Member Info for LSBM

Perhaps some news is incoming.

Https://walletinvestor.com/lse-stock-forecast/rpi-stock-prediction

There have been more investors than SWIM, but these have accumulated positions under the radar in multiple large chunks, and I wouldn't be surprised if these were also US-based on purchase timing.

Has anyone found a decent analyst forecast for this? I have a US analyst forecast of 972 in 12 months! I'm wondering whether evaluating tech is a US skill that has yet to reach the UK.

The whole range here: https://www.boots.com/my-health-checked

Loving this article...

"IAG, the parent company of British Airways, among others, is anticipated to benefit from a favorable summer capacity situation, with only a 1.5% increase in seat growth on its routes.

Stifel expects IAG to outperform pre-pandemic margin levels, driven by pricing strength and cost transformation initiatives at British Airways. The group's margin is projected to reach 13.6% this year and 14.3% by 2028.

“With >€1bn excess cash generated p.a. we believe additional share buybacks are likely, further bolstering the already solid 5% yield from regular dividend payments,” analysts noted.

“The share trades broadly in line with the sector and at a ~50% discount to prepandemic levels,” they added."

Yes, although many positives exist, the SP has been uninspiring here for a long time. They need to do better PR with their involvement with AI. I'm expecting great results on 23rd April as this is at a turning point with the US business coming into play. Check out Pinewood here: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/the-exchange-with-christopher-mills-of-harwood-capital-361aa83/

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkZBQLwi8KA

This video explains the deals they are after. They are not looking to manufacture chips but license their protected IP to chip manufacturers. It's not just a one-time license fee but a partnership with ongoing payments, as some tailoring will be required.

Based on this report, it seems a bit steep. Looking at phase and modality. It also depends on whether this is per compound or total buyout. Could it be the marketplace has become more competitive since the TM estimation?

https://www.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpmorgan/documents/cb/insights/outlook/jpm-biopharma-deck-q3-2024-final-ada.pdf

If we needed more funds, the corporate investors would be asked before the shareholders. We all know their tox study has had some direction from an interested party or parties alluded to in the presentations. The closer SAR gets to finishing the study, the more commercially interesting they will be to others, so why would the initial suitors risk someone else coming into the mix? I know it is a frustrating wait, but best-in-class drugs don't materialise quickly. Relative to the failures in this specialism, SAR is doing well.

Thanks Laura for filling in the gaps.

Https://www.youtube.com/embed/8Cm9ydnUWZw

It is a fascinating company at a turning point, in my view. I recently looked at their update, and it seems they have alluded to three clinical papers. Only one has been RNS published so far, so based on what is said in the update, imminent news is due with the other two papers (slide 15). They have successful projects with NHS trusts and want to broaden their capabilities to other areas outside of oncology. Significant restructuring and focus on commercialising projects can see this small 1.6m MCAP double quickly. Already have .5m contract in the bank for this year, and DoseMe US partnership profits are still to be realised with their newly established bioinformatics focus used to bring in revenue to plug the gap of these lumpy 6-18mth contract cycles. Quote from RNS "the Physiomics team has informed the development of over 100 commercial projects, over 50 targets and 75 drugs. Clients include Merck KGaA, Astellas, Bicycle Therapeutics, Numab Therapeutics & CRUK." As others have commented, personalised medicine is the future in this space. But please DYOR

Analysts are very bullish on this based on operating advantages and margins: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/top-stocks/analysts-say-the-iag-share-price-could-hit-500p-in-2025/ar-AA1xa7cI

Which I think requires a minimum of £730m MCAP, reflecting a 7-fold increase.

"Inflammatory Bowel Disease Treatment Market size was valued at USD 22.6 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to witness growth at a CAGR of 6.1% between 2024 and 2032". IBDs affect an estimated 3 million individuals in Europe and 3.1 million in the United States (U.S.) I looked into J&J, and it seems they have the largest share, around 25% of IBD treatments. They have opted for online access, a growing, successful access mode. No surprise, as the average onset age is 15-30 years, and 1 in 3 people need help with resilience, which ultimately affects patient outcomes. This makes perfect sense, which is why J&J invested in the Trellis platform. "Among IBD patients, applying Trellus Elevate™ resulted in over 90% fewer hospitalisations and a reduction of over 70% in emergency room visits. Given the common emotional and mental health struggles associated with a variety of chronic conditions, Trellus Health considers its approach to have potential utility and demand across many conditions."

The key question is, how many patients will J&J provide access to Elevate? This will determine the size of the partnership fees. With a treatment market share of 25% and estimated IBD patients at 3m, we are looking at a decent pool of patients who can benefit.

Also looked into the background of research and it seems the key study: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2024.1486401/full

In the Conflict of interest section reads:

Laurie Keefer, PhD reports research support from Ardelyx and provides consulting to Pfizer, Coprata, and Trellus Health. She is a co-founder and equity owner in Trellus Health and serves on the Board of Directors for the Rome Foundation.

No guesses for who is no.2 in IBD treatments.

https://www.jnj.com/health-and-wellness/understanding-the-toll-of-inflammatory-bowel-disease

https://academic.oup.com/ibdjournal/article/27/6/791/5874745

https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/inflammatory-bowel-disease-treatment-market

Please DYOR

3rd top gainer in the UK as of now. This will attract attention.

We only have a cash runway until mid-year, when SAR will be desperate for cash again. This does not bode well for negotiations. I hope they can secure a deal with whichever partner has directed them.

The MCAP 106m is cheap for free cash US$96.7m, gold revenue of US$191.1 million, and potential from Condor now:

"INVESTMENT CASE FOR A CONSTRUCTION-READY PROJECT

• 82,000 oz gold production p.a. from reserves in La India open pit

• 120,000 oz gold production p.a permitted from 3 x open pits for 8 years

• 150,000 oz gold production p.a. for 9 years by adding underground

• Fully permitted to construct plant & extract ore from 3 open pits

• New SAG Mill purchased in country. Land Purchased, site cleared

• Significant upside potential - 5 Moz Gold District

Potential Strong economics – AISC US$1,039 oz Au

Undervalued: US$26 per oz gold in the ground. High-grade resource/reserve

Undervalued: NPV US$767M, IRR 87%, PBR 0.10 times at US$2,200 oz gold"

This will become another SRB.

What makes you think they have stopped progressing this in the background? They don't need to worry about a full license, as they still have 2.5 years to go on the temporary. They renewed this one with no trouble.

Also, it seems they have renewed their 3-year license.