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Great call. Alex expects Verkhuba deal to be finalised by June. Stated since JORC announced one new NDA signed with others currently being discussed before letting them in the data room. Sounds as tho they've got a prefered bidder and potentially have fleshed out the broader terms already given new players involved but still expects deal done within 2 months.
I would argue TSX/CSE undervalued so if you want a true barometer of what's possible I'd look to ASX over last few years to see what's possible in a good market. Some good success stories actually being valued a lot closer to what they're worth. Otherwise just stick to lse-listed co's for a practical comparison.
Valuing a pre-revenue miner isn't an exact science. Sometimes, the easiest way is to compare apples to AIM-oranges. One of the closest companies and deposits I could find was Phoenix Copper (PXC) & the Empire mine.
Mining-friendly jurisdiction like Kazak, similar sized polymetalic deposit, both open-pit & underground but PXC are a couple years ahead. Empire mine has an M&I + Inferred resource ~33mt @ 0.75% CuEq (majority M&I, of which Cu is 0.39%) for around 250kt of contained copper equiv. Not as much confidence in our deposit due to wider hole distribution but 20.3mt @1.57% CuEq inferred gives us around 320kt of contained copper equiv. They've been on a small run recently but are currently valued at £26m. Considering we have a likely off-take (in some form) in the offing, I think we're only 12months behind them (if that). Given our profile and their valuation, I definitely think £20m m/c isn't impossible within the next 3-6months given expected newsflow (Farmout talks concluding, BHP poprphyr decision, VMS drilling campaign, sedimentary-hosted copper exploration activity etc.).
I don't think the spread is an issue given the recent interest. Yesterday was one of our lowest volume days of recent and the live spread was around 4%. I agree RE:timelines on a deal. Things can be extended so always a possibility. Fundamentally though, we are no way near true value based upon a JORC inferred resource of 20.3mt @ 1.57% copper. Will post something later on a company that is a couple years ahead of us but has a similar resource.
Most mid/large producers do not want the hassle of dealing with non-core licenses for a host of reasons. Risks of litigation due to issues unrelated to the asset of interest, added exploration budgeting towards non-core interests (prev. signed binding agreements), non-core metals (bring up ESG issues) etc.. They don't have time deal with that cr*p. I think it will be a clean transaction solely for Verkhuba.
Given Alex has completely smashed it out the park and delivered a JORC resource on the Open Pit as well as the Underground, lets revisit valuations. Again, this is an ultra-conservative figure but used globally in valuing in-ground inferred resources.
20.3mt @ 1.57% CuEq equates to 318,000t of equivalent Copper - roughly 700m lbs of Copper. At 4c/lb, thats $28m USD which at todays exchange rate is £22.65m. At 218m shares, that's a valuation of 10.39p.
Given we have plenty of capacity and infrastructure nearby as well as being in advanced farm out/take off agreement/sale talks, I'd add a considerable premium to that figure...
I'm sorry Brighty1, this nonchalant "don't shoot the messenger" is complete garbage. This is why these boards become useless as you get ridiculous price ramping through the most braindead "technical analysis". And now you have Gordon aka Earl aka BenNaucer trying to get the link to use it to ramp. If you post a link, vet it beforehand and own it.
Gordonbennett, Earl of Aim, BenNaucer etc. are all the same pump & dump account. Been working around all the stocks recetnyl that have been exciting with operational news like EST etc. They're just oxygen-thieves.