thereabouts.

"Kore Potash has until 31 MAY 2025 to consider, negotiate IF necessary and settle on the terms...". IMO, this is clear, unlike prior "deadlines" where KP was the "taker" and weaker party (had no choice but to wait for the Chinese etc); it doesn't say "expected" for one, and secondly, there are multiple parties involved (banks, the offtake partners etc), all of which want a fixed date so that they can plan ahead - in any case, why would KP need a delay? It's been briefed all along about the terms and it's a taker (not a lot of leeway for negotiation), thus the time is just needed to wrap the paperwork up.

So, IMO, 30 May (Friday) is the latest for the RNS issue.

Something stirring? how's JSE doing?

My CAPS below.

"The draft financing proposal and Term Sheets are comprehensive and cover the FULL FUNDING requirement for development of the Kola Project, underpinned by a combination of ROYALTY AND PROJECT FINANCE components. Kore Potash has until 31 MAY 2025 to consider, negotiate IF necessary and settle on the terms, following which more specific and DEFINITIVE information, as appropriate, will be SHARED with the market...no DETAILS of the proposed financing will be disclosed until the initial terms set out in the Term Sheets have been finalised, agreed and EXECUTED".

IMO, the main unknown (which will determine the SP post-RNS release) is the equity portion, if any, within the Project Finance component; as Research Notes clearly stipulate, it would directly affect the % of any dilution.

GLA, let's hope JSE next week sets the lead!

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/16/anglian-water-record-fine-contaminating-water-supply