Member Info for LTbeliever

Anyone knows anything about this (new?) investor? First time I see them on our major investors' list:
https://korepotash.com/investors/aim-rule-26/
Wadeville International 114,358,478 3.34%

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-11785911/Anglo-American-writes-1-4bn-Yorkshire-potash-mine.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490
1.5 bln spent so far by Anglo with no mine until 2027.
I think KP2's cautious approach has been wise IMO; it will cost us 1.5 bln to end of construction - assuming the EPC RNS is issued soon.

RoC Minister is pushing things backstage...he's been very patient.
With the new Cold War playing out, between China n the West I think he will tread carefully; will he dare give our license to the Chinese?

Thanks Fluffy,
Good find. Any publicity is useful;
Anglo announced today 800 mln spending for the Yorkshire mine, production in 4 years.
Once KP2's mine enters construction phase, there should be more interest from the majors IMO.

TDBreaker,
Yes, reality is that we know nothing; however, when consecutive people buy lots of 3m shares (irrespective of price) I start thinking that it's not a coincidence; why spent £25k on a penny stock, with huge political risk and risk of capital loss? You have LTHolders, sitting on big paper losses, who are too scared to average down (due to the risks).
Yes, SP has been higher but that was when the EPC had been expected on time, not 1 year late and threats by the RoC Minister. Something is going on IMO.

On no news and on no Buys...either the MM knows something, or there is a pending significant BUY order;

Any other explanations, anyone?

ROCK,
12p minus the DRC political risk, Rock; but an EPC RNS would mitigate most of that, so maybe 5-6x rise?
I have no idea; let's see what Anglo says on Thursday:
" when it reports annual results on Thursday, it will reveal the amount it will take to reach production at the mine, called Woodsmith, and when that will happen".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/anglo-american-presses-ahead-with-giant-yorkshire-fertiliser-mine-5rwtzsjsq
Some useful comparisons:
a) Sirius sold for £405mln (with no mine); compared to KP2's Mkt cap now of £25mln;
b) Sirius worth £2bln at peak, BEFORE project had started; KP2's?
c) Mine's expected cost = $3.3 bln; KP2's = $1.5bln
"Anglo American will this week lay out plans to bring a multibillion-pound fertiliser mine under the North York Moors National Park into production having rescued the project from the verge of collapse three years ago.
The FTSE 100 mining giant bought Sirius Minerals in March 2020 for £405 million after the latter failed to raise the finance needed to build the mine. But because most investors bought into Sirius at a much higher price, the rescue deal meant that about 85,000 local investors who ploughed their savings into the company lost everything.
Sirius, a former FTSE 250 company, worth close to £2 billion at its peak, predicted the mine would cost $3.3 billion to build, including a tunnel to Teeside where the polyhalite — a type of potash used for fertiliser — would be shipped around the world. Anglo has never put a figure on how much the project will cost, but when it reports annual results on Thursday, it will reveal the amount it will take to reach production at the mine, called Woodsmith, and when that will happen. The sum is expected to top the $3.3 billion Sirius estimated back in 2019. In December, finance director Stephen Pearce said the company planned to take longer building the mine and was increasing the budget so it can process larger volumes of polyhalite and extend its life. Anglo has said the project could run for 50 years. The company has also been widening the two mine shafts. All this means costs higher than Sirius’s estimates. Anglo had earmarked about $2.5 billion for the project.

MM seems to be running out of stock, 0.90 to buy, 0.825 to sell, huge spread.
If people don't sell, SP could soon hit 1p.

£40.000 in total, 3 trades;
good omen? or someone who just likes a gamble?
GLA.

There is a small chance that if the EPC is agreed soon, the finance will have also 99% been arranged for KP2; so, we might still be ahead of them. But, without news, we cannot be sure.
In any case, I see this as positive for KP2 because, with the war expected to drag on in 2023,
a) it puts African potash on the investors' map
b) it shows money is already available for African potash projects.
DYOR

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EML/mandated-lead-arrangers-appointed-for-financing-irnc8t8bnut6nvm.html

At least it shows there is demand by financiers.

My (un)biased take on the price action:
1. EPC RNS is way overdue, so it could be released any day; if it's imminent, then a leak may be possible;
2. Lots of buys, especially in 1m lots; why would anyone risk £8500 if the co is still in a precarious situation?
3. Buys have been almost matched by sells (can't explain those), thereby explaining the lack of an SP rise;
4. MM cannot move the SP much (eg to rerate it upwards) in the absence of an RNS; if they did, it'd be an admission that Price-sensitive info is out there; Co refuting any RNS-worth news to ASX has tied the MM's hands (because sometimes MMs drive SP up or down despite low volumes / lack of news).
My conclusion - something's going on (SP positive IMO) and we will know about it soon;
DYOR

Co confirmed to ASX that they are not aware why the SP rose; if they are preparing an RNS in the next few days, of course they will not admit that there's been a leak. I have seen many such denials before and then an RNS comes along, just a few days later; I am sure the big buys today are NOT random.
If the SP was to rise "abnormally" without an RNS, then the Co might be forced to issue an explanation, after all - but we are not there yet.
GLA

Question:
So, if the ASX closing SP was around 0.97p (pls correct me if wrong), isn't there scope for arbitrage?
Sell everything on ASX at 0.97 and buy on AIM for 0.83? That's an instant profit of almost 20%;
Or do the FX costs and trading fees prevent such action from happening?

Well, maybe there was a "leak"; given that this took place in Australia it could have emanated from Harlequin Inv Ltd? It holds 11% so obviously privy to inside info. D Hathorn also holds 5% (NED, Australia based); so 2 possible sources?
I'm just speculating of course, but I won't be surprised if we get an RNS this week given the action in Australia.

https://miningindaba.com/agendas/agenda-2023

I haven't seen any mention of the RoC Ministrer or Brad; anybody knows anything?

99,
Yes, unless Kola is launched no extra expenses will be incurred so no worries of dilution there as the SP will be substantially higher anyway. Saving also from COO's resignation.
As to all the extra costs after Kola's launch can be directly attributed or not, I really can't say. Let's worry about it once Kola launches :)

99,
Hiring will be needed to just oversee SEPCO's work, as per the RNS pre-Xmas; so yes, It would not cost a lot but still, it'd absorb cash.
ATGuff, now with ALb on our side, I still need to keep my mind sharp :))

ATGuff,
The Co spent 2.6 mln cash in H2 2022, 1.3 mln of which related to Kola Opt. Study; assuming appx 300k was spent on DX, it means that the Co needs about 2mln USD p.a. on admin/salaries etc.
It had 5mln at Y/E 2022; enough for 2023 IF NO major activities take place; however, we know that staff hiring is expected to start soon (H1 23) for the mine construction;
Mkt cap is £27mln = $34 mln;
a) assuming Zero rise in the SP, and the Co needing to raise, say $5ml, to see it through for 1 year minimum this would mean a dilution of appx 15% or a diluted SP of about 0.65p.
b) assuming reasonably that the Co will wait for the EPC RNS to start spending cash at an increased rate, if the SP then rises to, conservatively IMO, 3p (=Mkt cap of $120 mln) then raising even 12 mln means a 10% dilution, reducing the SP to 2.7p.
c) another optimal scenario is a big investor buying eg 50% of DX for (?) $100mln cash? Thus, Zero dilution and instantly rerating the Co to a Mkt cap of, at least, $200 mln (=6p).
All IMO of course, DYOR.