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Https://www.fintechweekly.com/magazine/articles/revolut-value-boosted

if u look at various non-listed entities (some are so called unicorns), the purported valuation usually increases with each funding round; you can read on the internet, plenty of examples (esp for tech cos); so, a Fund buys 2-3% at X£, 1 year later someone else buys another 3% at 2x£ and so - just like that - the entity is now valued (all 100% of it) at 2x£.

DYOR

Seems that those who wanted to exit / take profits have mostly done so.

FWIW, another holding of mine, KP2, jumped from 0.50 to 4p - over 3-4 months on the expectation of news - when the news came, it fell and now it's around 2.90 (but more news expected, so it will shoot up again); this is to explain why the SP can move up, fast - because it was hugely undervalued in the first place.

"The Subscription will complete in two tranches: Tranche A being for 1,250,000 Ordinary Shares and Tranche B for 11,250,000 Ordinary Shares. The Tranche A Ordinary Shares are expected to be admitted to trading on AIM on or around 12 May 2025 ("First Admission") and the Tranche B Ordinary Shares, on or around 9 June 2025 ("Second Admission")."

So, on Monday we have the "small" dilution (about 0.5%) thus not much SP effect to be expected probably; however, the "big" (4.5%) dilution will occur in 1 month -- why? I am just guessing here but, during this period we'd expect at least the Audited FS released and maybe other material news that could move the SP towards the 10-15p range, hence making Quantum's "bet" not so "expensive". IMO

Need to also remember that 20p is just Quantum's entry price, therefore what SP target do they actually have in mind 3-5 years hence, to justify both a reasonable risk-adjusted profit and buying in at 700% above Mkt price (pre-subscription)?

Another reason IMO is lack of available share supply, given that Mgt and Indorama own between 40-50% of stock, and most PIs B/E SP is a lot higher than 7p thus preventing them from selling, even at this SP. If u recall y'day, the Mkt Maker increased the SP immediately at 7p upon the RNS' issue i.e it was not due to market demand but rather, due to a stock rerating in view of the news that had just been made public.

I am sure that the Co is now in profit; could be from Q1 25, or even from Q4 2024; IMO, the next RNS (Audited FS) will confirm this.

Reminder of the 2022 India-related RNS

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SYM/symphony-india-operations-update-a59xwr9picnzeii.html

Mkt cap this morning of 16mln, Quantum mkt cap is implied at almost 50mln; 2024 was probably a B/E year with Sales of 8-8.5 mln, covering 3-3.5mln of Overheads; if India does make soon 10mln extra, that's almost another 6-7mln of Net Profit, easily justifying a jump in the mkt cap by 40-50mln- IMO.

Thus, Quantum may have got a snapshot of what's coming in India.

Jasper...I reckon 2-4 weeks more and we will hear a lot more about the outlook when the Audited Annuals are released.

And we have 2 more positives from this RNS today; a) market will take notice and more serious investors will look at SYM and what it does b) extra cash will assuage any worries about liquidity running low (hence, SYM becomes less risky, but with higher potential).

I'd not be surprised if this investment was not on behalf of a major client of theirs (eg a big corporation) that for competition reasons prefers to stay under the radar for now; no financial advisor would invest their own hard-earned cash at 7x mkt price IMO.

If you remember, last Nov we were wondering why this entity chose options, vesting at 10p (expiry end of 2025);

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SYM/grant-of-options-y7532fnx9ucskx7.html

It'd appear that this is the same Gulf-focused Marketing co i.e. GCC Support Services; is it a coincidence that a US Financial entity has paid almost 7x more than this morning's Mkt price, when the normal practice is to get a discount of 20-30%? Is it a coincidence that the main shareholders paid - again - a Placing price higher than the mkt price (the CEO and Indorama)? These things just don't happen on AIM!

Obviously, the SP might drop due to profit taking etc BUT today's deal is a HUGE signal to the Market about SYM's latent potential; it may not rise to 20p tomorrow but it's headed there - only unknown is when;

Remember we are still waiting to hear about India, SArabia plus the 2024 Audited numbers which may show breakeven or even a small profit.

In summary, the upside is still a lot higher (even from 7p) than the downside; all IMO, DYOR and GLA!

Quantum buying 5+% at 20p, Vs a mkt price of 3p - what have they seen that the Mkt hasn't???

Who knows, other than Summit et al? On the one, delays are normalised, on the other we are getting close, so this time they might actually do it on time.

Important thing is the the Chinese are working on the Early Works without delay so the project itself is proceeding normally. The Terms will be agreed and signed, either in May or June.

India subsidiary might be a reason (one of?) for the delay? If the Revenues are coming in (b4 even approval of the Indian IS), they may need to consolidate their 46% share of these into SYM UK's Audited figures - just a guess, of course.

Final checks before lift off! 1-2 weeks, I reckon, banks and lawyers move slowly.

T2T, actually SYM India site has pics of the employees, there are at least 7 senior managers and their LinkedIn indicates 11+

And FWIW, site and some info on Sym India; don't know where the "2ml Rev" is based, but if true, then SYM UK might no longer incur losses for its Indian share of the venture? seems to have a few employees too.

https://symphonyindia.com/

https://rocketreach.co/symphony-environmental-india-pvt-ltd-profile_b7e33e23c074a12f

The latest that Annual Prelims had been issued, over the past 5 years, was 5 June so we could get this RNS in the next 2-3 weeks; especially given no numbers released since Sept 2024!!!

Just IMO, this delay has a positive feel to it; good numbers and important updates on various fronts should be expected; if nothing exciting was to be released, why wait so many weeks, when past Trading Updates were issued even in late December or early Jan? Why no leaks, if good stuff are expected? Again IMO, this is a small team with both the CEO and CFO owing shares and keeping the cards to their chest.

We will know in about a month, the latest, I reckon. GLA!

The TP of 4.4p was based on $450 Potassium Chloride ($450/mt) at onset of production, thus still 4 years to rise by appx 30%; plenty of time!

Term sheet WILL have a material effect but on the UPSIDE; only question is by what percentage.

Caution in case it falls through but we know that this is 1 in a million? that's the risk you are being warned about.

5p is conservative, today; after the financing is signed, it'd go higher (new Brokers notes will confirm); then we move to start of mine construction, Potash price rising etc, so still many factors to push the SP up; 15p certainly realistic but we need a year maybe for it, minimum?