RE: Cash Burn Rate11 Mar 2023 06:17
Thanks ALB, always good to see your numbers.
From the below analysis, it seems that the Co spent about $500k on admin / salaries over H2 2022; the rest was for the Kola exploration/study expenses etc. (non-recurring).
This leaves around $4ml now (which suffice, IF the EPC is announced soon).
"31 Dec - The Company invested US$1,087,000 in exploration in the Quarter, which comprised US$ 729,000 related to the Kola Study and US$358,000 for the DX DFS Study. The Company ended the Quarter with US$5.0 million in cash."
"30 Sept - The Company invested US$ 999,000 in exploration in the Quarter, which comprised US$ 931,000 related to the Kola Study and US$ 68,000 for the DX DFS Study. The Company ended the Quarter with US$ 6.2 million in cash."
We know that funds probably need to be raised in 2023; question is when, for what purpose, how much and on what terms.
1. Existing inst. s/holders will invest; plenty of value for the taking on both Kola and DX projects;
2. In April 2021 (last fund raise) $12.6mln was raised at 1.1p and most of it was spent on exploration and study costs; the SP first rose to 1.75, then fell to 0.75, then rose again (mostly affected by news about Kola).
3. best scenario - EPC is soon announced, SP shoots up and funds are raised with minimal dilution (eg SP ends up around 6-8p);
4. worst scenario - EPC saga drags on, so Co mothballs all activity; quarterly costs remain at $200k-250k per Quarter, so $1m is needed for rest of 2023; will the Co raise funds? For what purpose? Brad could hold on a bit longer.
5. Mkt cap now at $30mln; if it has to raise eg $5m (on proviso that EPC will conclude soon, otherwise why raise 5mln and not less?), that's a 16% dilution - say 30% to make it attractive to the funders; will the SP drop to 0.60p? Or will it jump because the funds are raised because of an imminent deal with SEPCO etc?
I don't know, is the short answer; but, barring a license revocation (biggest risk), I think the downside risk Vs the upside potential probably warrants a decision to wait a few more weeks (The Co should give an update with the Y/E 2022 Results, possibly in 3 weeks).
DYOR, GL to holders.