Member Info for LTbeliever

I just think her Chinese boss forgot the Robot's settings on the "repeat BS, repeat BS" mode...haha

NU,
I'm just happy that people have stopped selling; buying will come soon in any case, 2 weeks appx to go for the Audited FS and an outlook for 2023; this will - IMO - reassure people enough to start scooping shares up.
And if DVRG also comes with positive news, that'd be an additional impetus.

Who knows ATG?
If she posted a picture here...hahaha
In China, where the Robot is based, they "use" dolls... so this one could be a Robo-doll... hahahha

Having said the below, I must state that MSYS is still way undervalued - but, we need news to confirm the turnaround and breakeven (losses and cash burn) sometime in 2023.
DYOR

Sol,
The SP drop roughly approximates the DVRG debt (from say 5p, MCap 3mln, to 3.5p, MCap 2 mln) i.e. about 1mln drop (Vs the 1.4 mln O/S); the Mkt is not yet sure whether and how much MSYS can collect from DVRG so it has discounted most of the debt as non-recoverable;
If someone believes that the debt will be collected in full and is right, the SP will eventually reflect this by a rise of eg 25-30%; however, we are not there yet because we still need - as a minimum -
a) details of the Settlement Plan (eg repayment can be over 6 months, or over 26 months - this will make a difference in MSYS' cash flow and ability to collect),
b) confirmation of DVRG's ability to repay this in full (first step will be DVRG's Audited FS, the net cash, new contracts emerging, the profitability etc).
However, IMO, the SP will rise before the above is resolved, when MSYS releases its own AFS 2022 and new contracts that are non-DVRG related. How much the SP will rise, will of course depend on the RNS' content.
GLA

For the Fundamental Analysts among you, MSYS EV is now zero (even negative); Mkt cap 2mln minus cash of 2.7 mln (ignoring DVRG debt, EV is just 0.6 mln); so, all the technology developed, services and income derived (and expected) from it, are valued at Zero by the Mkt!
Link below compares sector metrics; Sector EV multiple ranges from 12 to 20 (i.e. if MSYS had an EV of eg 1mln, its MCap should range from 12 to 20 mln!
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/MSYS/microsaic-systems-plc/analysis
click on the 4-page pdf, to see sector metrics (2021 though), on second page.

This Robot really cracks me up...hahaha
She seems obsessed with me...guys, any suggestions how to shake off a manic Robot, who thinks itself as an intelligent female?

I agree with you that upside is much higher than downside risk...and more chances of positive news in the next few weeks.
But until then, worries will linger for a lot of people, unfortunately.

I think the mkt is still worried about WCap financing; if/when we get a new major contract, it will put these worries to rest; and once we get the audited FS out, it will be a further vote of confidence that there are no more skeletons in the closet. IMO
In the meantime, some people will be exiting, some averaging down.

it already is, Sol.(2023)
Helium out, sales of almost 2mln just to DVRG in 2022, 2ml pipeline in just Q123;
Just need the AFS22 to confirm that Net margins are going up, outlook23 to show repeat service business and new big collaborators (Kingfield, Chinese etc).
Once we get details of the Settlement Plan for the 1.4mln debt, then nothing will hold us back. IMO

we'll cross that bridge when we reach it; if we need finance it will be because business is booming and we need extra working capital; we can always send him to China, he seems to get along with them. :)

IMO, a lot of questions will be addressed within/by the audited FS; in any case, we know GJB is full of BS and we know that there may be law suits against him; let's not forget that MSYS' predicament (DVRG debt rising from 600k to 1500k in 6 months - H2 22) was created during his watch - any fool knows that he did that to save his xss over at DVRG, by financing DVRG in effect at MSYS expense.
So, let's wait for May and see how things develop; maybe the Chinese will like him and his BS. :)

Very good news from DVRG, it seems that the new BoD and CFO are serious and know what they are doing; best of all, an RNS will detail the Settlement Plan so we will know how soon MSYS will be repaid.
"finalisation of the Settlement Plan will fall to be treated as a related party transaction, and will require notification, under AIM Rule 13. DeepVerge currently expects this agreement to be agreed in due course - and until that point it is able to, and will continue to, pay amounts in line with the Settlement Plan as proposed."

Mdog, you are welcome.
I sincerely hope that your empathy for us MSYS holders will not harm your health. Please, have no worries.

Ok Muggins, thank you for your insightful analysis and above all, your concern for MSYS' holders.

Good luck with your endeavours.

DVRG holders are burned, they will want to keep as far away from both MSYS and DVRG as possible. IMO
In any case, we want DVRG to do well for obvious reasons, so the sooner things calm down the better.

Nu,
why is MSYS taking a hammering?
Y'day it was 3.1-3.8 spread, now it's 3.3-3.6
Bid is up, spread is narrower.

Things at MSYS will calm down by mid-May, once AFS are released. DVRG last year released theirs in June but with these problems their release may be further delayed; I think by then MSYS will give the market an audited opinion as to what it expects from the repayment schedule.

DVRG will also have to publish audited FS soon so if their auditors sign off the Accounts, with a reference to how the debt will be paid off, it means that MSYS will be ok.
If, on the other hand, the auditors can't see a viable way of repayment then the FS will not be finalised, or they will be qualified.
So, either way, we will have a clear picture about the repayment, or if non-viable.

Shandy & Sol,
IMO, the SP drop fully reflects the risk that this 1.4 mln debt will be 100% w/off; therefore, the downside is limited from here but if the 2022 Results & outlook (plus any DVRG developments, short of bankruptcy) are good then it'd have a +ve impact on the SP. I think most PIS are sitting on losses so we are all aware of the risks; the fact that the 2mln pipeline is from new clients, is a plus.
New business RNSs could be probably about China and Kingfield, rather than acrylamide testing (which will take longer to have an impact).
Debt by DVRG rising from c600k at 30 June 22, to 1500k at 31 Dec, indicates a minimum of 900k Sales to DVRG alone; this means that H2 22 Sales were well over 1 mln, and around 2mln (min) for the whole of 2022;
Cash burn, assuming 100k pm opex, was maybe 1.5mln in H2 22; +2.6mln cash minus 900k H2 DVRG debt (1.5-0.6), minus 600k opex (100k pm)? thus leaving 1.1mln at Y/E, minus 300k opex in Q123; gives us 0.8mln today (ignoring any Net Revenues); plus 0.5 due by tax man = 1.3 mln for remaining 8-9 months; add 1.5mln Net profit from the pipeline (big assumption) and we jump to 2.8 mln; this amply covers opex to Y/E and funding WCap (ignoring any collections from DVRG, other debtors and Net Revenues from fresh sales, which are on 30 day terms).