Member Info for lsetown

Forgetting the poor management here (and I wish I had forgotten them much earlier!)

I personally think Sea Lion is unlikely to happen now. The Falkland Islands are remote, they have no oil and gas infrastructure, it will costs loads of money to develop Sea Lion, and the nearest country Argentina is trying its best to stop development. Add to this the current ESG and anti-carbon sentiment and I am almost sure it won't be developed.

We have one thing left Ombrina Mare. But why is this OM arbitration so delayed? Was the last argument spurious from Italy? Could the EU scupper this somehow?

The market cap. here is over 5 times the cash they hold, and they have liabilities.

If OM fails we are done for.

Yes, welcome BDMoil.

If you are like me you and believe that we are close to some real growth here then I reckon you should get that price average down very soon.

Great find. Being picky I suppose they could refuse next week! But I doubt that.

Thanks Surfit, a good point - it is so hard for us private investors to know where we are on just RNSes. We never get to see the contracts (or get paid to do it!).

I hope you are right and it is still on the old terms.

What is great about this company is that if they can get some revenue together they can then start to re-invest it, and there are a lot of things to invest in. Cameroon (Dissoni and the deep stuff) and the 3D seismic in South Africa.

Tower just need a break for once!

To add, I think it was Rpoodle who said this first (thanks). Last year's Navitas Farmout deal was a blinder deal for Premier. They managed to remove the existing ($350 million was it?) carry obligations to Rockhopper.

When the inevitable withdrawal came (from the now Harbour), they had no obligations to pay Rockhopper. It was now an easy exit.

Cyan also pointed out that Premier took so much from us during the FEED that it begs the question whether we should have a forensic accountant involved to look into where the money went.

In these small caps. it seems to me that it is the few people that trade the shares that make the price. Carl's 10% or so was a hefty wack and clearly someone has been selling for a quick profit.

I think this Benjamin Graham quote is apt:

"In the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

On the Navitas involvement.

I'm personally starting to think that Sea Lion will never be developed. Navitas was/is interested, but that was when the UK government was going to pay a chunk. No chance there now in my opinion. Yes Navitas raised $800 million for production in the Gulf of Mexico, but that has the infrastructure already there and it has no political problems - unlike the Falkland Islands.

I sadly reckon we are left with the OM result. But even if we earn something substantial there, what will our BOD do with it?
I fear they will carry on as before, or worse.

If an award comes soon will Harbour try to relieve us of it by offering to sell us their stake in Sea Lion? Last time, we gave PMO our Carry (so they lost any obligation to pay us - great deal that!).

Will Harbour now take our cash? It wouldn't surprise me!

A heartfelt post that last one Sharetime43.

Take a break from investing.

Beluga Energy could be the ideal partner for the farm in because they specialise in trading the oil that we will hopefully be producing. Tower's 51% could get into the hundred's of millions of dollars if Njonji and then Dissoni come through.

I am expecting a total share issue of around 3 billion after all warrants and options are finished. Add in South Africa which could be huge and Namibia then I wouldn't be surprised if this 20 bagged from here, possibly more.

Of course if everything goes against Tower like it has in the past then zero is quite possible!

The share price action could all be down to the fact that 10% or so was recently sold at 80p.

It's only an opportunity?

I know what you mean. A large holder can depress the price while they get involved in the next financing. It's all depressing but as others have said, Monecor's holding is diminishing and we have real news to push this. The warrants and options too will slow us down but if Cameroon gets to production I think we will see it in the share price. I just hope that we can get there without any more equity raises.

That is a bit sad as I have been to the Real Greek once and did feel the same. The starter was great but the main course meat was dry and not particularly hot. Fulham Shore is a good company though (especially the Franco Manca part) and I am sure they will be thinking about the quality.

Has your family sent them feedback?

Thanks Cubane1 - a good listen. Here's a link:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0010x2r

14 mins 20 seconds in or thereabouts.

I agree with you that things don't seem to add up and I think it will be very interesting when we find out Harbour's exit strategy.

$1+ billion has been spent so far to get here. With recent oil prices there must be a stage when the political issues are outweighed by the amount of prospective cash from Sea Lion.

No wonder Navitas are still interested.

They gave themselves around 30 million share options last year - so why would they pay for them with cash?!

The Smiths own just over half of this and there are 50 million shares all in. I think on the last update they said the company has £14 million net cash.

They could offer shareholders say a 50% premium at £1.20 per share and if accepted the 25 million non-family shares at £1.20 would cost them £30 million. There is already £14 million in cash in the company and it can't be too hard to raise a £16 million loan secured from the £5 million plus yearly revenue.

After three years the loan could be repaid and the family would once again own Shoezone with growing big box revenue and possibly £10m plus yearly earnings.

I think that is what I would do if I were in their position.

Good spot HappyInvestor100.

Part of me wants them to lose the licence now (FIG must be fed up) and rely on an OM award only.

But what will the BOD do next? Wind-up in shareholder's interests? I sadly doubt they will do that.

Totally agree.

But we said: "Really? Okay."

You closely inspect company news Cyan - I admire it. But that isn't all there is to be thought about.

Why did we end up where we did? Would PMO have done a time deal for say $xx million less? It was possibly a good choice for all. Did our management think or try this? I doubt it.

They don't appear creative enough to me.

But they can see their salaries and share options.